In-depth Analysis of Valuation Logic Reconstruction for Xiaomi Group's 'Human-Vehicle-Home Full Ecosystem'

Now let me provide you with an in-depth analysis of the valuation logic reconstruction after Xiaomi Group’s ‘Human-Vehicle-Home Full Ecosystem’ strategic transformation.

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Xiaomi’s valuation logic needs to shift from a

to an . According to the latest data, Xiaomi’s current share price is HK$39.22 with a market capitalization of HK$1.02 trillion [0], but the fair value based on the traditional DCF model is only HK$17-32 [0], indicating that the , which reflects the market’s expectations for the ‘Human-Vehicle-Home Full Ecosystem’ strategy.

Indicator	Xiaomi	Industry Comparison
Market Capitalization	HK$1.02 trillion (~US$131 billion) [0]	-
P/E Ratio	20.25x [0]	Apple: 36.49x [0]
P/B Ratio	3.16x [0]	Apple:55.43x [0]
ROE	18.65% [0]	Apple:147% [0]
Net Profit Margin	9.84% [0]	Apple:26.92% [0]

(from HK$15.6 in early 2024 to HK$39.22 at the end of 2025) [0], but since Q4 2025, it has corrected by about 28%, reflecting market divergence on the strategic transformation.

Technical analysis indicates that it is currently in a

, with support at HK$38.59 and resistance at HK$41.09 [0].

Chart 1: Comparison of Xiaomi and Apple in Key Financial Indicators, Business Structure, Market Capitalization Scale, and Strategic Capabilities

According to the broker API’s DCF analysis [0]:

Scenario	Fair Value	vs Current Price (39.22HKD)
Conservative	17.08 HKD	-56.5%
Base	21.00 HKD	-46.5%
Optimistic	32.14 HKD	-18.1%

: The traditional DCF model is based on historical financial data (5-year average revenue growth of 10.5%, EBITDA margin of5.7%) [0], .

###3.2 Three Blind Spots of the Traditional Framework

1. Scenario Missing
   : Does not consider the explosive growth potential of the smart car business (150% expected CAGR) [3]
2. Synergy Discount
   : Cross-scenario data value between IoT devices, mobile phones, and cars is not quantified
3. AI Value
   : The service revenue upgrade path brought by HyperOS + AI large model is underestimated

###4.1 Strategic Closed Loop Completed (2025 Key Milestones)

According to web search data, Xiaomi achieved three major breakthroughs in 2025 [1][2][3]:

1. First Profit for Automotive Business
   : Smart electric vehicles and AI innovative businesses achieved their first profit in Q3, with a single-quarter profit of HK$29 billion
2. YU7 Locked 240k Orders
   : Verified the execution capability of ‘Xiaomi Car Making’
3. High Growth of IoT Business
   : IoT revenue increased by 34.6% YoY in the first three quarters of2025 [1]

Chart2: Evolution of Xiaomi’s Business Structure, Growth Potential of Each Segment, Comparison of Valuation Frameworks, and DCF Scenario Analysis

###4.2 Three Core Capability Pillars

According to Xiaomi’s official statement [1][2], it will invest

in the next 5 years, focusing on:

1. Chips
   : Self-developed SoC ‘Xuanjie’ chip to reduce dependence on external supply chains
2. Operating System
   : HyperOS connects three scenarios of mobile phones, cars, and home appliances
3. AI
   : AI large models empower full-scenario intelligent experiences

###5.1 Business Segment Valuation

Business Segment	Current Revenue Share	Valuation Method	Valuation Multiple	Independent Valuation
Smart Phone	52%	P/E15x	Conservative Hardware Valuation	HK$0.53 trillion
IoT & Home Appliances	30%	P/E20x	Consider Ecosystem Synergy	HK$0.31 trillion
Internet Services	8%	P/E30x	High Margin Business	HK$0.25 trillion
Smart Automotive	10%	PS5x	High Growth Track	HK$0.51 trillion
Sum of Parts	100%	-	-	HK$1.60 trillion
Ecosystem Synergy Premium	-	-	+30%	+HK$0.48 trillion
Target Valuation	-	-	-	HK$2.08 trillion
Upside Potential	-	-	-	+104%

: Based on the SOTP + ecosystem premium framework, Xiaomi’s reasonable market capitalization should be HK$2.08 trillion (~HK$204 per share), with an upside potential of compared to the current HK$39.22.

###5.2 Three Sources of Ecosystem Premium

1. Data Flywheel
   : 1 billion-level hardware devices generate full-scenario data to train AI models, improving service experience and monetization efficiency
2. Cross-selling
   : Mobile phone users convert to car/home appliance users, reducing customer acquisition costs by over30%
3. Subscription Revenue
   : High-margin businesses such as AI cloud services and smart home subscriptions increase in proportion, targeting from 8% to20%

###6.1 Core Gaps vs Apple

Dimension	Xiaomi	Apple	Gap
Market Cap Scale	US$131 billion [0]	US$4.04 trillion [0]	30x
Service Revenue Share	~8% [2]	26.2% [0]	18.2 percentage points
Brand Premium	Mid-to-high end	Luxury level	Significant Gap
Global Phone Share	14% (3rd) [2]	23% (1st) [0]	9 percentage points
Ecosystem Control	Open Ecosystem	Closed Loop	Model Difference

###6.2 Xiaomi’s Unique Advantages

1. More Comprehensive Scenario Coverage
   : Apple lacks an automotive business; Xiaomi is the only tech giant with full coverage of ‘Human+Vehicle+Home’
2. Wider Price Range
   : Covers the full price range from 1,000 yuan to 10,000 yuan, with a larger user base (MAU over600 million)
3. Stronger Execution
   : Completed car-making from 0 to1 in 3 years, proving ‘Xiaomi Efficiency’

###6.3 Three Paths to Catch Up with Apple

• High-end Strategy: Mobile phone ASP increases from 1,100 yuan to over1,500 yuan
• Automotive Business Scale: From 240k units/year to 1 million units/year
• IoT Home Appliances High-endization: Large home appliances account for over50%

• AI Cloud Services: Cross-device AI assistant subscriptions
• Financial Technology: Payment, credit, insurance
• Content Services: Video, music, game distribution

• European Automotive Market: Leverage Xiaomi’s mobile phone channel advantages
• India, Southeast Asia: Localized manufacturing of IoT home appliances
• Latin America, Africa: Cost-effective mobile phone + IoT combination

###7.1 Investment Recommendations

:

1. Expectation Gap
   : The market still uses hardware company valuation (P/E20x) and ignores ecosystem value
2. Catalysts
   : Large-scale profitability of the automotive business in2026, commercialization of AI large models
3. Safety Margin
   : Current price has corrected by 28%, close to the DCF base scenario valuation of HK$21

###7.2 Key Risks

1. Automotive Business Underperforming
   : YU7 delivery volume below target, gross margin difficult to turn positive
2. Mobile Phone Business Decline
   : Global smartphone market saturation, intensified domestic competition (e.g., Huawei)
3. Geopolitical Risks
   : Policy changes in the Indian market, access restrictions in European and American markets
4. Valuation Bubble Risk
   : Current price is higher than the DCF optimistic scenario of HK$32.14 [0]

###7.3 Investment Rhythm Suggestions

Time Window	Key Observation Indicators	Investment Strategy
2025 Q4	Monthly car delivery volume, IoT growth rate	Batch position building, add on dips
2026 H1	Annual profit of automotive business, AI service revenue	Hold mainly, focus on fulfillment
2026 H2	Global market share, service revenue proportion	Evaluate fulfillment after valuation repair

Considering the complexity of Xiaomi’s ‘Human-Vehicle-Home Full Ecosystem’ strategy, it is recommended to enable the

for the following thematic studies:

1. Xiaomi vs Huawei vs Apple Ecosystem Comparison
   : Scenario coverage, user stickiness, monetization efficiency
2. Smart Automotive Industry Analysis
   : Xiaomi SU7/YU7 vs Tesla Model3/Y vs BYD Han/HaiBao
3. IoT Home Appliance Industry Chain Research
   : Xiaomi supply chain, self-developed chips, intelligent manufacturing capabilities
4. AI Large Model Commercialization Path
   : HyperOS AI function user penetration rate, payment willingness survey

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[0] Gilin API Data (Xiaomi Group 1810.HK and Apple AAPL financial data, stock price, DCF analysis, technical analysis)
[1] Tencent News - ‘Giants Battle for ‘Human-Vehicle-Home’: Xiaomi to Invest 200 Billion Yuan in Next5 Years’ (https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20251217A06WEG00)
[2] Xueqiu Column - ‘Annual Investment Review: When Xiaomi’s ‘Human-Vehicle-Home Full Ecosystem’ Meets AI New Starting Point’ (https://xueqiu.com/9210717241/367934587)
[3] NetEase News - ‘Annual Investment Review: When Xiaomi’s ‘Human-Vehicle-Home Full Ecosystem’ Meets AI New Starting Point’ (https://www.163.com/dy/article/KHPCSS9205394MBC.html)

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: This analysis is based on public data as of December28,2025. Investment decisions should consider personal risk tolerance and the latest market dynamics.