Semaglutide Supply Chain Shortages and Weight Loss Drug Market Landscape: Competitive Analysis of Novo Nordisk and Chinese & American Pharmaceutical Companies

Semaglutide Supply Chain Shortages and Weight Loss Drug Market Landscape: A Systematic Analysis of Competition Between Novo Nordisk and Chinese & American Pharmaceutical Companies

1. Supply Chain Impact on Novo Nordisk

1.1 Duration and Scope of Supply Constraints

Regulatory and production capacity public information shows that products such as Ozempic (Semaglutide) still face a situation of “constrained supply throughout 2025” in some markets. The switch of some product specifications and packaging and supply constraints indicate that the supply side lags in matching demand, and short-term inventory and channels are still under pressure.

1.2 Capacity Expansion and Capital Expenditure Intensity

To catch up with demand, Novo Nordisk’s capital expenditure and M&A investment in 2024 exceeded DKK 129 billion Danish kroner, including the acquisition of some Catalent fill-finish sites and capacity expansion in Denmark, France, Brazil, China, and the United States. This unprecedented CapEx investment shows the strategic determination to exchange capacity for market share, but it also means short-term cash flow pressure and a phased decline in capital efficiency.

1.3 Mid-term Impact on Performance and Market Position

In the GLP-1 segment, Novo Nordisk’s “volume” share has increased significantly in recent years; public data shows that its overall GLP-1 share has reached more than about 60%. However, supply bottlenecks have led to the diversion of some market demand to competitors, especially in high-dose and weight loss formulations, where accessibility is limited at the prescription and patient ends. In the medium to long term, improved supply after capacity expansion will help restore the growth trajectory, but around 2025 is still a climbing period.

2. Weight Loss Drug Market Landscape and Competitive Situation

2.1 Market Size and Growth Expectations

Third-party research shows that the GLP-1 market for obesity will continue to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of high single digits to low double digits; focusing on the obesity GLP-1 segment, some institutions predict that the scale will reach approximately USD 65.364 billion by 2035, corresponding to a CAGR of about 23.1% from 2025 to 2035. By molecule, Semaglutide’s share in the obesity GLP-1 market will be in a leading position (about 58% share) in 2025, highlighting its status as a “standard therapy”.
From the broader perspective of “obesity drugs”, international investment banks predict that the global potential market peak could reach approximately USD 150 billion by 2035, indicating huge long-term space, but the realization rhythm depends on payment, accessibility, safety, and indication expansion.

2.2 Product and Target Evolution

Single target → multi-target: Tirzepatide (GLP-1/GIP dual target) has shown relative advantages in weight loss in “head-to-head” trials, promoting the market to evolve into a “2+N” pattern (two giants + other competitors).
Formulation innovation: Oral formulations (such as oral Semaglutide) have entered the launch/review stage, which helps improve compliance and coverage population.
Indication expansion: Positive evidence for cardiovascular benefits, fatty liver, sleep apnea, etc., continues to emerge, providing an evidence base for long-term volume growth and payment-side support.

3. Sino-US Pharmaceutical Companies’ Advantage Comparison in the GLP-1 Trillion Track

3.1 Global Leaders: Novo Nordisk vs Eli Lilly

Novo Nordisk: With Semaglutide (Ozempic/Wegovy) as the first-mover foundation, it has an extensive clinical evidence network, long real-world medication time, and deep brand and channel accumulation; however, it once faced “supply tightness” on the supply side and is now filling the gap through aggressive CapEx and M&A of fill-finish sites. Its advantages lie in “first-mover + wide coverage”, while its shortcomings are short-term capacity climbing and clinical efficacy challenges from competitors.
Eli Lilly: Taking Tirzepatide (Mounjaro/Zepbound) as a differentiated grasp, it has shown better weight loss and metabolic index improvement in some “head-to-head” studies; it is accelerating localized capacity layout (such as the upgrade of its Suzhou factory in China) from 2024 to 2025 to ensure supply and seize the market. Its advantages lie in “target innovation + strong sales”, while its shortcomings are the time cost of penetration in the latecomer market and supply chain rhythm.

3.2 US Emerging Players and Biotechs

Viking Therapeutics (VKTX): Focuses on next-generation GLP-1 assets and multi-target exploration; its stock price volatility is high this year, reflecting the market’s sensitivity to its clinical data and competitive position.
Overall profile: US Biotechs are good at innovative breakthroughs in targets/formulations/indications, but subsequent commercialization and capacity undertaking are often completed through external authorization/M&A, and the profit realization path is more uncertain.

3.3 Chinese Pharmaceutical Companies: From “Fast Follow” to “Parallel Running/Local Leadership”

Generics and biosimilars: The core patent of Semaglutide will expire around 2026; the number of domestic biosimilar pipelines is considerable (some companies have their上市 applications accepted, and more than 20 projects have entered the clinical stage). Around 2026 may become the peak period for domestic biosimilars to be approved, which is conducive to reducing payment-side costs and improving accessibility, but it also puts pressure on the original research price system.
Domestic innovative drugs “parallel running”: In Innovent Biologics, Mazdutide (GCG/GLP-1 dual target) has been launched in both weight loss and hypoglycemia indications, and clinical trials show that the weight loss rate is competitive; Hengrui Medicine’s HRS9531 (GLP-1/GIP) also has a weight loss rate in the comparable range in phase III weight loss trials. Some domestic pipelines have localized advantages in adapting to “Chinese population characteristics” (such as fatty liver, visceral fat).
Manufacturing and cost advantages: Domestic enterprises have accumulated experience in CMC and formulation processes, and have potential in cost control, large-scale manufacturing, and overseas supply (such as for emerging markets) in the future.
Payment and channels: The domestic medical insurance negotiation and commercial insurance system are still being improved; the high self-payment ratio suppresses penetration in the short term, and is expected to achieve “volume-price balance” through hierarchical payment (medical insurance + commercial insurance + self-payment) in the long term.

3.4 Comprehensive Advantages/Disadvantages and Competitive Prospects

US ecosystem advantages: High capital market efficiency, strong global payment and pricing capabilities, mature regulatory paths, and complete indication expansion and evidence system construction. Disadvantages include that the payment system is sensitive to cost control, and new entrants need to balance between “efficacy-safety-price”.
Chinese ecosystem advantages: Large demand base, considerable potential incremental space for medical insurance and commercial health insurance, and parallel generics and innovation. There are opportunities to form differentiation in specific populations (such as fatty liver, pre-diabetes) and multi-target/oral formulations. Disadvantages include relatively insufficient experience in global multi-center clinical trials and overseas commercialization, and brand and channel overseas expansion still needs time.

4. Key Observations and Strategic Points (for Enterprises and Investors)

For Novo Nordisk: In the short term, it still needs to pay attention to the rhythm of capacity climbing and supply recovery progress; in the medium term, oral formulations and indication expansion support long-term value. Need to be alert to the marginal impact of competitors’ efficacy challenges in “head-to-head” studies on prescription structure.
For Eli Lilly: Maintain high-quality clinical and academic promotion with Tirzepatide as the grasp, while balancing channel inventory and growth expectations; maintain rhythm in capacity expansion, localized production, and global supply coordination.
For domestic pharmaceutical companies: At the biosimilar level, use “cost + accessibility” as the grasp to expand domestic market volume and gradually explore emerging markets; at the innovative drug level, rely on multi-target, oral formulations, and indication expansion to build differentiation, and improve academic and payment-side recognition through high-quality clinical data, especially “head-to-head” or “bridging” evidence.

References

[0] Jinling API Data (LLY, HUM, VKTX real-time quotes and historical daily lines)
[1] Relevant Reuters reports and Novo Nordisk official website investor materials
[2] TGA (Australian Therapeutic Goods Administration) Ozempic Supply Information Page (updated to end of 2025)
https://www.tga.gov.au/safety/shortages-and-supply-disruptions/medicine-shortages/major-or-ongoing-medicine-shortages/ozempic-semaglutide-supply-information
[3] Novo Nordisk 《Annual Report 2024》: Capacity Expansion and CapEx DKK 129bn
https://www.novonordisk.com/content/dam/nncorp/global/en/investors/irmaterial/annual_report/2025/novo-novordisk-annual-report-2024.pdf
[4] Future Market Insights: Obesity GLP-1 Market, approximately USD 65.364 billion by 2035, CAGR about 23.1%
https://www.futuremarketinsights.com/reports/obesity-glp-1-market
[5] Morgan Stanley: Obesity Drug Market Peak May Reach USD 150 Billion by 2035
https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/weight-loss-medication-market-unstoppable-growth
[6] FDA: Eli Lilly’s Zepbound (Tirzepatide) Approved for Chronic Weight Management
https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/fda-approves-lillys-zepboundtm-tirzepatide-chronic-weight
[7] 21st Century Business Herald: Tirzepatide “Head-to-Head” Trial Outperforms Semaglutide, GLP-1 Enters “Dual Oligopoly” Pattern
https://m.21jingji.com/article/20250514/ddf13a2b3800cc2adc357b0a8757ee80.html
[8] Caixin/Sina Finance: Semaglutide and Tirzepatide Prices Decline, Domestic Generics and Innovations Approved Concentratedly Around 2026
https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2025-12-27/doc-inhefcys0206757.shtml
https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202512273603578694.html
[9] Jiemian News: Domestic Weight Loss Drug Launch Tide and Multi-Target Layout
https://m.jiemian.com/article/13796438.html
[10] Industry Media: Multinational Giants’ Capacity Expansion in China and Local Innovation Follow-Up
https://www.phirda.com/artilce_38614.html?module=trackingCodeGenerator
[11] Roots Analysis: GLP-1 Market Segmentation and Geographic Pattern by 2035
https://www.rootsanalysis.com/reports/glp-1-market.html

Chart Explanations (Based on Python Plotting and Brokerage API Data)

LLY vs VKTX Price Trend Comparison
(2025): X-axis is month, Y-axis is LLY and VKTX prices respectively. It can be seen that Eli Lilly’s stock price rose strongly during the year, and Viking Therapeutics fluctuated significantly driven by R&D news. Data source: [0].
LLY vs SPY Volatility and Beta
: In 2025, LLY’s annualized volatility was about 40.7%, significantly higher than SPY (about 19.6%), and LLY/SPY Beta was about 0.63, showing the high Beta attribute and amplified volatility of weight loss drug assets. Data source: [0].
VKTX Monthly Return Distribution Box Plot
(2025): Viking Therapeutics had large positive and negative extreme returns in specific months, reflecting the significant impact of pipeline progress and market sentiment on its stock price. Data source: [0].

Semaglutide Supply Chain Shortages and Weight Loss Drug Market Landscape: Competitive Analysis of Novo Nordisk and Chinese & American Pharmaceutical Companies

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