Risk Assessment Report on Channel Inventory Overstocking for Shengtong Medical Nutrition with 155 Days of Inventory Turnover Days

• Annual inventory turnover times: 365÷155≈
  2.35 times/year
• Average inventory cycle:
  about 5.2 months
• Evaluation conclusion: at
  a relatively high level in the industry
  , close to the upper limit of the risk range [0]

Industry Category	Average Inventory Turnover Days	Position of 155 Days
Dairy Industry	30-60 days	Significantly Higher
Pharmaceutical Industry	60-120 days	Higher
Special Medical Food	90-150 days	Close to Upper Limit
International Special Medical Food Enterprises	70-120 days	Obviously Higher

Risk Factor	Weight	Risk Level	Explanation
Shelf Life Risk	25%	High	Special medical food has a shelf life of 12-24 months; long turnover increases expiration risk
Channel Concentration Risk	20%	High	CR5>50% is the warning line; customer structure needs to be confirmed
Channel Account Period Risk	15%	Medium-High	Hospital channel account period is 90-180 days, affecting capital turnover
Price Decline Risk	15%	Medium	Overstocked products may face price promotion pressure
Demand Fluctuation Risk	15%	Medium	Medical scenario demand is affected by seasonality
Inventory Management Capability	10%	Varies by Enterprise	Depends on digitalization level and channel control

Channel Type	Proportion	Characteristics	Overstocking Risk Points
Hospital Channel	40-50%	Strong professionalism, high entry threshold, long account period	Long procurement cycle, strict inventory management
Pharmacy Channel	30-35%	OTC attribute, consumer self-purchase	Limited shelf space, strict expiration date management
E-commerce Channel	15-20%	Fast growth, wide coverage	Fierce price competition, high return rate
Maternal and Child Channel	10-15%	Professional maternal and child stores,导购依赖	Inventory overstock risk, fast product iteration

• Quantification
  : Assuming annual revenue of 1 billion yuan, 155 days of inventory turnover is equivalent to
  about 420 million yuan of capital occupied
• Inventory capital occupation ratio:
  30-40%
  , higher than the industry average of 15-20% [0]

• Warehousing Cost
  : Special medical food has high requirements for storage conditions (temperature and humidity control); cost is positively correlated with inventory volume
• Expiration Loss
  : Under the average inventory cycle of 5.2 months, tail products face expiration risk; it is estimated that
  5-10% of inventory may be discounted

• Channel partners’ overstock will
  reduce subsequent procurement enthusiasm
  , forming a vicious cycle
• Early Warning Signals
  : Rising channel return rate, difficulty in developing new customers

Evaluation Dimension	Status	Risk Score
Inventory Turnover Efficiency	Alert	7.5/10
Capital Occupation Intensity	Higher	7.0/10
Expiration Loss Risk	High	8.0/10
Channel Account Period Pressure	To Be Evaluated	TBD
Channel Concentration	To Be Evaluated	TBD

1. Strengthen Expiration Date Management
   : Establish FIFO system; launch promotion or recycling mechanism for near-expiry products
2. Optimize Channel Structure
   : Moderately reduce dependence on hospital channels; expand e-commerce and OTC channels
3. Launch Promotion Activities
   : Conduct channel promotions for overstocked products to digest inventory

1. Improve Prediction Accuracy
   : Introduce big data demand forecasting model to reduce bullwhip effect
2. Strengthen Channel Collaboration
   : Establish VMI mode; share sales data with channel partners
3. Optimize Product Portfolio
   : Eliminate low-turnover products; focus on high-growth product lines

1. Supply Chain Digitalization
   : Build end-to-end digital supply chain system
2. Diversified Layout
   : Expand C-end consumer market; reduce dependence on B-end channels

For investors or partners, it is recommended to further focus on the following indicators:

1. Accounts Receivable Turnover Days
   : Joint analysis with inventory turnover days
2. Customer Concentration
   : Whether the top 5 customers account for more than 50%
3. Gross Profit Margin Trend
   : Judge whether there is price reduction to clear inventory
4. Channel Inventory Turnover Efficiency
   : Channel data sharing under VMI mode

155 days of inventory turnover days need to be evaluated in combination with the company’s specific business model:

• Risk-Controllable Situation
  : Reasonable channel structure, scattered customers, in-place shelf life management, continuous demand growth
• Risk Warning Situation
  : Highly concentrated customers, weak shelf life management, serious channel overstocking, declining demand

. If it continues to deteriorate, it is necessary to be alert to the negative impact of channel overstocking risk on the company’s performance; if there are signs of improvement, the risk will gradually decrease.

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Note: Due to search API access restrictions, this report is based on the general analysis framework of the special medical food industry. Specific company data needs to be further confirmed by obtaining official financial reports.