2025 Comparative Analysis of Investment Value for Major Global Broad-Based Indices

Based on data as of December 29, 2025 [0], this report systematically compares the investment value of broad-based indices from A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and U.S. stocks across multiple dimensions including return, risk, technical aspects, and allocation value.

(Note: Some are based on Python statistical standards. For comparison purposes, multi-period standards are also provided for reference.)

• S&P 500 (approx.247 trading days standard): Up approx.18.09% during the period, annualized volatility approx.18.88%, Sharpe ratio approx.1.00 [0]
• NASDAQ (approx.247 trading days standard): Up approx.22.37% during the period, annualized volatility approx.24.54%, Sharpe ratio approx.0.96 [0]
• Hang Seng Index (approx.245 trading days standard): Up approx.29.96% during the period, annualized volatility approx.24.02%, Sharpe ratio approx.1.29 [0]

• Absolute Return Leader
  : NASDAQ leads with an approx.59.78% YTD return [0].
• Risk-Adjusted Return
  : S&P 500’s Sharpe ratio leads across multi-period standards (approx.1.09 or1.00), while Hang Seng Index is also optimal in some standards (approx.1.29) [0].
• Volatility Control
  : S&P500 has the lowest annualized volatility of approx.16.01%, reflecting good stability [0].
• Maximum Drawdown
  : NASDAQ has the highest annualized drawdown of approx.-24.32% with highest volatility; Hang Seng Index and S&P500 have similar drawdown ranges (approx.-19.95% vs -18.90%) [0].

(All above data and conclusions are based on brokerage API and Python statistics [0], and charts are also from [0])

(Chart Description: From left to right, top to bottom: 2025 return trend comparison, annual涨跌幅度, annualized volatility, RSI-14 vs maximum drawdown comparison. Coverage period: Jan 1,2025 to Dec29,2025. Data and chart source: Brokerage API and Python statistics [0])

###1. U.S. Stock Market: Structural Bull Market Continues

• Strong return: YTD approx.46.11% (multi-period standard approx.18.09%) [0]
• Excellent risk-adjusted performance: Sharpe ratio leads across multi-period standards (approx.1.09 or 1.00) [0]
• Best volatility control: Annualized volatility approx.16.01% (or approx.18.88%) [0]
• Healthy technicals: RSI approx.56.2, price above 50-day and 200-day moving averages (+2.06% from 50-day, +10.57% from200-day) [0]

• Valuation pressure: Well-known value investment institution GMO warns that AI-related component stocks are overvalued, with potential correction and style diffusion risks ahead [1]
• High concentration: Market trends are concentrated in a few AI leaders, with obvious structural divergence

• Highest return: YTD approx.59.78% leads [0]
• Tech innovation-driven: AI industry trend continues
• Liquidity-friendly: Macroeconomic environment and capital flows are generally favorable for growth sectors

• High volatility: Annualized volatility approx.21.46% (or approx.24.54%), maximum drawdown approx.-24.32%, high volatility and drawdown risks [0]
• Valuation透支: Popular AI track valuations are already at high levels, with increasing possibility of volatility amplification and style switching [1]

###2. Hong Kong Stock Market: Valuation Repair Trend Established

• Strong rebound in2025: YTD approx.54.30% (multi-period standard approx.29.96%) [0]
• Significant valuation attractiveness: Institutions expect a target range of approx.28,000–30,000 points in the next12 months, relatively low valuation, strong expectations for profit growth recovery from low levels [2]
• Connects Chinese and global capital: Benefits from rebalancing of Sino-US policies and capital flows
• Improved technicals: RSI approx.46.6, in neutral range; +4.86% from 200-day moving average, in trend channel [0]

• High volatility: Annualized volatility approx.24.49% (or approx.24.02%), high market volatility [0]
• Geopolitical and exchange rate sensitivity: More directly affected by macro policies and external shocks
• Liquidity dependence: Changes in international capital flows will amplify volatility

###3. A-Shares Market: Structural Opportunities Expected

• Overall valuation is at a relatively low historical level with sufficient repair space [3][4]
• Policy support intensity increased, steady growth and capital market reforms continue to advance
• Small and medium-cap and growth styles are active, AI, high-end manufacturing and other themes are concerned [3]
• Index stabilized and rebounded during the year, but absolute gains and volatility are not fully covered by tool data

• Valuation depression: Compared with U.S. stocks, the “valuation repair” logic at relatively low valuations still exists [3]
• Domestic demand and policies: Steady growth policies and industrial upgrading (new energy, high-end manufacturing, digital economy) bring structural opportunities [3]
• High volatility: Sensitive to policy and liquidity changes, requires timing and rhythm把握

(Note: This section on A-shares combines supplementary information not directly provided by web searches and brokerage APIs [3][4]; specific valuation indicators such as P/E and P/B are not obtained from this tool result, so no source-free numerical disclosure is made.)

• U.S. Stocks:
  Current levels are in the historical high range (S&P500 +10.57% from 200-day moving average), absolute valuation is not low; AI leaders have high valuations and significant divergence, valuation compression risks need to be vigilant [1].
• Hong Kong Stocks:
  Valuation is still attractive, relatively low compared to major global markets, with greater space for “Davis Double Click” of profit repair and valuation re-rating [2].
• A-Shares:
  From public information, overall valuation is at a low historical position, and the valuation repair logic is strong, but specific P/E and P/B are not obtained from this tool result [3][4].

(Explanation: This paragraph is a qualitative assessment; no specific values such as P/E and P/B are given because such indicators are not provided in the tool results.)

1. Core Allocation (60-70%)
   • S&P500: As core position, balances return and stability [0]
   • Allocation suggestion:40-50%

2. Offensive Allocation (20-30%)
   • NASDAQ: Seize AI and tech growth track opportunities, but pay attention to volatility and drawdown control [0]
   • Allocation suggestion:15-20%

3. Valuation Repair Allocation (10-20%)
   • Hang Seng Index/A-shares: Valuation depression and policy-driven repair opportunities [2][3]
   • Allocation suggestion:10-20%

• U.S. Stocks:
  Pay attention to AI track valuation overdraft and marginal changes in liquidity, prepare for style switching plans [1]
• Hong Kong Stocks:
  High volatility, more affected by macro and policies, need closer tracking and risk hedging [2]
• A-Shares:
  Sensitive to policy and liquidity changes, requires timing and structural adjustment [3]

• Build positions in batches during market corrections to avoid chasing highs
• Rebalance the portfolio quarterly to control single market exposure
• Exchange rate hedging: Appropriate exchange rate risk hedging is recommended for cross-currency allocation

• 🥇
  S&P500:92 points
  — Best balance of return and risk
• 🥈
  NASDAQ:83 points
  — High return but high volatility, suitable for investors with higher risk appetite
• 🥉
  Hang Seng Index:82 points
  — Clear valuation repair logic, upward space expected, but high volatility [0]

• Conservative Investors
  : Take S&P500 as core, moderately allocate Hong Kong stocks/A-shares valuation repair targets
• Aggressive Investors
  : Can increase NASDAQ allocation on the basis of S&P500, use Hong Kong stocks/A-shares as satellite allocation
• 2026 Outlook
  : U.S. stocks continue structural growth, Hong Kong stocks continue valuation repair, A-shares structural opportunities are worth attention

[0] Gilin API Data (including real-time quotes, daily and annual statistics, technical indicators, Python-calculated valuations and scores)
[1] Yahoo Finance - “Major Fund Bearish on S&P500, Names AI Stocks as Overvalued” (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/名基金看淡標指-點名ai股估值過高-140955882.html)
[2] Yahoo Finance - “Hang Seng Index Expected to Reach 28000-30000 Points Next Year, Fed May Cut Rates by75 Basis Points by End of Next Year” (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/恒指明年料28000-30000點聯儲局明年底前或減息75基點-041553549.html)
[3] Web Search and Public Information - Information on 2025 A-shares performance, valuation and policy aspects (Time range: Past 1 month; Sources: Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg Chinese, etc.)
[4] Web Search and Public Information - Discussions on 2025 global assets and A-shares/Hong Kong stocks/U.S. stocks allocation strategies (Time range: Past 1 week; Sources: Financial media and institutional views)