Analysis of Cycle Bottom Characteristics and Investment Recommendations for the Baijiu Industry

Based on brokerage API data and technical analysis [0], I systematically analyze the cycle bottom characteristics of the baijiu industry for you.

Company	Current Price	52-Week Range	Period Return (2024-2025)	Maximum Drawdown	Technical Status
Moutai (600519.SS)	1414.13 CNY	1383.18-1657.99	-16.08%	-28.76%	Consolidation
Wuliangye (000858.SZ)	109.78 CNY	108.78-143.60	-19.28%	-33.39%	Consolidation
Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ)	119.39 CNY	106.75-146.72	-30.94%	-48.34%	Oversold Zone
Yanghe Shares (002304.SZ)	62.13 CNY	61.70-84.67	-41.52%	-41.61%	Near Annual Low

• Luzhou Laojiao has entered the oversold zone
  (KDJ indicator shows oversold opportunities)
• Moutai is in a downward trend
  (price is below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages)
• Baijiu leading stocks have generally experienced 20%-40% corrections

According to historical data [0]:

• February 2021
  : Historical high of 2601 CNY
• September 19, 2024
  : Historical maximum drawdown of -51.52%
• Current drawdown幅度
  : -45.63% (calculated from historical high)

Cycle Bottom	Time	Drawdown幅度	Trigger Factor
2018 Bottom	October 2018	-51.5%	Deleveraging + Consumption Downgrade
2020 Pandemic Bottom	March 2020	-28.3%	COVID-19 Impact
2022 Adjustment	October 2022	-35.7%	Recurring Pandemics + Weak Consumption
2024 Low	September 2024	-51.52%	Industry De-stocking Cycle

Figure 1: Normalized price trend, drawdown, trading volume and volatility comparison of four major baijiu leading stocks

Figure 2: Moutai’s complete cycle from 2018 to 2025, showing price, trend strength and drawdown. Current price is running below the 50-day/200-day moving average (downward trend), with a drawdown of about 45.6% from the 2021 high

Based on the framework you mentioned, combined with current data for item-by-item verification:

Policy Dimension	Current Status	Bottom Signal
Production Control	Moutai’s 2024 production remains stable	Partially Met (need to further observe Feitian production cut)
Dealer Policy	Manufacturers actively canceled bundling policies	Partially Met (already occurred)
Channel De-stocking	Dealer inventory pressure is still large	Not Fully Met
Investment Criteria	No significant reduction in investment criteria has occurred	Not Met

: Manufacturer policy adjustments have begun, but the intensity is insufficient, only .

• Trading Volume
  : Moutai’s average daily trading volume is 2.99M, lower than the historical average (4.06M), indicating
  strong wait-and-see sentiment
• Decline in Turnover Rate
  : Market activity has decreased significantly
• Institutional Holdings
  : Although data cannot be directly obtained, from the price trend, institutional selling pressure may not have been fully released

: Market sentiment is bottoming, but (no extreme phenomena such as large-scale retail investors leaving the market or fund managers “running away” have been seen)

• Moutai
  : Low debt risk, aggressive financial attitude
• Wuliangye
  : Low debt risk, aggressive financial attitude
• Luzhou Laojiao
  : Low debt risk, aggressive financial attitude

• The overall industry performance growth rate slowed in 2024
• Channel inventory de-stocking is still in progress
• Some second and third-tier liquor companies have already experienced earnings downgrades

: Earnings downgrades , but leading companies (Moutai, Wuliangye) have not yet issued large profit warnings

This is a key misunderstanding that needs to be clarified:

• As the baijiu with the strongest
  luxury属性
  , Moutai’s demand is more resilient
• Moutai’s moat (brand, production capacity, pricing power) gives it an
  independent market trend
• Historically, Moutai often bottoms out before other industry stocks

Level	Bottom Signal	Current Status
Moutai (First-tier Leader)	Price stabilization, technical improvement	Close to Bottom
Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao (First-tier)	Follow stabilization	Still Seeking Bottom
Yanghe,今世缘 (Second and Third-tier)	Earnings clearing, valuation repair	Not Clearly Bottomed
Channel Inventory	De-stocking completed, normal payment collection	In Progress
Consumer Demand	Demand recovery in peak seasons	To Be Observed in 2025 Spring Festival

: Moutai bottoming out is a for the industry to bottom out, but not a .

• 2025 Spring Festival peak season demand exceeds expectations
• Manufacturers increase de-stocking policy intensity (Feitian production cut, dealer subsidies)
• Channel inventory is basically cleared by Q2

• Moutai stands above 1500 CNY
• Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao回升 to the 120-130 CNY range
• Second and third-tier liquor companies stop falling and stabilize

• Spring Festival demand meets expectations (not exceeding)
• De-stocking policies continue to advance but with limited intensity
• Earnings downgrades are completed in Q2-Q3

• Moutai consolidates in the 1400-1500 CNY range
• The industry as a whole completes earnings clearing
• Market sentiment gradually warms up

• Macroeconomic pressure continues
• Consumption downgrade trend intensifies
• Industry de-stocking cycle extends

• Moutai falls below 1300 CNY
• Leading liquor companies in the industry have performance explosions

• Moutai
  : Already in the bottom area, can start staging positions but not suitable for heavy positions
• Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao
  : Wait for more clear bottom signals
• Yanghe and other second and third-tier
  : Avoid temporarily, wait for earnings clearing

1. ✅ Moutai stands above the 50-day moving average (current 1438.43 CNY)
2. ✅ MACD indicator shows golden cross and continues
3. ✅ Channel inventory de-stocking to a reasonable level (1-1.5 months)
4. ✅ Spring Festival peak season wholesale price回升 and sales improvement

5. ✅ Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao follow Moutai to stabilize
6. ✅ Trading volume increases moderately
7. ✅ Institutional holdings回升

8. ⚪ Market stabilizes after panic selling
9. ⚪ Retail investors leave the market, analysts turn bullish

1. Macroeconomic Downturn Risk
   : Consumption downgrade may last longer
2. De-stocking Cycle Exceeds Expectations
   : Channel inventory may be higher than expected
3. Earnings Downgrade Risk
   : 2024 annual report and 2025 Q1 report may still have profit warnings

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• Moutai
  : Already close to the bottom, but technically still in a downward trend (need to stand above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages to confirm reversal) [0]
• Industry Overall
  : Needs to meet the three conditions of manufacturer policies, market sentiment, and financial statements to confirm bottoming
• Time Window
  : The most optimistic scenario is Q2 2025, and the neutral scenario is Q3-Q4 2025

It is recommended to pay close attention to the 2025 Spring Festival peak season sales situation, manufacturer policy adjustment intensity, and Q1 report performance.

[0] Jinling API Data (real-time quotes, technical analysis, financial analysis, historical price data)