Investment Value Analysis Report on Walvax Biotechnology

Walvax Biotechnology (300142.SZ) is a leading vaccine and biopharmaceutical R&D enterprise in China, with main products including 13-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine (PCV13), bivalent HPV vaccine, 23-valent pneumococcal vaccine, etc. [0]. As of December 26, 2025, the company’s closing price was 11.30 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 18.072 billion yuan [0].

From the perspective of stock price performance, Walvax Biotechnology has fallen by 9.74% in the past year, 71.10% in three years, and 70.75% in five years [0]. This performance reflects the market’s ongoing concerns about the company’s fundamentals. The current stock price is in a sideways consolidation phase, showing a neutral trend technically (no clear trend), with a trading range of 11.19-11.43 yuan [0].

According to the latest reports, the mRNA vaccine developed by Walvax Biotechnology during the COVID-19 pandemic was only approved for marketing in Indonesia, but

and received a lukewarm response [1]. This situation contrasts sharply with the company’s high investment in the project previously.

1. Missed Market Timing
   : During the COVID-19 pandemic, the global mRNA vaccine market was mainly dominated by Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna. When Walvax’s mRNA vaccine was approved, market demand had dropped significantly, missing the optimal window.

2. Loss of First-Mover Advantage
   : As a latecomer, Walvax Biotechnology needs to prove its value in competition with international giants that have already established brand awareness, which is significantly more difficult.

3. Limited International Channels
   : Compared with the global sales networks of international giants, Walvax Biotechnology’s commercialization capabilities in overseas markets are relatively weak, making it difficult to open up the situation quickly.

Product	Type	Market Position
13-valent pneumococcal vaccine	Independent R&D	Second domestically approved, breaking Pfizer’s monopoly
Bivalent HPV vaccine	Independent R&D	Second domestically produced and approved
23-valent pneumococcal vaccine	Independent R&D	Already on the market

According to industry reports, the

co-developed by Walvax Biotechnology, Fudan University, and Lanque Biotechnology has received a clinical trial approval notice [2]. This is an important layout of the company on the mRNA technology platform.

• Technology Platform Accumulation
  : Through COVID-19 vaccine R&D, Walvax Biotechnology has accumulated R&D experience in the mRNA technology platform
• Policy Support
  : The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has provided a special fund of 4.5 billion yuan to support vaccine R&D and industrialization [1]
• International Foundation
  : The company’s 13-valent pneumococcal vaccine has covered more than 20 countries [1]

• Long R&D Cycle
  : The success rate of a new drug from entering clinical trials to successful launch is only about 5% [2]
• Intense Competition
  : The domestic vaccine industry is facing severe cut-throat competition, with an average price reduction of 40% in the 2024 vaccine centralized procurement [1]
• Cash Flow Pressure
  : Inventory backlogs and cash flow deterioration have become common phenomena in the industry [1]

Indicator	Value	Evaluation
P/E Ratio	367.00x	Extremely high, reflecting high market expectations for the future or valuation bubble
P/B Ratio	1.87x	Relatively reasonable
ROE	0.52%	Extremely low, weak shareholder return capacity
Net Profit Margin	2.05%	Weak profitability
Operating Margin	-6.49%	Operating loss
Current Ratio	3.52	Sufficient liquidity
Debt Risk	Low risk	Stable debt structure [0]

The latest quarterly financial report shows that the company’s revenue was 565 million US dollars, lower than analysts’ expectations of 768 million US dollars, a decrease of 26.50% [0]. This data confirms the operational pressure faced by the company.

Financial analysis shows that the company adopts a

, with a high depreciation/capital expenditure ratio. As investments gradually mature, there may be room for profit improvement [0].

In the first half of 2025, only 6 out of 17 vaccine listed companies achieved profits, and the industry as a whole is facing severe challenges [1]:

• Kanghua Biological
  : The batch issuance volume of rabies vaccines decreased by 43.8%, revenue fell by 55.70% year-on-year, and net profit plummeted by 86.15%
• Zhifei Biological
  : The agency volume of HPV vaccines plummeted by 95.5%, with a net loss of 597 million yuan

The market share of the top 5 enterprises exceeds 70%, and the combined market share of Zhifei Biological, Kangtai Biological, and Walvax Biotechnology reaches 58% [1]. The industry shows an obvious trend of head concentration.

The current P/E valuation is as high as 367 times, far exceeding the industry average. The main reasons include:

• The company has not yet achieved stable profits, so the PE indicator has limited reference significance
• The market gives a high expected premium to the innovative pipeline
• Valuation repair demand after the stock price has fallen sharply from its high

1. R&D Platform Advantage
   : The mRNA technology platform already has clinical transformation capabilities
2. Product Echelon
   : Blockbuster products such as 13-valent pneumococcal vaccine and HPV vaccine have been commercialized
3. International Layout
   : Initial results have been achieved in overseas market expansion

1. Product Revenue Falling Short of Expectations
   : The latest financial report shows that revenue is significantly lower than expected
2. Industry Policy Risk
   : The expansion of centralized procurement may further compress profit margins
3. R&D Failure Risk
   : The success rate of innovative drug R&D is low, with high uncertainty
4. Liquidity Risk
   : Long-term stock price declines may affect refinancing capabilities

Pipeline Stage	Success Rate Range	Applicable Situation for Walvax
Preclinical	30-40%	Basic research stage
Phase I Clinical	50-60%	Some pipelines
Phase II Clinical	30-40%	mRNA herpes zoster vaccine, etc.
Phase III Clinical	60-70%	Core products already on market
Marketing Application	80-90%	Commercialized products

Considering that Walvax Biotechnology’s existing products are already on the market and the in-progress pipelines are in different stages,

, which is higher than the industry average (about 5% success rate from R&D to launch), but still faces significant uncertainties [2].

As a leading enterprise in the domestic vaccine industry, Walvax Biotechnology has certain technical accumulation and market position. However, the company is facing multiple challenges:

• Short-term
  : Performance pressure, revenue falling short of expectations, intensified industry competition
• Mid-term
  : Continuous impact of centralized procurement policies on profit margins
• Long-term
  : The innovative pipeline has potential for success, but with high uncertainty

1. Risk Preference Investors
   : Can pay attention to the progress of the company’s mRNA technology platform and clinical data of the herpes zoster vaccine, but need to strictly control positions
2. Risk Averse Investors
   : It is recommended to wait and see, and wait for signals of fundamental improvement or clearer centralized procurement policies
3. Long-term Investors
   : Pay attention to the value of the company’s R&D platform and international layout, but need to be prepared for long-term holdings

• Revenue growth in subsequent financial reports
• Clinical progress of the mRNA herpes zoster vaccine
• Impact of centralized procurement policies on the company’s core products
• Overseas market expansion progress

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[0] Jinling API - Walvax Biotechnology Company Overview and Financial Analysis Data (December 28, 2025)
[1] Fortune No. - “Expert Analysis: Severe Cut-throat Competition in China’s Vaccine Industry” (December 26, 2025)
[2] 21st Century Business Herald - “China’s Innovative Drugs Enter the Globalization Critical Point, Yunding Xinyao Draws a New Chapter of Advancement” (December 23, 2025)
[3] Sina Finance - “Red Light Again, Walvax’s Vaccine Road is ‘Unstable’” (December 28, 2025)