Tail Co., Ltd. (002347) Fundamental and Stock Price Volatility Risk Assessment

1. Company Fundamental and Valuation Profile

Market Capitalization and Valuation: According to brokerage API data, the market capitalization is approximately $46.9 billion (about RMB 32 billion), and the current stock price is around 9.30 yuan; the P/E ratio is about -201x (negative due to profitability turning negative), and the P/B ratio is about 4.10x, indicating high valuation and profit pressure. Reference: Company Overview and Real-time Quotes [0].
Profitability: TTM EPS is -0.05 yuan; EPS for the latest quarter (2025-03-31) is -0.02 yuan, with revenue of approximately RMB 310 million, under year-over-year pressure. ROE is -1.97%, net profit margin and operating profit margin are approximately -2.02% and -2.10% respectively, indicating short-term profit pressure. Reference: Company Overview and Financial Reports [0].
Revenue Trend: Revenue as of 2024-12-31 was approximately RMB 337 million; as of 2024-09-29, it was approximately RMB 255 million, showing seasonal fluctuations but no signs of sustained significant improvement. Reference: Profit Performance [0].
Financial Health: Current ratio is about 1.57, quick ratio about 1.20, short-term solvency is acceptable; free cash flow is negative (about -37.19 million yuan), so subsequent cash flow improvement should be monitored. Reference: Financial Analysis [0].
Disclosure and Qualitative Assessment: Financial attitude is neutral, no obvious aggressive accounting policies. Reference: Financial Attitude [0].

2. Quantitative Analysis and Characteristics of Recent Stock Price Volatility

Abnormal Volatility Window: According to brokerage API data, the closing price on 2025-12-24 was 7.68 yuan; on 12-25, it closed at 8.45 yuan (+8.33%, trading volume 65 million shares); on 12-26, it closed at 9.30 yuan (+10.06%, trading volume 95 million shares). The cumulative increase over two days was approximately 21%, with a significant surge in trading volume (the volume on 12-26 reached about 3x the average during the period), meeting the GEM abnormal volatility standard of “cumulative increase deviation exceeding 20% for two consecutive days”. Reference: Real-time Quotes and Price Statistics [0].
Overall Performance During the Period: From 2025-11-01 to 2025-12-26, the stock price rose from about 7.21 yuan to 9.30 yuan, with an interval increase of approximately 29%, a high of 9.30 yuan, a low of 6.51 yuan, and an amplitude of approximately 43%, showing剧烈 fluctuations. The average daily trading volume during the period was about 31 million shares. Reference: Daily Line Data and Statistics [0].
Volatility: The 20-day rolling annualized volatility is approximately 73.4%, indicating a rise in short-term risks. Reference: Python Calculation [0].
Valuation and Price Matching: Against the background of negative profitability (negative TTM P/E), the stock price rose rapidly by approximately 21% in a short period, lacking support from profit improvement. Reference: Company Overview and Real-time Quotes [0].

3. Can Fundamentals Support This Volatility? Matching Assessment

Insufficient Fundamental Support: No obvious improvement in short-term profitability and cash flow; no major changes in disclosed internal and external operating environments (based on announcement口径); no major orders, major asset restructuring or strong profit recovery signals; at the same time, free cash flow is negative, so attention should be paid to subsequent financing pressure and the credibility of operational improvement. Reference: Company Overview, Financial Analysis, Announcement Review (Online Search Announcement Cases) [0][3].
Market Sentiment and Capital Drive Are Stronger: From the perspective of volume-price characteristics (two-day volume-driven rise, surge in trading volume), it more reflects short-term capital promotion and theme speculation attributes rather than fundamental realization. Reference: Price Statistics and Python Calculation [0].
Valuation Perspective: Under the background of high P/B and negative profitability, a sharp upward trend is likely to form valuation overdraft risk, and once sentiment falls, the retracement pressure will be greater. Reference: Valuation Indicators [0].

4. Common Risk Points of GEM Information Disclosure and Stock Price Volatility

Volatility Disclosure and Clarification Obligations: According to relevant regulatory rules (such as the Shenzhen Stock Exchange GEM Listing Rules), the company must verify abnormal volatility and announce that “there are no major information that should be disclosed but not disclosed”. If there are no significant changes in fundamentals, the announcement will mostly reaffirm that “no major changes have occurred in the internal and external operating environment” and prompt rational investment. Such cases are common in GEM company announcements (e.g., Kema Technology and other companies’ volatility announcements). Reference: Online Search Announcement Samples (Kema Technology, etc.) [3].
Fundamental Deviation Risk: When short-term price surges do not match profit and cash flow data, it is easy to appear the cycle of “valuation overdraft—sentiment fall—sharp retracement”. Reference: Comparison of Fundamental Data and Price Trends [0].
Information Disclosure Compliance Risk: Some companies may have delayed, incomplete information disclosure or omissions of major matters; once regulatory intervention (case filing, punishment) occurs, the stock price may suffer significant adjustments. Reference: *ST Changyao and Other Related Case Warnings (Online Search) [4].
Sentiment and Trading Risks: The GEM has generally high volatility and active turnover; after volatility, it is often accompanied by volume expansion and violent shocks, increasing short-term speculative risks. Reference: Volatility and Transaction Analysis [0].

5. Chart Interpretation (Python-generated Charts)

K-line/Price Trend: The chart clearly marks the volatility window on 12-25/12-26, with short-term rise accompanied by significant volume expansion. Reference: Python Visualization [0].
Moving Average: The fast moving averages (5/10 days) cross upward and accelerate significantly, forming an opening with the 20-day moving average, indicating a strengthening trend but increased volatility. Reference: MA Pattern [0].
Trading Volume: The trading volume on the volatility day exceeds the average during the period, indicating increased capital game. Reference: Trading Volume Bar Chart [0].
(Chart links are in the attachment)

6. Comprehensive Judgment and Investment Recommendations

Matching Conclusion: Fundamentals cannot directly explain the magnitude of this volatility; profit and cash flow have not yet formed strong support, and the short-term rise is more driven by capital sentiment.
Risk Warnings:

High Volatility and Retracement Risk: Emotional cooling in a high-volatility environment is likely to lead to rapid retracement;
Valuation Overdraft Risk: Under the combination of high P/B and negative profitability, valuation vulnerability is high;
Information Disclosure Risk: Pay attention to the company’s subsequent announcements and regulatory dynamics to avoid potential compliance risks;
Sector Style Switching Risk: Macroeconomic and style switching will amplify the shocks of theme stocks.

Investment Recommendations:
- Short-term: Control positions and stop-loss, avoid chasing highs, and operate strictly according to fundamental verification and volume rhythm;
- Medium to Long-term: Prioritize the sustainability of profit recovery and cash flow improvement, order and project implementation, as well as corporate governance and information disclosure quality; it is recommended to wait and see or under-allocate before fundamental verification;
- Risk Control Strategy: Set stop-loss/stop-profit discipline, diversify positions, pay attention to exchange and company announcements, and be alert to regulatory and compliance events.

7. References

[0] Jinling API Data: Company Overview, Real-time Quotes, Daily Price Statistics, Financial Analysis, Technical Indicators, Python Calculation and Visualization.
[3] Online Search: Suzhou Kema Material Technology Co., Ltd. Stock Trading Abnormal Volatility Announcement (Announcement Sample, Sorting GEM Volatility Disclosure Caliber) [3].
[4] Online Search: *ST Changyao Case (Warning of Information Disclosure and Compliance Risks) [4].

Tail Co., Ltd. (002347) Fundamental and Stock Price Volatility Risk Assessment

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