Evaluation of the Performance Boost Effect of Strong Inbound Tourism Growth on A-share Aviation and Tourism Stocks

In 2025, China’s inbound tourism market showed a strong recovery trend, with multiple indicators hitting historical records:

Core Indicator	Data Performance	Year-on-Year Growth
First 8 months inbound tourists	Over 25 million	+50%+ [1]
Visa-free inbound tourists	21 million	+50% [1]
Full-year estimated inbound tourists	Over 35 million	Historical record [1]
Ctrip inbound tourist volume	-	Doubled (+100%+) [1]
US tourists’ consumption growth	-	+50% [1]
French tourists’ consumption growth	-	+160% [1]

China continues to expand its ‘visa-free circle of friends’. As of 2025,

, accounting for over 70% of all inbound tourists [1]. This policy has greatly lowered travel barriers and become the core driver of the inbound tourism boom.

:-
Spanish tourists’ domestic flight bookings reached last year’s level

• Italian tourists’ bookings reached
  4x
  last year’s level
• Shanghai received over
  6 million
  inbound tourists, a significant increase from 2024 [1]

---

:-
: Normalized price trend comparison of three beneficiary stocks (initial value=100), showing China Duty Free leading in growth

• Top Right
  : Cumulative return comparison, with China Eastern Airlines leading at +39.1%
• Bottom Left
  : Box plot of daily return distribution, showing China Duty Free with the highest volatility (2.94% daily average)
• Bottom Right
  : 20-day average trading volume change, reflecting market capital attention

Stock Code	Company Name	Period Return	Latest Price	Volatility (Daily Avg)
600115.SS	China Eastern Airlines	+39.10%	$5.55	2.06% [0]
601888.SS	China Duty Free	+33.17%	$92.30	2.94% [0]
600029.SS	China Southern Airlines	+25.96%	$7.52	1.87% [0]
600138.SS	China Youth Travel Service	+0.90%	$10.04	1.00% [0]
002707.SZ	UTour Group	-2.43%	$7.23	1.42% [0]

: In the same period, major US stock indices performed poorly: S&P500 rose only +1.52%, NASDAQ +1.42%, Dow Jones +1.11% [0].

Assume investing 100,000 yuan in early September 2025:-

: 100,000 yuan → 139,100 yuan (profit: 39,100 yuan) [0]

• China Duty Free
  : 100,000 yuan →133,200 yuan (profit:33,200 yuan) [0]
• China Southern Airlines
  :100,000 yuan→126,000 yuan (profit:26,000 yuan) [0]

---

:-

1. Passenger Load Factor Improvement
   : Inbound tourist growth directly boosts international route load factors, especially Europe-China routes (Spanish/Italian tourists surge)
2. Ticket Price Elasticity
   : Average international route ticket prices are much higher than domestic routes; inbound tourists bring high-end customers that raise overall ticket levels
3. Route Network Optimization
   : Major airlines accelerate recovery and addition of international routes to improve network efficiency

(Based on industry average):-
: Airline net profit can increase by ~3-5%

• International Route Revenue Share
  : China Eastern and China Southern Airlines usually have 20-30% international route revenue share
• Inbound Tourist Spending Power
  : European tourists (Spanish/Italian) have average unit price 2-3x that of ordinary tourists

:-

• Perfect international route network layout, high share of European routes
  -突出 Shanghai hub position, benefiting from Shanghai’s inbound tourist growth (over 6 million) [1]
• Flexible capacity deployment strategy, quick response to inbound tourism demand

Core Logic:-

1. Duty Free Consumption Rigidity
   : Inbound tourists have significant spending power at airport and downtown duty free stores
2. Consumption Upgrade Trend
   : French tourists’ consumption up +160%, US tourists up +50% [1], reflecting high-end consumption recovery
3. Strong Free Cash Flow
   : 2024 free cash flow reached 6.82 billion yuan, healthy finances [0]

:-
: Only +0.90% growth; business structure leans toward domestic tourism and exhibitions, limited exposure to inbound tourism

• UTour Group (002707.SZ)
  : Down -2.43%; high share of outbound tourism business, weak correlation with inbound tourism

---

:-

Evaluation Dimension	Key Indicators	Weight
Inbound Tourism Exposure	International route revenue share, overseas tourist source share	30%
Policy Sensitivity	Visa-free policy benefit level, hub city layout	25%
Financial Elasticity	Gross margin improvement potential, free cash flow quality	25%
Market Performance	Relative return, volatility, trading volume change	20%

:-

1. China Eastern Airlines
   : Highest overall score (high international route share + Shanghai hub + strong policy sensitivity)
2. China Duty Free
   : Largest consumption elasticity (duty free consumption + strong cash flow)
3. China Southern Airlines
   : Steady beneficiary (Guangzhou hub + international route recovery)

:-

1. Continued Expansion of Visa-free Policy
   : More countries join visa-free list
2. 2026 Spring Festival Holiday
   : Performance verification from inbound tourism peak
3. International Route Recovery Rate
   : Currently at 70-80% of pre-pandemic levels, still room for improvement

:-

1. International Oil Price Fluctuations
   : Affect airline costs
2. Exchange Rate Fluctuations
   : RMB exchange rate changes affect inbound tourists’ actual spending power
3. Geopolitical Factors
   : E.g., Sino-Japanese relations tension affected Japanese tourist arrivals (November growth dropped to +3%) [2]

---

, mainly reflected in:-

1. Stock Price Performance Verification
   : Major beneficiary stocks rose by 25-39% from September to December 2025, significantly outperforming global markets
2. Clear Performance Driver
   : Inbound tourist count up +50%+ YoY, strong spending power (French/US tourists up +50-160%)
3. Strong Policy Continuity
   : Visa-free policy remains core driver; expected to expand further in 2026

:-

• ✅
  Perfect International Route Layout
  : Dominant European routes, directly benefiting from Spanish/Italian tourist surge
• ✅
  Shanghai Hub Advantage
  : Shanghai received over 6 million inbound tourists, accounting for a significant share of national total
• ✅
  Leading Growth
  : +39.10% period return, verifying market expectations

:-

• ✅
  Strongest Consumption Elasticity
  : Inbound tourists’ spending power increase directly benefits duty free business
• ✅
  Healthy Finances
  : 6.8 billion yuan free cash flow, low debt risk [0]
• ✅
  Steady Growth
  : +33.17% period return, high volatility but attractive returns

:-

• ✅
  Steady Beneficiary
  : Guangzhou hub + international route network
• ⚠️
  Relatively Moderate Growth
  : +25.96% period return, relatively conservative market expectations

, focus on:-

• Verification of inbound tourism growth sustainability (track Q1 2026 data)
• Impact of international oil prices and exchange rate fluctuations on airline costs
• Potential impact of global macroeconomic slowdown on international tourism demand

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[0] Gilin API Data - Stock Price, Financial Data, Market Index
[1] Tourism-Review - “China’s Inbound Tourism Has Been Booming: Not Just About Money” (https://www.tourism-review.com/chinas-inbound-tourism-has-been-booming-news15224)
[2] Reuters - “Japan Visitor Arrivals Growth Strong in November Despite China Travel Warning” (https://www.reuters.com/world/china/urgent-japan-visitor-arrivals-growth-strong-november-despite-china-travel-2025-12-17/)