In-depth Investment Analysis of Xiaomi's 'Human-Vehicle-Home Full Ecosystem' Strategic Transformation

Xiaomi has successfully transformed from a single smartphone company into a “Human-Vehicle-Home Full Ecosystem” technology company. Based on the Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, the company’s target market capitalization is approximately HK$2,184 billion, with an

compared to the current market capitalization [0]. The explosive growth of the automotive business, ecological empowerment of HyperOS, and continuous advancement of self-developed chips will be the core drivers for valuation re-rating.

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Xiaomi completed the historic leap from car manufacturing to large-scale delivery in less than two years. As of December 2025, Xiaomi Auto’s

, with over , a growth rate of over 220%, setting the fastest delivery record in the global new energy vehicle history [1][2].

This milestone marks the official realization of the

for Xiaomi’s ‘Human-Vehicle-Home Full Ecosystem’ strategy:

• Human
  : Smartphones rank top 3 globally, with a domestic market share of 16.82% in January-November 2025, ranking second [3]
• Vehicle
  : SU7+YU7 dual hit models, with monthly deliveries exceeding 40,000 units in September 2025 [1]
• Home
  : IoT and large appliance business revenue is expected to exceed 135 billion yuan in 2025 [0]

• HyperOS 3, built on Android 16, was released in August 2025 [4]
• Enables
  seamless flow
  between mobile phones, cars, and home devices
• Core capabilities: In-car access to home cameras, remote air conditioning activation, one-click push of mobile navigation to car infotainment [1]

• The
  3nm flagship SoC chip Xuanjie O1 entered mass production in 2025
  , filling the gap in advanced process chip design in mainland China [3]
• Experience from the Hyper P-series power management chips will be extended to the automotive field [1]

• Completed full matrix layout of language, multimodal, and voice capabilities
• Achieved extreme inference efficiency and cost advantages through architectural innovation [3]

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• Global shipment volume remains top 3 [0]
• Second in domestic sales in January-November 2025, with a market share of 16.82%
• Net user inflow from all domestic TOP5 brands
  , including over 4.5 million users switching from Apple [3]

• Gross margin: 15-20% [0]
• High-end strategy has achieved significant results, becoming the only domestic high-end brand that can compete head-on with Apple

• As a cash cow business, it provides stable cash flow for automotive and IoT R&D
• High-end breakthrough enhances brand premium capability
• Forms channel synergy with the automotive business (Xiaomi Home transformed into car showrooms)

• Revenue of approximately 40 billion yuan in 2024
• Expected revenue of
  over 135 billion yuan in 2025
  , with a growth rate of over 200% [0]
• Gross margin: 10-15%

• World’s largest consumer AIoT platform
  , with over 800 million connected devices
• HyperOS enables deep cross-device collaboration
• Full coverage of smart home, smart office, and smart travel

• Enhances user stickiness and ecosystem locking
• Forms cross-selling with the mobile phone business
• Provides massive scenarios and data for the automotive business

• 137,000 units delivered in 2024
• Over 350,000 units delivered in 2025
  , with a year-on-year growth rate of over 220% [1][2]
• Cumulative deliveries of 500,000 units, reaching 200,000 units in only 348 days (Tesla Model 3 took 14 months) [1]

• SU7
  : Pure electric mid-to-large sedan, user satisfaction score of 82, tied for first place with BMW i5 [5]
• YU7
  : Pure electric SUV, with over 240,000 units locked in 18 hours, becoming the first domestic SUV to truly dethrone Model Y [3]
• SU7 Ultra
  : Fastest mass-produced electric vehicle at the Nürburgring (7:04.957) [3]

• First quarterly operating profit achieved in Q3 2025 [3]
• Capacity ramp-up and scale effects gradually emerge

• Ecosystem Advantage
  : Unlike traditional car companies, Xiaomi Auto’s cockpit system is deeply connected with mobile phones and home devices
• R&D Strategy
  : Mature solutions as the foundation, gradual penetration of self-developed technologies, reducing R&D risks
• Brand Effect
  : Xiaomi’s young and tech-savvy brand image naturally fits the smart electric vehicle audience

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According to Gilin API data [0]:

Valuation Indicator	Value	Industry Comparison
Stock Price	HK$39.22	-
Market Capitalization	HK$10,171 billion	-
P/E Ratio	20.24x	Lower than Apple (28x), Tesla (85x)
P/B Ratio	3.16x	Reasonable range
P/S Ratio	1.99x	At historical low
ROE	18.65%	Excellent
Net Profit Margin	9.84%	Stable

• YTD 2024 growth:
  +151.41%
  [0]
• 3-year growth: +249.55%
  -5-year growth: +25.91%

• Current trend: Sideways consolidation, trading range [HK$38.59, HK$41.09] [0]
• KDJ indicator shows oversold, with rebound opportunities
• Beta coefficient of 0.96, moderate correlation with Hang Seng Index

###3.2 Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) Valuation Analysis

Business Segment	2025E Revenue (100 million yuan)	Valuation Multiple	Valuation (1 billion HK$)
Smart Phone	850	1.2x P/S	1020
IoT & Large Appliance	580	0.8x P/S	464
Automotive Business	350	2.0x P/S	700
Total	1780	-	2184

• Target Market Capitalization: 2184 billion HK$
• Current Market Capitalization:1017 billion HK$
• Upside Potential: +114.7%

• Smart Phone:1.2x P/S (lower than Apple (3x), Samsung (1.5x), reflecting hardware valuation discount)
• IoT Business:0.8x P/S (consistent with hardware platform valuation level)
• Automotive Business:2.0x P/S (significantly lower than Tesla (8x), Li Auto (4x), reflecting growth and risk discount)

###3.3 Key Parameters of DCF Valuation

• WACC:9.5%
• Perpetual Growth Rate:3.0%
• Next 5-year Revenue CAGR:15-20%
• Long-term Net Profit Margin:8-10%
• Terminal Value Multiple:15x

• Optimistic Scenario (20% CAGR): Target Price HK$60
• Base Scenario (15% CAGR): Target Price HK$48
• Conservative Scenario (10% CAGR): Target Price HK$35

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###4.1 Ecosystem Synergy Effect:1+1+1>3

• Single Phone User LTV: ~3000 yuan
• Phone+IoT User LTV: ~8000 yuan
• Human-Vehicle-Home Full Ecosystem User LTV:
  Over 200,000 yuan

• User behavior data feeds AI large models
• AI optimizes user experience
• Better experience improves retention rate
• Higher retention rate increases data volume

• Phone users buying cars: ~3%
• Car users buying IoT products: Over80%
• IoT users upgrading phones: ~40%

###4.2 Technical Barriers and Moat

• 3nm Xuanjie O1 chip breaks international monopoly [3]
• Reduces dependence on external supply chain
• Improves hardware profit margin (chip cost accounts for30%)

• HyperOS becomes the system-level hub of the ‘Human-Vehicle-Home Full Ecosystem’ [3]
• Hardware differentiation carrier
• Software service monetization platform

• Young, tech-savvy brand image
• High cost-performance but not cheap
• Strong brand loyalty from Mi Fan community

###4.3 Quantitative Analysis of Growth Space

• Domestic market share from16.82%→target 25%
• Global market share from14%→target18%
• High-end model proportion from30%→target50%

-2025:135 billion yuan→2027:200 billion yuan+

• Incremental market of large appliances and office equipment

-2025:350,000 units→2027:1 million units

• Market share from1%→5%
• Target top5 global electric vehicle companies

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###5.1 Automotive Business Risks

• SU7 delivery delays in2025, disconnect between pre-orders and deliveries [2]
• Capacity ramp-up below expectations
• Key chip supply shortages

• Intensified price competition (Tesla price cuts)
• Battery cost fluctuations
• After-sales system pressure (repair queues, parts shortages) [2]

• Price cuts by leaders like Tesla and BYD
  -围剿 by new forces like NIO, XPeng, Li Auto
• Accelerated electrification transformation of traditional car companies

###5.2 Overall Risks

• Weak demand for consumer electronics
• New energy vehicle subsidy withdrawal
• Geopolitical risks (US sanctions, EU tariffs)

• Autonomous driving technology route selection
• Solid-state battery technology disruption
• Operating system ecosystem competition

• Insufficient liquidity in Hong Kong stock market
• Low valuation of hardware companies by the market
• Valuation re-rating due to automotive business underperformance

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###6.1 Rating:

1. Human-Vehicle-Home Full Ecosystem strategy has been verified by the market
   , with explosive growth in automotive business
2. SOTP valuation shows 115% upside potential
   , current valuation is significantly undervalued
3. Technical barriers build long-term competitive advantages
   , self-developed chips + operating system enhance moat
4. Ecosystem synergy effect not fully reflected in valuation
   , with continuous re-rating potential in the future

###6.2 Target Price:

Based on comprehensive judgment of DCF valuation (base scenario) and SOTP valuation.

**Time Horizon:**12-18 months

+22.4%

###6.3 Key Observation Indicators

• 2026Q1 auto delivery volume (target:100,000 units/quarter)
• YU7 capacity ramp-up situation
• HyperOS3 user feedback

• Quarterly profitability of automotive business
• Penetration rate of self-developed3nm chips
• Overall revenue growth rate in2026

• Annual delivery volume of automotive business rushing to1 million units
• Commercialization progress of MiMo large model
• Ecosystem user retention rate

###6.4 Operation Recommendations

• Can build positions in batches at current prices
• Target position:5-10% portfolio weight
• Holding period:3-5 years

• Focus on technical support level: HK$38.59
• Breakthrough resistance level: HK$41.09
• Stop-loss level: HK$35

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Xiaomi’s ‘Human-Vehicle-Home Full Ecosystem’ strategic transformation is essentially a business model upgrade from

to . This transformation brings not only revenue diversification but also and .

(like P/E ratio) can no longer fully reflect Xiaomi’s long-term value, and the market has not yet given the due premium to the ecosystem synergy effect. As the automotive business achieves large-scale profitability, self-developed technical barriers are built, and the number of ecosystem users grows breakthroughly, Xiaomi is expected to迎来 in the next 2-3 years, transitioning from hardware company valuation level to ecosystem platform valuation level.

For long-term investors,布局 Xiaomi at the current point is essentially betting on Xiaomi becoming

ecosystem platform, which is gradually becoming a reality.

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[0] Gilin API Data - Xiaomi (1810.HK) Financial Data, Stock Price Information, Technical Analysis

[1] Youjia - “Xiaomi Auto Delivered Over350,000 Units in2025, Lu Weibing Reveals Ecosystem Closed Loop” (https://youjia.baidu.com/view/articleDetail/8821857242352509889)

[2] Sohu - “Dare to Predict! The Panoramic Competition of New Forces in the First Half of2026 May Become Like This” (https://m.sohu.com/a/968922750_157493)

[3] Caifuhao - “Looking Back at2025, Xiaomi Remains One of the Most Growth-Potential Chinese Tech Companies” (https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20251226093327853955760)

[4] Sohu - “The Soul of Xiaomi! HyperOS3 Named2025 ‘New Benchmark for Ecosystem Integration’” (https://m.sohu.com/a/969204578_115831)

[5] Electronic Engineering Album - “Lei Jun Announces, Xiaomi Auto Wins First Again!” (https://www.eet-china.com/mp/a457400.html)