Interpretation and Sustainability Analysis of the TIAA026120 Fund Portfolio Strategy

Based on the post information you provided and the latest market data I obtained, the following is a systematic interpretation and sustainability analysis of the ‘Club Selected (TIAA026120)’ fund portfolio strategy:

• Performance and Strategy Relationship (Citation Format Correction):

  • Post disclosure: The portfolio’s annual return rate reached 67.42%, significantly outperforming the performance benchmark by 47.06%, with a Sharpe ratio of 2.18, reflecting a high risk-adjusted return.
  • According to the tool data I obtained, the Hang Seng Index rose by approximately 29.53% cumulatively in 2025, with an annualized volatility of about 1.51% and a daily average trading volume of approximately 3.52 billion shares [0]. This market environment provides a good foundation for structural market trends and sector rotation strategies, but does not directly constitute a specific contribution calculation to the portfolio’s performance.
  • The international gold price rose by approximately 70.64% cumulatively in 2025, hovering above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages at the end of the year [0], which confirms the blogger’s timing logic of ‘taking profits at high gold prices’ in terms of time and direction. Therefore, from a macro perspective, this strategy had operational feasibility consistent with market characteristics in 2025.

• Replicability of ‘Low-Position Layout + Strict Volatility Control’ (Using [0] to Cite Tool Data):

  • The key to replicability lies in diversified allocation and disciplined profit-taking: 1) Diversification across multiple sectors can reduce the impact of a single sector’s pullback on the portfolio; 2) Strict profit-taking and position control help control downward volatility. The Hang Seng Index’s daily average volatility was approximately 1.51% during the year [0], indicating that the market itself has exploitable band characteristics; 3) Compared with pure index holding, strict position management helps smooth the return curve amid market volatility.
  • Potential difficulties: 1) It is difficult to standardize the rotation rhythm: Hong Kong stocks face periodic external shocks (such as tariffs, policies, changes in interest rate expectations) and shifts in capital flows throughout the year [1][2][3], leading to rapid differentiation in sector performance. If the timing frequency is too high, it is vulnerable to transaction costs and misjudgment risks; 2) ‘Mismatch’ risk in structural market conditions: In an environment where the overall index rose by approximately 29.53% [0], the difference in gains between individual stocks and sectors is significant, and a concentrated heavy position may amplify the phased pullback of a specific sector; 3) The achievement of a Sharpe ratio of 2.18 requires the coexistence of sustained and stable excess returns and low volatility, placing high demands on pullback management and position-holding discipline.

• 2026 Sustainability Assessment (Combining Macro Environment and Blogger’s Main Themes):

  • Market and Valuation Environment: The Hang Seng Index recorded a nearly 30% increase in 2025, with valuations returning from extremely low levels to the mean [0][2][3]. This means that the marginal space for valuation repair in 2026 will narrow, and excess returns will rely more on profit and thematic drivers. Structurally, ‘repair and differentiation’ may still be the key market keywords, but the magnitude of valuation compression may not be as significant as in 2025.
  • Potential Opportunities and Challenges of Three Main Themes (Combining Macro/Industry Information from Web Searches):
    1. Service Consumption (Combining Macro Outlook): Macro research expects CPI to rise moderately to approximately 0.5% in 2026, and PPI may turn positive around the middle of the year [1], with marginal improvement in consumption fundamentals. However, residents’ income expectations and leverage constraints still restrict the elasticity of consumption repair [1][2]. If the strategy focuses on discretionary consumption, it is necessary to pay attention to the rhythm of residents’ balance sheet repair; if it leans towards essential/high-quality service industry leaders, resilience may be stronger.
    2. Industries Related to CPI Recovery: Targets that resonate with ‘moderate price recovery + profit repair’ are more advantageous [1]. For example, some mid-upper stream manufacturing and resource products may see profit repair under supply constraints [1], but if demand is insufficient, the strength of PPI repair will be limited [1].
    3. ‘Anti-Involution’ Assets: The key is the resonance of supply contraction, pattern optimization, and policy support [1]. Segmented fields with high concentration and execution (such as some batteries, steel, cement, etc.) are more likely to benefit first under policy catalysis [1]. However, attention should be paid to the rhythm; without supporting demand-side measures, the sector’s elasticity will be limited [1].
  • Conclusion for 2026 (Citation Correction):
    • The success of the fund strategy in 2025 was based on the alignment of ‘low-position diversification + disciplined rotation’ with macro conditions such as valuation repair and resource product strength in that year. In 2026, in an environment where the marginal effect of valuation repair weakens and profit-driven factors rise, the excess space purely relying on valuation repair and resource product price increases will narrow, and the effectiveness of the strategy will depend more on the precise grasp of structural opportunities in ‘anti-involution’, consumption improvement, and industrial upgrading.
    • Therefore, the framework of ‘low-position layout + strict volatility control’ is still sustainable, but it requires more refined macro and industry tracking, as well as stricter discipline in profit-taking, diversification, and pullback control to adapt to the shift from ‘valuation repair’ to ‘profit and thematic-driven’.

References
[0] Jinling API Data (Including: 2025 Daily Line and Statistics of Hang Seng Index, Daily Line and Statistics of Gold Price)
[1] Securities Times - “2026 Will Be a Year to Consolidate the ‘Fruits of Victory’ in China’s Stock Market! Wang Ying of Morgan Stanley’s Latest Remarks” Link: https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3528400.html
[2] Securities Times - “Hong Kong Stock Allocation Has High Cost-Performance Ratio” Link: https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3554800.html
[3] 21st Century Business Herald - “HK$286.3 Billion Perfectly Ends the ‘Hong Kong Moment’ in the Global IPO Market” Link: https://www.21jingji.com/article/20251223/herald/6e7b900827d022bdf161548b0fe2702f.html
[4] Cinda Securities - “2026 China Macro Outlook: Inflation Can Be Stabilized Without Strong Stimulus” Link: https://www.fxbaogao.com/detail/5202425
[5] Jiemian News - “2025 Hong Kong Stock Review: ‘Repair’ and ‘Differentiation’” Link: https://www.jiemian.com/article/13784719.html
[6] East Money Wealth Account - “Operation: Commercial Aviation Sector Strongly Rebounds, Continue to Layout!” Link: https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20251224134108946461130
[7] East Money Wealth Account - “Operation: Sector Rotation Accelerates, Focus on These Directions!” Link: https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20251223122450640212270
[8] CLS.cn - “Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Surges 33% This Year, Hitting Five-Year High; Multiple Institutions Predict It Will Break 30,000 Points Next Year” Link: https://www.cls.cn/detail/2236211
[9] Futunn News - “Annual Review | 2025 Hong Kong Stock’s Strongest Sector Revealed! Raw Materials Sector Leads the Pack” Link: https://news.futunn.com/post/66502245/year-end-review-the-strongest-performing-sector-in-hong-kong
[10] China Fund News - “Technology, Long-Termism, Diversified Allocation | 2025 Snowball Carnival” Link: https://www.chnfund.com/article/AR203dade6-c4b0-049f-1069-3a1e67f11e2a