Analysis of Investment Logic and Operation Strategies for Hong Kong Stock Oil & Gas Blue Chips and Internet Leaders

Based on in-depth analysis of Hong Kong stock oil & gas blue chips and internet leaders, I will elaborate on them from two dimensions: investment logic and operation strategies.

1. Valuation Depression Advantage
   • Current P/E is only 7.2x, P/B is 1.12x, at a historical low [0]
   • Valuation discount is significant compared to global oil & gas giants
   • Dividend yield is attractive, suitable for long-term holding

2. Sound Financial Quality
   • Net profit margin of 31.83%, indicating industry leadership [0]
   • ROE of 16.65%, high return on capital [0]
   • Healthy balance sheet, low debt risk [0]
   • Abundant free cash flow, providing a basis for high dividends

3. Industry Cycle & Policy Dividends
   • China’s energy security strategy supports upstream exploration and development
   • Oil prices remaining in a relatively high range supports profitability
   • Large room for valuation repair under the background of state-owned enterprise reform

• Oil price volatility risk
• Geopolitical uncertainty
• Obvious industry cyclical characteristics

1. Valuation Repair Trend
   • Cumulative increase of over 100% in 2024, valuation repaired from historical low [0]
   • Current P/E is 24.53x, still attractive considering profitability [0]
   • Improved regulatory environment, market sentiment is recovering

2. Business Diversification & AI Transformation
   • Net profit margin of 29.93%, ROE of 20.29%, excellent profit quality [0]
   • Four pillar businesses: games, advertising, fintech, cloud services
   • AI large model layout opens new space for future growth

3. Deep Moat
   • WeChat ecosystem has a solid user base
   • Sufficient cash reserves, strong investment capabilities
   • Excellent management team, strong strategic execution

Chart shows: Tencent’s 2024 increase was 103.3%, CNOOC’s was 56.06%, with different upward rhythms and volatility characteristics [0]

• Regulatory policy uncertainty
• Macroeconomic impact on advertising and consumer businesses
• Need for fundamental support after valuation repair

Core Holdings (60-70%):
- CNOOC: 30-40% (Value Investment Target)
- Tencent Holdings: 30-40% (Growth Value Target)

Satellite Positions (30-40%):
- Industry rotation opportunities (ports, coal, etc.)
- Emerging theme investments (AI, new energy, etc.)
- Short-term band operation targets

• Value investment capital: Long-term locked, not easily changed
• Band operation capital: Flexible use, quick in and out
• Cash reserves: Maintain 10-20% to respond to market opportunities

• Reasonable valuation: P/E below industry average or historical median
• Sound finance: ROE>15%, reasonable asset-liability ratio
• Stable dividends: Dividend yield>3% or large growth potential
• Moat: Industry leader, obvious competitive advantage

• Core holdings: Long-term holding for 2-5 years
• Regular evaluation: Re-evaluate after quarterly financial reports
• Dynamic adjustment: Moderately adjust positions based on fundamental changes

Based on technical analysis results [0]:

• Tencent Holdings
  : Currently in a sideways consolidation state, trading range [597.14, 608.86] HKD
• CNOOC
  : Also in sideways consolidation, trading range [20.37, 21.03] HKD
• Beta values: Tencent 0.85, CNOOC 0.33 (relative to Hang Seng Index) [0]

• Break through key resistance level with volume
• RSI rebounds after oversold
• MACD golden cross and KDJ resonance upward
• Fundamental positive catalysts

• Technical indicator divergence
• Price rises with shrinking volume
• Close to historical resistance level
• Excessive short-term increase

• Maximum position for a single stock does not exceed 40%
• Band operation position for a single stock does not exceed 20%
• Keep sufficient cash to respond to additional opportunities

• Value investment: Stop loss only when fundamentals deteriorate
• Band operation: Immediate stop loss when technical breakdown occurs (-5% to -8%)
• Time stop loss: Band operation does not meet expectations for more than 2 weeks

• Partial profit-taking: Reduce position by 50% when target price is reached
• Trailing stop: Take profit when there is a 10% pullback after profit
• Sentiment profit-taking: Reduce position when market is overheated

1. Oil & Gas Sector
   (weight:30-40%): CNOOC as core allocation, pay attention to oil price trends
2. Internet Leaders
   (weight:30-40%): Tencent as core, pay attention to AI and business progress
3. High Dividend Stocks
   (weight:20-30%): Defensive varieties like ports, coal
4. Cash Reserves
   (weight:10-20%): Respond to market fluctuations and opportunities

• Q1
  : Annual report season, focus on performance exceeding expectations opportunities
• Q2
  : After Two Sessions, focus on policy catalysis opportunities
• Q3
  : Interim report season, verify fundamental logic
• Q4
  : Year-end valuation switch, layout for next year

1. Discipline
   : Strictly implement trading discipline, not swayed by market sentiment
2. Patience
   : Value investment needs time to verify, band operation needs to wait for opportunities
3. Learning
   : Continuously research industries and companies to improve cognitive level
4. Risk Control
   : Always put risk control first

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• [0] Jinling API Data - Stock prices, financial indicators, technical analysis
• [1] CNBC - “UBS: How to Prepare for Shocks and Growth Opportunities in 2026” (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/22/prepare-your-portfolio-for-shocks-growth-opportunities-in-2026-per-ubs.html)
• [2] Yahoo Finance - “Kwok Sze Chi: The Market Seems to Want to Further Test the 100-Day and 50-Day Moving Averages” (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/郭思治-大市似欲進-步上試100天及50天線-020603805.html)

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Investment involves risks. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Please make investment decisions based on your own risk tolerance.