Hard Carbon Anode & Silicon-Carbon Porous Carbon Market & Investment Opportunity Assessment

Current news interface is rate-limited. To provide useful progress as soon as possible, we first present a framework assessment and key element list; we will then supplement authoritative news and research report citations ([1][2]…) and attach complete references at the end once the interface is restored. Note: The following framework is based on the background you provided and public information of Dayuan Hard Carbon, and will be anchored one by one with actual sources when the news tool becomes available.

1. Core Points First

• Market growth rate (based on your provided forecast): Sodium-ion battery hard carbon anode from 2 billion to 8 billion yuan (4x) between 2025→2028; porous carbon for silicon-carbon anode from 200 million to7.7 billion yuan (about38.5x) between2025→2028.
• Key cost curve point: Target price of high-end resin-based porous carbon from300,000 to below100,000 yuan/ton (a decrease of about67%).
• Technical threshold anchor: Specific capacity ≥390mAh/g and first-cycle efficiency ≥93% are high performance thresholds for sodium-ion battery hard carbon anodes.
• Risk exposure: Technical route iteration (competition and cooperation between sodium-ion batteries and lithium-ion silicon-carbon), production capacity release rhythm and yield ramp-up, downstream demand rhythm mismatch.

2. Investment Opportunity Assessment Framework (to be anchored one by one with authoritative news/research reports later)
   2.1 Supply Side Judgment

• Enterprise quality: Dayuan Hard Carbon’s angel round financing background (investor: Huizhou Zhongkai Emerging Industry Investment; founder’s resume: former Apple global supply chain director; tech team: Hunan University School of Materials Science and Engineering) reflects the dual genes of “supply chain + technology”.
• Technology and cost route: Specific capacity/first-cycle efficiency indicators and cost reduction target (300k→100k yuan/ton) determine whether the domestic substitution path of “no performance drop, significant cost reduction” can be realized.
• Capacity expansion and yield: Engineering capability from laboratory to 10,000-ton production line is the key to delivering high-speed growth.

2.2 Demand Side Verification (to be anchored with news/research reports later)

• Sodium-ion battery scenarios: Commercialization timing of two-wheelers/low-speed vehicles, energy storage, industrial and commercial scenarios; when the scissors difference with lithium prices will bring an obvious substitution window.
• Silicon-carbon anode scenarios: Penetration rhythm of high-energy-density power batteries/high-end consumer electronics, supporting capabilities such as binders, conductive agents, pre-lithiation that match porous carbon.

2.3 Value Chain Position and Bargaining Power

• Upstream (biomass/resin and other precursors, carbonization/activation/sintering equipment): Focus on capacity synergy and cost fluctuations.
• Midstream (anode material manufacturers): Look at customer structure (introduction status of leading battery factories/automobile companies), technical iteration response speed.
• Downstream (battery factories/vehicle manufacturers/energy storage integration): Long verification cycle but high stickiness; whether long-term agreement prices can be locked.

2.4 Valuation and Transaction Points

• Market size/growth anchor: Sodium-ion hard carbon anode from2 billion to8 billion yuan, silicon-carbon porous carbon from200 million to7.7 billion yuan—high beta attribute is significant.
• Time value:2025-2028 is the realization window; capacity and customer positioning are particularly critical in 2025-2026.
• Early-stage/secondary market trade-off: Angel round projects have high information asymmetry and long exit paths; secondary market needs to track announcements, prospectuses, capacity landing and customer announcements.
• International competition and substitution space: Pay attention to patent layout and quotations of Japanese and Korean leading companies in high-end porous carbon/hard carbon; domestic substitution needs to break through patents and costs simultaneously to achieve cost-effectiveness and timeline clarity.

3. Executable List (to be anchored and supplemented one by one with authoritative news/research reports later)

• Tracking indicators: Capacity planning, production launch rhythm, yield curve, cost breakdown (precursors, energy consumption, equipment depreciation, yield loss), customer introduction and fixed-point announcements.
• M&A integration: Upstream precursors, downstream coating/integration—expected to improve cost and yield through integration.
• Policies and subsidies: Whether policies such as dual carbon/energy storage/new quality productivity have targeted support for sodium-ion batteries and silicon-carbon anodes.
• Risk hedging: Portfolio allocation (sodium-ion + lithium-ion silicon-carbon + traditional graphite), phased investment (increase positions with capacity and customer landing rhythm).
• Due diligence points: Technical verification report, third-party testing and vehicle regulation/energy storage standard verification, supply chain flexibility and emergency plan.

4. Time Rhythm and Verification Nodes (to be anchored with news/research reports later)
   -2025: Production line ramp-up and first batch of customer verification, cost breakdown clarification; sodium-ion batteries achieve large-scale shipment in specific scenarios (e.g., two-wheelers/energy storage).
   -2026: Leading battery factories’ multi-platform introduction; silicon-carbon anodes volume in some high-end vehicle models/consumer electronics.
   -2027: Whether high-end resin-based porous carbon can approach the target of100k yuan/ton, forming an obvious substitution for imports.
   -2028: Market size verification window; leading pattern emerges; valuation switches from beta to alpha (profit/share/margin).

5. Follow-up Steps (to be supplemented immediately after interface restoration)

• Supplement sentence-by-sentence anchoring and [1][2] citations from authoritative news/brokerage research reports, and attach complete references (sources and URLs) at the end of the article.
• Build a sensitivity matrix (cost/yield/price/sales volume) and valuation range based on public data.
• Benchmark patent layout and quotations of domestic and foreign leading companies to clarify the cost-effectiveness and timeline of domestic substitution.

If you need, I can first provide “reference” citations (marked as non-authoritative pending verification) based on prospectuses/patents/company official websites/industry association reports from public channels, and upgrade them to formal citations once the news interface is restored. I can also directly focus on a specific company (e.g., Dayuan Hard Carbon or a specific listed company you specify) to make a more in-depth case-based due diligence list.