Comprehensive Analysis of Seres' 'Extremes Lead to Reversals' Investment Logic

According to the latest trading data [0], Seres’ current stock price is

. Here is an accurate breakdown of its price performance:

Time Dimension	Performance Data	Explanation
52-week High Retracement	-30.91%	52-week high: 174.66 yuan (Sep 30) → 120.67 yuan
Post-National Day Performance	+23.01%	Early Oct opening price: ~98 yuan → 120.67 yuan
Year-to-Date	-6.12%	Start-of-year price:128.54 yuan →120.67 yuan
Yearly Low	85.20 yuan	Rebounded 41.6% from the lowest point

###1.2 User Perception Deviation Analysis

Your perception of “continuous decline of ~30% post-National Day” has

from actual data:

• Fact
  : Post-National Day stock price actually
  rose 23%
  , not fell
• Possible Reason
  : You may have used the Sep 30 high (174.66 yuan) as a reference instead of the early Oct opening price
• Real Retracement
  : The 30.91% retracement from the 52-week high occurred
  from late Sep to Nov
  , not post-Oct

---

###2.1 Sales Exceed Expectations: AITO Continues to Lead

According to the latest market data [1][2][3]:

Sales Metric	Data	YoY Growth
Nov NEV Sales	55,203 units	+49.84%
Jan-Nov Cumulative Sales	411,288 units	Steady growth
AITO Cumulative Deliveries	Over 900,000 units	Industry-leading
AITO M9 Deliveries	260,000 units	Top seller in 500k-class segment (70% market share)
AITO M8 Deliveries	130,000 units	Top seller in400k-class segment
New AITO M7	Over90,000 pre-orders in41 days	Bestseller verification

:

• Average transaction price stable at 400k yuan range
  : First domestic brand to break through both monthly sales and average transaction price in this range [3]
• 300k+ high-end market share:31.8%
  : Q2 sales 142,000 units far exceeded competitors [3]
• HarmonyOS Intelligent Mobility reached 1M units in 43 months
  : AITO accounts for over90% as the absolute main force [1]

###2.2 Technology Leadership: Intelligent Moat

:

• 2025 AITO M9 upgraded to
  4 LiDARs +3 4D Millimeter Wave Radars
  full-perception system [3]
• Natively equipped with
  ADS3.3 intelligent driving system
  : Supports end-to-end (parking to parking) full-scenario autonomous driving [3]
• Reserved ADS4.0 upgrade capability
  : Intelligent driving transitions from “usable” to “trustworthy” [3]
• MIIT approved first batch of L3 autonomous driving vehicles for conditional road testing
  : Policy tailwind arrives [4]

:

• AITO M9 user satisfaction:
  9.1 points
  , NPS:
  83.55%
  [3]
• Promoters account for over
  84%
  , detractors only
  1.32%
  : Far above industry average [3]
• Actual usage data: Some users’ M7 Max has over190,000 km of ADAS mileage in1.5 years (90% of total) [3]

###2.3 Valuation Advantage: DCF Shows Huge Upside

According to DCF valuation model [0]:

Valuation Scenario	Fair Value	Upside vs Current Price
Conservative	1,399.22 yuan	+1,059.5%
Base	3,970.57 yuan	+3,190.4%
Optimistic	6,040.64 yuan	+4,905.9%

[0]:

• P/E (TTM):
  26.23x
• P/B:
  7.03x
• Market Cap:
  197.1 billion yuan

:

• Analysts expect 2029 revenue to reach
  232.3 billion yuan
  , EPS ~
  9.28 yuan
  [0]
• Historical revenue CAGR:
  78.5%
  : In high-growth phase [0]
• vs US EV players (Li Auto, NIO): Valuation still has room to rise

###2.4 Financial Improvement: Profitability Sustained Growth

According to financial data [0][1]:

Financial Indicator	Data	YoY Change
2024 Net Profit	5.946 billion yuan	Turned profitable
2025 Q1-Q3 Net Profit	5.312 billion yuan	+31.56%
Free Cash Flow	7.271 billion yuan	Abundant cash flow
EPS (TTM)	4.60 yuan	Strong profitability

:

• The claim of “67.31% revenue drop” contradicts net profit data
• Possible reason: Data confusion or statistical口径 issue
• Actual: Seres’ Q1-Q3 net profit
  5.312 billion yuan (+31.56% YoY)
  [1]: Strong profitability

###2.5 2026 Growth Expectations: Multi-Dimensional Layout

:

• AITO 2026 target:
  450k-500k units
  (35% of HarmonyOS Intelligent Mobility) [6]
• 2026 launch of
  M6 model
  : 280k-320k yuan mid-size SUV to fill price gap [6]
• Facelifts for M5, M7 3.0, M8/M9陆续登场

:

• Robot Business
  : Humanoid robot core components (market size 100b yuan by2030) [7]
• Overseas Expansion
  : Plan to build Vietnam production base for Southeast Asia [7]
• Tech Extension
  :6-axis force sensors, integrated joint modules (high value-add products) [7]

---

###3.1 Technical Indicator Interpretation [0]

Current Price: 120.67 yuan
MA20:123.14 yuan (slightly below → resistance)
MA50:134.75 yuan (mid-term resistance)
MA200:134.43 yuan (long-term resistance)

:

• ✅ Rebounded
  41.6%
  from yearly low (85.20 yuan): Bottom confirmed
• ⚠️ Short-term constrained by 20-day MA but
  up23% post-National Day
  : Uptrend
• ⚠️
  52-week high retracement (-30.91%)
  : Close to technical rebound threshold (usually30-40% triggers rebound)

###3.2 Volume-Price Coordination

According to historical data [0]:

• Post-National Day volume increased: Capital回流
• Dec24: NEV sector received
  12.5 billion yuan main capital inflow
  : Sector liquidity improved [4]

---

###4.1 Short-Term Risks

1. High Debt Risk
   : Financial analysis shows debt risk as “high_risk” [0]
2. Technical Pressure
   : Price below MA20/50/200 → Short-term pressure
3. Sector Rotation
   : Capital flows to AI/chips → Auto sector outflow [4]

###4.2 Long-Term Risks

1. Industry Competition Intensifies
   :
   • Tesla/Xiaomi/Li Auto continuous price cuts
   • BBA accelerates electrification → High-end market fierce [6]
2. Huawei Dependency Risk
   :
   • HarmonyOS Intelligent Mobility “five-Jie” imbalance (AITO accounts for90% [1])
   • Zhijie/Xiangjie/Shangjie poor sales → Ecosystem synergy not fully formed [1]
3. Valuation Expectation Risk
   : DCF base scenario (3970 yuan) may be overoptimistic → If sales miss, valuation下调

---

###5.1 Core Logic Supporting Reversal ✅

Factor	Support Level	Key Evidence
Sales Exceed Expectations	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐	Nov sales55k+ up49.84% [1]
Technology Leadership	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐	L3 approved [4], ADS4.0 reserved [3]
Valuation Advantage	⭐⭐⭐⭐	DCF base scenario +3190% [0]
Financial Improvement	⭐⭐⭐⭐	Q1-Q3 net profit up31.56% [1]
Policy Tailwind	⭐⭐⭐⭐	L3 pilot approved [4]

###5.2 Reversal Driver Sources

• Short-term (3-6 months)
  : Q4 2025 performance verification + AITO M7 delivery
• Mid-term (6-12 months)
  :2026 new car cycle (M6 launch + M5/M7 facelift)
• Long-term (1-3 years)
  : L3 implementation + Robot business volume

###5.3 Final Judgment
Seres’ “Extremes Lead to Reversals”

, but . For long-term investors, current price has good risk-reward ratio → Hold and add on dips, wait for2026 catalysts.

---

[0] Gilin API Data: Seres (601127.SS) real-time quotes, financial analysis, technical analysis, DCF valuation
[1] Tencent News: “Is HarmonyOS Intelligent Mobility Working? Only AITO?” (2025-12-17)
[2] OFweek New Energy Vehicles: “Seres Nov Sales Surge50%, AITO Full Line Explodes” (2025-12-03)
[3] Sohu Auto: “CCTV Certified: AITO with900k Deliveries Paves China’s Auto Power Road” (2025-12-XX)
[4] Securities Times: “Afternoon Breakout!300131, Straight 20% Limit Up! This Sector, Batch Seals!” (2025-12-24)
[5] Zhitong Finance: “Zhitong Finance Hong Kong Stock Dec Investment Strategy & Top10 Stocks” (2025-12-XX)
[6] Anhui News Network: “Five-Jie Compete! HarmonyOS Intelligent Mobility2026 NEV Market Battle” (2025-12-25)
[7] East Money: “Haozhi Electromechanical Robot Parts Business2030 Market Cap Imagination Space Analysis” (2025-12-23)