Energy Metals Supply-Demand Shift & A-share Mining Stocks Investment Analysis

###1. Latest Judgment on Supply-Demand Pattern and Key Disturbances

• Carbonate Lithium Cycle Recovery
  : The price of carbonate lithium has rebounded from the annual low (about 58,000 yuan/ton), and the average price of “battery-grade” exceeded 113,500 yuan/ton on December 24. The main futures contract hit a two-year high again with a daily increase of 5.9%, reflecting the market’s increased sensitivity to supply tightening [1]. The core disturbance comes from the significant delay in the resumption of production at CATL’s Yichun Jianxiawo Lithium Mine (it is difficult to return to full production before mid-2026). This mine’s capacity accounts for about 10% of domestic demand, and together with the cancellation of new mining rights and stricter resource supervision policies, it has increased the possibility of upstream bargaining power and inventory compression [1][3].
• Short-term Supply-Demand and Inventory Structure
  : Recently, the social inventory structure has adjusted from low inventory at salt factories and high inventory downstream to “de-stocking” progress. It is expected that upstream bargaining power will significantly improve against the background of de-stocking in 2026, which will help lift the price center; however, the expansion of the futures-spot price spread in the short term and the approaching delivery of LC2601 will bring certain correction pressure [3]. New supplies mainly come from Chinese salt lakes, overseas salt lakes, and African/Australian projects, but there is a gap in major new capacity between 2026 and 2027, and long-term supply elasticity is limited [3].
• Tightening Cobalt/Nickel Supply
  : The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)'s cobalt export quota will drop to 96,600 tons from 2026 to 2027, which is only 44% of the 2024 output. At the same time, it will implement new regulations such as quotas and prepaid royalties, which carry additional time and process costs, leading to a possible global supply gap of about 78,000 tons [5][6]. In addition, stricter supervision of nickel mines in Indonesia and the reform of the RKAB quota mechanism bring uncertainty to ore supplies (approval cycle shortened to one year). Coupled with the orderly commissioning of domestic hydrometallurgical projects, this means that cobalt and nickel supplies will shift to structural tightness in the next two years, pushing up the average price [5][7].
• Structural Demand Side
  : Although the overall growth rate of new energy vehicles has slowed down, the annual penetration rate has steadily increased (new energy vehicle sales may reach 13 million units in 2025). At the same time, new demands such as energy storage, eVTOL, and robots are growing rapidly—energy storage shipments increased by 40% year-on-year, eVTOL is expected to be scaled up from 2026 to 2028, and the low-cost expectation of solid-state batteries further supports long-term demand [4]. This means that the currently unabsorbed capacity and inventory will gradually be converted into price and profit support driven by new tracks.

###2. Impact on Valuation/Investment Value of A-share Related Mining Stocks

• Technical Aspects and Sentiment
  : Tianqi Lithium (002466) and Ganfeng Lithium (002460) have broken out of a breakthrough trend. Technical indicators show “overheating” signals but the trend is still bullish. Pay attention to the pressure in the 58-69 yuan range in the short term; if the upward attack is confirmed, you can continue to track [0].
• Fundamental Perspective
  : The latest quarterly reports of the two companies still show a mixed financial attitude. Although free cash flow is negative, debt risks (low for Tianqi, medium for Ganfeng) are under control, and the cycle recovery brings profit elasticity opportunities [0]. Qinghai Salt Lake (000792) and salt lake resource companies such as Zhongke Mining/Yongxing Special Materials benefit from the cost advantage of high-purity soda ash, with stable cash flow and reasonable valuation [0].
• Cobalt-Nickel Integration Leaders
  : Huayou Cobalt (603799) and CMOC Group (603993) have secured three types of resources: cobalt, nickel, and lithium through industrial chain integration. Huayou Cobalt announced continuous signing of long-term precursor supply contracts and expansion of cobalt-nickel projects, with significant revenue/net profit growth in the third quarter; financial reports show that Free Cash Flow is negative but can be reversed during the industry’s high boom period, and its balance sheet is switching from “high risk” to “elasticity” [0][5]. CMOC Group has positive free cash flow, low risk rating, and its cobalt quota in the DRC accounts for more than 30%, enjoying industrial chain bargaining power under quota restrictions [0][6].
• Valuation Elasticity
  : Rare metal ETFs and theme indices have risen nearly 90% this year, but the sector’s PE/PB is still in the historical low range, and some individual stocks are below replacement cost. If supply disturbances continue and demand shifts to strategic growth (energy storage, military industry), there is room for re-evaluation of valuations [2][4]. Focus on targets with strong resource security attributes, stable cash flow, and transparent capacity expansion in the portfolio.

###3. Investment Opportunities and Risk Warnings

• Opportunities
  : Supply tightening (Yichun lithium mine, DRC cobalt quota, Indonesia nickel supervision) + new demand (solid-state batteries, energy storage, eVTOL) form a “strategic resource” re-pricing, which is reflected in lithium prices having hit 120,000 yuan/ton and cobalt prices having risen from 160,000 yuan at the beginning of the year to over 400,000 yuan. Related A-share resource stocks are entering a performance turning point.
• Risks
  : If global new energy demand is lower than expected, the commercialization speed of solid-state batteries lags, or macro liquidity tightens sharply, it may suppress metal demand and valuations; in addition, lithium, cobalt, and nickel prices are highly volatile, and futures/spot spreads and source policy adjustments (such as quota extension or relaxation) need to be continuously tracked.

###4. Strategy Recommendations

1. Phased Allocation
   : In the early stage of cycle recovery, you can select leading companies with resource + processing + customer synergy (such as Tianqi, Ganfeng, Huayou, CMOC Group) to grasp the profit elasticity brought by upstream supply contraction.
2. Diversification Tools
   : Capture the linked rebound of aluminum, copper, and strategic metals through rare metal theme ETFs (such as 159608, 516650) or cross-resource portfolios.
3. Focus on Industrial Chain Turning Points
   : Closely monitor the resumption progress of Yichun Jianxiawo Lithium Mine, the dynamics of DRC cobalt export policies and Indonesia’s RKAB regulations, as well as the capacity release of mid-stream materials for solid-state batteries (sulfide electrolytes), and adjust positions if necessary.

###5. Conclusion

Energy metals supply and demand are switching from “surplus expectation” to “structural shortage”. If the above supply disturbances continue and new growth points on the demand side are realized, the value of related A-share mining stocks is expected to be re-recognized by the market. It is recommended to participate in stages according to the supply-demand rhythm, confirm breakthroughs based on the company’s fundamentals and technical aspects, and continuously track policies and downstream technology progress. For more in-depth quantitative models or cross-company comparisons, consider launching the “in-depth research mode”.