Re-evaluation of Lithium Ore Value After Lithium Carbonate Exceeds 120,000 Yuan

Since mid-to-late December, spot lithium carbonate prices have maintained a range of 113,500–124,700 yuan/ton, and the main futures contracts LC2601-2612 have continuously stood above 120,000 yuan and hit new highs repeatedly, indicating that the market’s response to supply contraction is still fermenting. Recent news such as CATL’s Jianxiawo lithium mine resumption progress falling short of expectations, multiple mining rights in Jiangxi to be canceled, plus downstream and midstream enterprises collectively limiting production to support prices, make short-term supply difficult to release quickly, further pushing up prices and speculative sentiment. [1] To curb the overheated trend, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has raised the minimum opening unit of lithium carbonate contracts and restricted the daily opening limit of non-futures company members, but this instead indicates the trading intensity after the price breakthrough. [2] At the same time, facing the policy gap between national subsidy connection and purchase tax adjustment, multiple local governments have added subsidies and enterprises have implemented “purchase tax underwriting” and other combined measures to stabilize new energy vehicle demand (expected to have more than expected stimulus), which will continue to support lithium salt demand in the medium term. (For example, Guangzhou added 300 million yuan, Wuxi 100 million yuan, etc., concentrated at the end of the year and policy transition period) [3]

Dimension	Sinomine Resource Group (002738.SZ)	Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ)
2025 Stock Price Performance	+130.5% (YTD)	+101.3%
Current Market Cap	57.88 billion yuan	143.77 billion yuan
P/E (TTM)	139.32x (Profitable)	-97.96x (Loss-making)
P/B	4.82x	3.37x
Financial Risk Rating	Low Risk (Current Ratio 2.98, Low Debt Risk)	High Risk (Current Ratio 0.73, Negative Profit Margin)
Technical Trend	Obvious Uptrend, Support at 69.4, Target at 84.5	Also in a Pending Confirmation Uptrend, Need to Hold 64.3
Beta	1.82 (High Volatility)	0.88 (Low Volatility)

The above content is from Jinling AI’s brokerage API market, financial and technical analysis data, see [0] for details.

: Although the current P/E is at a high level, it still maintained positive profits in 2024, net profit margin and ROE started to improve, and although free cash flow is negative, it is expected to recover as capacity projects are gradually put into production. The current price has significantly outperformed the 20/50/200-day moving averages, and technical indicators still maintain an upward channel, so the short-term trend continuity is strong. Due to its healthy asset-liability structure, it is more easily recognized by the market as a “high-certainty” resource target under high prices.

: Although it has maintained an upward trend recently, the company’s cumulative losses from 2024 to 2025, operating profit margin of -10.6%, tight current liquidity (quick ratio 0.46), and expanding negative cash flow make its valuation reshaping mainly rely on future profit recovery and downstream profit margin improvement. If lithium carbonate prices continue to rise to 150,000-200,000 yuan/ton, midstream profits are expected to recover quickly, and Ganfeng, as an integrated leader, is expected to benefit, but attention must still be paid to its leverage and raw material/finished product delivery rhythm; the current high volatility also compresses the short-term safety margin.

1. Market Share Upward, Price Expectation Stable
   : Lithium carbonate inventory is only about 105,400 tons (average low level), and midstream production cuts to support prices, downstream demand is still released under the situation of new energy vehicle subsidies exceeding expectations and policy gap filling. If prices can really move towards 150,000-200,000 yuan/ton in the next 6-12 months, the profit leverage will be further amplified; at the same time, there is still uncertainty about whether new capacity can be put into operation in 2026-2027 (such as CATL, state-owned capital capacity), and the short-term supply-side “gap” makes prices have considerable support.

2. Sinomine Resource Group: Valuation “Sustainability”
   : It is recommended to allocate Sinomine Resource Group with the idea of “core position”, because of its low financial risk, clearer cash flow trajectory and current price has fully reflected high growth expectations, but if prices continue to rise, revaluation can be expected from the improvement of ROE and free cash flow. Once the medium-term fundamentals are clear (such as stable capacity commissioning in 2026, downstream battery-grade prices remaining high), its high P/E can also be diluted through profit growth.

3. Ganfeng Lithium: Structural Opportunity Waiting for Profit Recovery
   : If you still want to participate in the overall lithium industry logic, you can adopt a private placement/convertible bond arbitrage strategy: accumulate positions in stages around 65~68 yuan, wait for profit data confirmation (such as lithium carbonate prices remaining high in the first half of 2026 and midstream profit margins rebounding) before reducing positions at high levels, and at the same time keep an eye on its overseas supply chain projects, lithium battery business contributions and debt refinancing rhythm.

4. Chart Key Points
   : The attached chart shows the comparison of prices, cumulative gains, monthly average trading volume and annualized volatility between Sinomine and Ganfeng in 2025, clearly indicating that Sinomine Resource Group has relatively stable trading volume, high volatility but clear trend; Ganfeng has large trading volume, slightly lower volatility, but fundamentals have not rebounded synchronously with valuation. The chart link is: https://gilin-data.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com/financial_charts/e90d8711_lithium_comparison.png, data covers from the beginning of 2025 to December 26, price unit is RMB yuan. [0]

• Price Reversal Risk
  : If capacity is put into operation centrally in 2026 and downstream inventory accumulates rapidly, the rapid decline of lithium carbonate prices will compress the current profit elasticity, so it is still necessary to pay close attention to the progress of capacity commissioning and midstream inventory changes in 2026-2027.
• Policy and Sentiment Risk
  : The exchange’s position limits and order limits on futures contracts show that speculative funds are active, and sentiment-driven risks rise in the short term; if the policy side announces strict capacity control or environmental protection production limits, prices may be temporarily distorted.
• Company Level
  : Ganfeng’s high leverage/negative cash flow has not improved significantly; any failure to meet profit expectations may lead to a rapid decline in valuation. Sinomine Resource Group needs to be alert that its P/E is already at a high level, and if price volatility slows down, it may also trigger a valuation pullback.

The current performance of lithium carbonate prices, combined with low inventory and policy subsidy “relay”, provides a window for revaluation of lithium mining enterprises. Sinomine Resource Group, as a “low risk + profit confirmation” variety, can be used as a core allocation; while Ganfeng Lithium is more suitable as a structural band opportunity, and needs to wait for profit data confirmation before gradually increasing positions. For a comprehensive review of capacity commissioning, policies, further data visualization and comparison of industry chains, it is recommended to enable Jinling AI’s deep research mode to obtain detailed valuation models of each company and industry supply and demand dynamics.

[0] Jinling AI Brokerage API Data (including real-time market, financial analysis, technical analysis and Python-generated charts).
[1] Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Network/Geological Exploration News – “Can Lithium Price Strength Continue” (https://www.worldmr.net/GeologyNews/NewsList/Info/2025-12-25/318217.shtml)
[2] Sina Finance – “Lithium Carbonate Futures Soared Over 120,000 in Half a Year, Industry Pattern Welcomes Three Engines” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2025-12-26/doc-inhecfim2744821.shtml)
[3] Sohu – “‘Local Subsidies’ Make a Comeback: Over 30 Cities Nationwide Urgently Add Car Purchase Subsidies” (https://www.sohu.com/a/969617721_115542)