Analysis of Valuation Repair Opportunities in Hong Kong Stock Market Consumer Sector and Investment Value of New Consumption Track

• Over the past 60 trading days (September 29, 2025 to December 24, 2025), the Hang Seng Index (^HSI) fell from 26,321.57 points to 25,818.93 points, a decrease of approximately 1.91%; the range volatility was about 1.14%, with a weak trend and a consolidation pattern [0].

• Pop Mart (9992.HK, New Consumption): Fell from 261.00 to 200.20, a decrease of approximately 23.3%, with high range volatility (about 3.31%) and active trading volume [0].
• Xiaomi Group (1810.HK, New Consumption/Tech): Fell from 54.00 to 39.22, a decrease of approximately 27.4%, with range volatility of about 2.15% [0].
• China Biopharmaceutical (1177.HK, Pharmaceutical Consumption Related): Fell from 8.10 to 6.42, a decrease of approximately 20.7%, with range volatility of about 2.25% [0].
• Kingsoft Corporation (1880.HK, Software/Cloud Services): Rose from 63.60 to 75.95, an increase of approximately 19.4%, with high range volatility (about 4.00%) [0].

• The U.S. stock consumer sector (Cyclical) fell slightly (-0.47%) on the day, while Defensive rose slightly (+0.24%); the tech and communication sectors were divided (communication +0.70%, tech -0.15%) [0]. This data serves as a cross-market sentiment reference, helping to understand the relative strength of consumer assets under current global risk preferences.

Since the current tool return does not provide the PE of the Hang Seng Consumer Index and its historical percentile, we do not confirm the numerical values of the author’s view (“PE about 17x, percentile 12.82%”), but based on the above obtained data, we can provide a reusable evaluation framework for rigorous judgment after obtaining the corresponding data.

• Absolute Valuation Level: Index/stock PE, PB, PS, EV/EBITDA, etc.; the corresponding denominator needs to be confirmed (next 12 months/past 12 months).
• Relative Valuation and Historical Percentile: Comparison with its own 5/10-year range, comparison with Hang Seng Index/Chinese Concept Index, comparison with A-share consumer sectors (food and beverage, social services, etc.).
• Asset Quality and Profit Expectations: ROE/ROIC trends, consistency and sustainability of revenue and profit growth rates, free cash flow quality.
• Recovery Condition Verification: Macro policies/monetary environment, improvement in consumer confidence and income expectations, progress of industry supply-side clearing and inventory clearing.

• Path A: Marginal improvement in policies and liquidity, with valuation leading (decline in risk premium, narrowing of discounts).
• Path B: Profit repair follows (volume and price rise together, profit margin improvement), switching from valuation-driven to profit-driven.
• Path C: Structural differentiation (new consumption repairs first, traditional consumption repairs in layers according to ROE and dividend yield).
• Suggestion: By obtaining valuation and profit data, scenario assumptions and probability weight assignments (low/medium/high scenarios) can be made for the three paths.

• High Volatility and Active Trading: Pop Mart’s volatility over the past 60 days is about 3.31%, with large trading volume, reflecting high market divergence and attention [0].
• Changing Users and Channels: Strong social, community-based, and experiential attributes, greatly influenced by social media and sentiment, amplifying valuation elasticity and volatility.

• Price Performance: Large retracement over the past 60 days (about -23.3%), has fallen from the high of the range, but still in a high volatility range [0].
• Valuation Needs to Be Verified with Fundamentals: If PE, PEG, channel and inventory turnover data are obtained later, the “valuation-growth rate” matching degree can be evaluated.

• Price Performance: A decrease of about 27.4% over the past 60 days, with volatility of about 2.15%, reflecting market pricing games on the prospects of its new business (such as automobiles) and macro/competition pressures [0].
• Structural Variables: The pull of new business expansion on capital expenditure and profit margins needs to be verified with quarterly data for inflection points.

• Long-term Growth Logic: Brand awareness, channel penetration, and IP/community operation capabilities (need to be verified with financial/operational data).
• Valuation Elasticity: During the expectation repair stage, valuation recovery often precedes profit improvement (need to compare PE/PB with growth rate).
• Risk Points: Double kill of sentiment and valuation, regulatory/public opinion events, intensified industry competition.

• Mismatch Between Valuation and Fundamentals: If the index/stock valuation is in the historical low range, while fundamentals stabilize/improve (inventory clearing, healthy channels, stable or rising gross profit), there is a mean reversion opportunity.
• Structural Opportunities in New Consumption: Look for targets with growth rates higher than the industry and reasonable valuations among segment leaders; evaluate based on PEG and cash flow quality.
• Defensive Attributes of Traditional Consumption: Dividend yield, cash flow stability, and balance sheet quality can be used as screening criteria for defensive allocation.

• Macro and Demand Side: Resident income and employment, savings rate, changes in marginal propensity to consume; pay attention to quarterly social retail data and high-frequency consumption indicators.
• Policy and Regulation: Industry regulatory direction, platform economy and data governance, changes in tax and subsidy policies.
• Market and Liquidity: RMB exchange rate, U.S. bond interest rate and dollar cycle, southbound capital and foreign capital flow direction.
• Performance and Competition: Inventory and discount clearing progress, channel transformation impact, leading pricing power and industry concentration changes.

• Defensive Side (Traditional Consumption): Use dividend yield, cash flow stability, and balance sheet quality as screening criteria; balance between valuation and safety margin.
• Offensive Side (New Consumption): Adopt a three-dimensional screening of “valuation-growth rate-governance quality”, control position concentration and retracement discipline; evaluate based on PEG, operating cash flow and free cash flow, ROE trends.
• Portfolio Management: Control overall Beta exposure, perform style hedging between new/traditional consumption; dynamically adjust offensive/defensive weights to respond to macro and market rhythm changes.

• Valuation and Percentile: PE, PB of Hang Seng Consumer Index and their historical 5/10-year percentiles; PE comparison of A/Hong Kong consumer leaders (food and beverage, social services, durable consumer goods, etc.).
• Finance and Quality: Revenue/profit growth rates, gross profit margin/net profit margin, capital expenditure, free cash flow, ROE/ROIC of target stocks in the past 5-8 quarters.
• Macro and High-Frequency: Resident disposable income, consumer confidence and social retail sub-item data; industry channel inventory and discount levels; marginal changes in monetary and fiscal policies.
• Capital and Sentiment: Net inflow/outflow of southbound capital, changes in foreign capital holdings, institutional views and distribution of sell-side target prices.

[0] Jinling API Data
[1] Bloomberg/Reuters/FT (Temporarily inaccessible, to be verified and supplemented later) — Further research and views on “Valuation Repair of Hong Kong Stock Market Consumer Sector and New Consumption Opportunities”

If needed, I can continue:

• Call more tools to obtain the PE and historical percentile of the Hang Seng Consumer Index, financial and valuation indicators of target stocks, and macro and policy tracking;
• Create comparison charts (valuation percentile, price volatility, relative returns, PE-band, etc.) and conduct more detailed scenario analysis and probability assessment.