Seres (601127.SH) Investment Value Analysis

Based on the latest data analysis, Seres

, but faces many challenges in the short term. The current stock price of 120.67 Yuan has fallen by from the 52-week high of 174.66 Yuan [0], and technical indicators show that the stock price is in a [0]. From the DCF valuation perspective, the target price reaches in the base scenario and as high as in the optimistic scenario [0], indicating significant upside potential.

However, achieving the user’s expected “650,000 units sold in 2026 and 12.5 billion Yuan net profit” requires overcoming

. The following is a detailed analysis from three core driving factors.

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Indicator	Value	Industry Comparison
Market Capitalization	197.1 billion USD [0]	-
Current Stock Price	120.67 Yuan [0]	-
P/E (TTM)	27.30x [0]	Relatively Reasonable
P/B (TTM)	7.09x [0]	High
P/S (TTM)	1.32x [0]	Reasonable
ROE	32.11% [0]	Excellent
Net Profit Margin	4.84% [0]	Medium
Current Ratio	0.91 [0]	Low (Pay Attention to Liquidity)

:

• The current PE of 27.30x is relatively reasonable for a high-growth new energy vehicle company
• ROE of up to 32.11% shows excellent capital use efficiency
• The current ratio of 0.91 is slightly below the safety line; need to pay attention to cash flow status

Scenario	Fair Value	Increase vs Current Price	Key Assumptions
Conservative	1,399.22 Yuan	+1,059.5%	0% revenue growth, EBITDA margin -4.8%
Base	3,970.57 Yuan	+3,190.4%	78.5% revenue growth, EBITDA margin -5.1%
Optimistic	6,040.64 Yuan	+4,905.9%	81.5% revenue growth, EBITDA margin -5.3%

:

• Equity Cost: 11.1%
• Debt Cost: 8.9%
• WACC: 11.0%
• Beta: 0.94 [0]

: DCF valuation results show great potential upside, but note:

1. The base scenario assumes an
   annual revenue growth rate of 78.5%
   , which is highly difficult to achieve
2. The current EBITDA margin is
   negative
   (-5.1%); need to pay attention to the progress of profitability improvement
3. Analysts’ consensus EPS expectation for 2029 is 9.28 Yuan, implying a PE of about 13x

---

In December 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially announced that

, marking that L3-level autonomous driving has officially entered the [1][2].

[1][2]:

• June 2024
  : MIIT approved 9 car companies to carry out L3-level road access pilots
• September 2025
  : MIIT and 8 departments clearly stated “conditionally approve L3-level vehicle production access”
• December 2025
  : The first two L3 models were approved and officially launched in Chongqing and Beijing

1. Technical Reserve Advantage
   : Seres has in-depth cooperation with Huawei, and the AITO series is equipped with Huawei’s Kunlun Intelligent Driving ADS system. Among the first batch of L3 car companies,
   HarmonyOS Intelligent Mobility (including AITO) has started L3-level conditional autonomous driving internal testing in Shenzhen
   [2]

2. Mass Production Time Window
   : The industry generally sets
   late 2025 to 2026 as the key window for L3-level autonomous driving mass production
   [2]. This is highly consistent with the facelift plans of AITO M6 and M9L

3. Market Penetration Expectation
   : The China EV 100 Forum predicts that
   in 2026, pilot assisted driving (highway and urban NOA) will penetrate into the mainstream vehicle price range of 150,000 Yuan
   [2], which provides a good opportunity for the AITO M6 (280,000-320,000 Yuan)

• The first batch of L3 access models
  does not include the AITO series
  ; Seres needs to accelerate the application process
• L3 commercialization requires supporting improvements in
  liability determination, insurance systems, and infrastructure
• Competitors (Xpeng, Li Auto, NIO, etc.) are also intensively deploying L3 technology [1]

---

The Ministry of Finance and MIIT have clearly stated that

[5][6][7]:

Vehicle Type	Subsidy Standard	Key Conditions
BEV 300-400km	12,000 Yuan	Meet energy consumption limits
BEV 400-600km	18,000 Yuan	Meet energy consumption limits
BEV 600km+	24,000 Yuan	Meet energy consumption limits
PHEV/EREV	10,000 Yuan	WLTC pure electric ≥100km + qualified fuel consumption in亏电 state

:

1. Benefit for AITO M9 EREV Version
   : AITO M9 offers an EREV version, which needs to reach WLTC pure electric range of 100km to enjoy the 10,000 Yuan subsidy [7]
2. Policy Continuity Stabilizes Expectations
   : In sharp contrast to the U.S. canceling the $7,500 tax credit in September 2025 [5]
3. 叠加地方补贴
   : Shanghai and other places provide an additional 15,000 Yuan replacement subsidy, with a total discount of up to
   50,000 Yuan or more
   [7]

:

1. Purchase Tax Exemption Retrenchment
   : In 2026, it will change from
   full exemption to half exemption
   (maximum 15,000 Yuan) [6]
2. Higher Technical Threshold
   : PHEV models need WLTC pure electric ≥100km;
   about 30% of PHEV models do not meet the standard
   [7]
3. Market Impact Prediction
   : Morgan Stanley predicts that China’s passenger car sales may
   decline by 6%-8% in 2026
   [6]

Brokerage research reports predict that

[7]. This forms for Seres to achieve the 650,000-unit sales target, but need to be alert:

• There may be a
  sales correction period
  after the “rush installation” in Q1 2026
• The half exemption of purchase tax will increase the cost of 400,000 Yuan-level new energy vehicles by
  about 20,000 Yuan
  [6]

---

According to HarmonyOS Intelligent Mobility’s 2026 plan, the AITO series will launch the following new products [4]:

Model	Positioning	Price Range	Expected Launch Time
AITO M6	5-meter mid-to-large SUV	250,000-300,000 Yuan	2026
AITO M5 Facelift	Exterior and interior refresh + ADS 4.0	220,000-280,000 Yuan	Early 2026
AITO M7 Version 3.0	Space optimization + family configuration	300,000-350,000 Yuan	2026
AITO M9 Facelift	Luxury improvement	-	Second half of 2026
AITO M9L	Larger and more luxurious version (5.4-meter class)	600,000-700,000 Yuan	2026

:

1. M6 Fills the Gap
   : Perfectly connects M5 and M7, forming a complete SUV matrix of “5,6,7,8,9” [4]
2. M9L Goes Upmarket
   : Size increases to 5.4-meter class, price reaches 600,000-700,000 Yuan, filling the gap in the high-end market [4]
3. Technical Iteration
   : Equipped with the new generation HarmonyOS cockpit and
   Kunlun Intelligent Driving ADS 4.0 system
   [4]

(accounting for 35% of HarmonyOS Intelligent Mobility’s total sales) [4]

Growth Source	Expected Contribution	Analysis
M6 New Volume	80,000-120,000 Units	Fills the price gap of 280,000-320,000 Yuan, competing with Model Y
M7 Continuous Hot Sales	150,000-180,000 Units	Consolidates the top sales position in the 300,000-level SUV segment
M8/M9 Facelift	120,000-150,000 Units	M9 has been the top seller in the 500,000-level segment for 20 consecutive months [4]
M5 Facelift	30,000-50,000 Units	Focuses on young user groups

:

• User Expectation: 650,000 units sold in 2026
• Market Forecast: AITO 450,000-500,000 units (accounting for 35% of HarmonyOS Intelligent Mobility)
• Gap Analysis
  : To achieve 650,000 units, AITO needs to exceed the target by about 30%, or rely on other brands such as Zhijie and Xiangjie

:

• No
  public specific information
  about Seres building factories in Indonesia or Mexico was found in web search results
• Industry trends show that Chinese car companies generally choose to establish assembly bases in
  “tariff洼地” such as Mexico and Malaysia
  to avoid trade barriers [3]
• Reference Case: Xpeng has started KD assembly of X9 models in Indonesia, and the Malaysian EPMB factory will assemble multiple brand models [8]

:

• AITO M9 has delivered more than
  260,000 units
  in two years since its launch, mainly concentrated in the domestic market [4]
• China’s new energy vehicle exports are mainly concentrated in
  price-sensitive markets such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, and Eastern Europe
  [8]

:

• The construction cycle of overseas factories usually takes
  18-24 months
• Tariffs, localization rate requirements, and supply chain supporting facilities pose challenges
• In the short term (2026), overseas sales will contribute
  limitedly
  to total sales

---

Financial Dimension	Current Status	Rating	Key Issues
Financial Attitude	Conservative	Positive	High depreciation/capital expenditure ratio, profit has room for improvement
Profitability	Improving	Positive	2025Q3 revenue was 4.813 billion USD (YoY +74.7%)
Cash Flow	Positive	Positive	Free cash flow of 15.37 billion USD
Debt Risk	Medium	Attention	Need to pay attention to leverage ratio and interest coverage ratio

Indicator	User Expectation	Analyst Expectation (2029)	Feasibility Assessment
Sales Volume	650,000 Units	-	Challenging but Possible
Revenue	250 billion Yuan	232.4 billion Yuan	Highly Consistent ✓
Net Profit	12.5 billion Yuan	-	Corresponding to 5% net profit margin, consistent with current level
EPS	About 8.3 Yuan	9.28 Yuan	Analyst Expectation is Higher

:

• Revenue expectations are
  highly consistent
  with analysts, showing that market expectations are relatively rational
• 12.5 billion Yuan net profit corresponds to
  5% net profit margin
  , basically the same as the current 4.84% [0]
• The key variable lies in
  whether sales can reach 650,000 units
  and
  cost control capability

Time Node	Key Event	Performance Impact
2025Q4	Year-end sprint + subsidy policy switch	Sales remain high
2026Q1	Policy retrenchment digestion period + AITO M5 facelift launch	May experience a correction
2026Q2	AITO M6 launch + AITO M7 Version 3.0 launch	Sales gradually recover
2026Q3	AITO M9L release + L3 function gradually implemented	Performance Inflection Point Expectation
2026Q4	Year-end sprint + initial release of overseas capacity	Sprint for annual target

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Risk Category	Specific Risk	Impact Degree
Policy Risk	Subsidy retrenchment, half exemption of purchase tax	★★★★☆
Competition Risk	BBA accelerates electrification, new competitors like Xiaomi SU7	★★★★☆
Technical Risk	L3 commercialization progress is slower than expected	★★★☆☆
Capacity Risk	Overseas factory construction delay	★★★☆☆
Valuation Risk	Current PE is 27x; if growth slows down, valuation will be under pressure	★★★☆☆

:

• Trend
  : Sideways consolidation, no clear direction
• Support Level
  : 119.21 Yuan
• Resistance Level
  :123.14 Yuan
• Moving Average
  : The stock price fell below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages (134.75 Yuan and 134.43 Yuan)
• Trading Suggestion
  : Wait for the breakout of the 123.14 Yuan resistance level to confirm the reversal signal

:

• Rating
  : Neutral
• Reason
  : Sideways technical trend; policy retrenchment may lead to sales fluctuations in Q1 2026
• Strategy
  : Wait for the stock price to break through the 123.14 Yuan resistance level to confirm the right-side signal

:

• Rating
  : Buy
• Target Price
  :150-180 Yuan (based on 25-30x PE)
• Catalyst
  : AITO M6 launch, L3 function implementation, Q3 performance reversal

:

• Rating
  : Strong Buy
• Target Price
  : 200 Yuan+ (based on 2026 performance expectations)
• Core Logic
  : Huawei ecosystem moat + L3 first-mover advantage + complete product matrix

---

Seres

, but the time window may be delayed until the , rather than the first half as expected by users.

:

1. Strong Product Cycle
   : New products like M6 and M9L cover the full price range of 250,000-700,000 Yuan, forming a complete matrix [4]
2. Leading Technical Advantage
   : L3 autonomous driving policy breakthroughs, AITO is expected to follow up quickly [1][2]
3. Friendly Policy Environment
   : Subsidies extended until 2027, providing stable expectations [5][6][7]
4. Improving Financial Status
   : Q3 revenue increased by 74.7% YoY, with positive cash flow [0]

:

1. Short-term Policy Impact
   : Subsidy retrenchment and half exemption of purchase tax may pressure sales in Q1 2026 [6]
2. Increasing Competition
   : BBA accelerates electrification, new players like Xiaomi enter the market
3. Uncertainty in Overseas Capacity
   : No specific information about Indonesia and Mexico factories has been disclosed [3][8]
4. Valuation Pressure
   : Current PE is 27x; if growth slows, valuation will be under pressure

Indicator	User Expectation	Feasibility	Key Preconditions
650,000 Units Sales	★★★☆☆	Challenging but Possible	Successful M6 + Continuous Hot Sales of M7/M9 + Overseas Breakthrough
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