Zijin Mining (2899.HK) 2026 Production, Profit Growth and Investment Value Analysis

Based on my comprehensive analysis of Zijin Mining (2899.HK), I will now provide a detailed assessment of the sustainability of its 2026 production jump and profit growth, as well as the investment value of its multi-metal resource layout.

:

• Year-to-date return rate is as high as
  148.10%
  , rising from HK$14.18 at the start of the year to the latest HK$35.18 [0]
• Annual highest price: HK$36.14 (October 9), lowest price: HK$14.18 (January 2)
• Market capitalization reaches HK$933.4 billion, P/E ratio:19.51x, P/B ratio:5.30x
• Annualized volatility:43.56%, indicating high stock price volatility

:

• Net profit margin:13.91%, operating profit margin:20.11%, ROE as high as30.60%
• Free cash flow:HK$24.063 billion, abundant cash flow
• Conservative accounting policies; high depreciation/capital expenditure ratio means profit still has room to improve as investment projects mature

:

• Julong Copper Mine Phase II
  : Flagship project in Tibet, China; expected to reach full production in2026 and become one of the world’s largest copper mines
• Kamoa Copper Mine
  : World-class copper mine in the DRC, under continuous expansion
• Juno Copper Mine
  : JORC-standard resource project in Serbia

:

• Positive copper price outlook: Goldman Sachs predicts average copper price will hit US$10,710/tonne in H12026
• Global copper supply “structural imbalance”: IEA warns of strategic gap from 2025; new mine development takes15-20 years
• Strong demand: Emerging industries like AI data centers, grid upgrades, EV penetration drive long-term demand

:

• Haiyu Gold Mine
  : World-class gold project in Shandong
• Expansion of existing gold mines and overseas acquisitions

:

• Gold prices soared ~70% in2025, best annual performance since1979
• Goldman Sachs predicts gold price will reach US$4,900 by end-2026
• Global central bank gold buying spree continues: Expected to maintain >750 tonnes in2026
• 43% of central banks say they will increase gold holdings in next12 months

: BIS warns gold prices and US stocks show “bubble characteristics”; need to警惕 correction risks from retail investor irrational frenzy

###3. Lithium Production Growth (Target:130,000 Tonnes)

:

• Overseas lithium projects like Argentina’s 3Q project

:

• Lithium prices rose ~30% cumulatively in2025
• Lithium carbonate prices fell from 2021-2022 highs but show recent stabilization signs
• Long-term EV demand is certain, but short-term oversupply risk exists

• Mineral diversification
  : Copper, gold, lithium, silver, zinc etc. hedge single commodity price risk
• Regional diversification
  : Presence in China (Tibet), DRC, Serbia, Colombia, Peru etc. reduce geopolitical risk

• Julong Copper Mine:9% tax rate (Tibet special policy)
• Serbia projects:15% tax rate
• vs. domestic 25% rate, significantly boosts net profit margin

• Boldly acquired quality assets during industry downturns (2015,2020)
• Kamoa Copper, Timok Copper-Gold prove management’s excellent vision

• Floating profits from listed stocks as extra profit source
• Investment income + core business form “dual-engine drive”

:

• Current ratio:1.20, quick ratio:0.92
• Debt risk classified as “moderate”
• Free cash flow HK$24.063B, abundant liquidity

:

• Current P/E:19.51x (reasonable range)
• P/B:5.30x (reflects market recognition of growth)
• EV/OCF:15.22x (attractive cash flow valuation)

Based on technical data:

• Trend
  : Sideways consolidation, no clear direction
• Support
  : HK$33.34
• Resistance
  : HK$35.84
• MACD
  : Bullish signal
• KDJ
  : K(73.2), D(68.3), J(83.1) (bullish)
• Beta
  :1.25 (higher than market volatility)

: Technicals show consolidation; wait for breakout signal

##2026 Performance Outlook

:

• Copper:1.26M tonnes (+>20% expected)
• Gold:110 tonnes (+>15% expected)
• Silver:610 tonnes
• Lithium:130k tonnes

:

• Copper: High level, expected average US$10,700+/tonne
• Gold: Challenge US$4,900-5,000
• Lithium: Stabilize and recover

:

• 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders: RMB55-56B
• 2026 expected growth:25%-35%
• Key drivers: Production increase, high metal prices, low tax, non-recurring income

1. Certain growth
   :2026 production jump has strong certainty
2. Favorable prices
   : Copper/gold outlook positive, lithium stabilizing
3. Cost advantages
   : Low tax + scale + counter-cyclical M&A
4. Multi-metal hedge
   : Diversify price risk
5. Sound finances
   : Abundant cash flow, controllable debt

1. Price volatility
   : Affected by macro, monetary policy, geopolitics
2. Geopolitical risk
   : High overseas assets exposure
3. Project execution
   : Delays/cost overruns for large mines
4. Valuation risk
   :148% price surge leads to short-term correction pressure
5. Cyclicality
   : Mining industry cyclicality, peak risk

:

• Rating
  : Buy
• Reason
  : Certain production growth, multi-metal layout, reasonable valuation
• Strategy
  : Batch position building, long-term hold

:

• Rating
  : Watch/Follow dip
• Reason
  : Sideways consolidation; wait for breakout
• Strategy
  : Buy near HK$33.34 support; add after breaking HK$35.84 resistance

:

• Rating
  : Neutral to Bullish
• Reason
  : Focus on metal price breakthroughs, project outperformance
• Strategy
  : Option strategies like call options or bull spreads

Enable

for comprehensive analysis:

1. Peer comparison
   : BHP, FCX, Jiangxi Copper
2. Project analysis
   : ROI and capacity ramp-up for major mines
3. ESG assessment
   : Environmental/social/governance risks
4. Macroeconomic sensitivity
   : Performance under different scenarios
5. Valuation
   : Multi-stage DCF model

This analysis is based on public data and does not constitute investment advice. Investment involves risks.

[0] Gilin API Data (Real-time quotes, financial analysis)
[1] Yahoo Finance - Metal Surge, Energy Turmoil:2026 Investment Layout
[2] Yahoo Finance - Gold Surge 60%:2026 Bubble or New Start?