Energy Heavyweight Position and Allocation Strategy Evaluation (As of 2025-12-28)

Based on the latest data and research, this is a systematic evaluation of your energy heavyweight positions and allocation strategy (as of 2025-12-28). The following analysis strictly relies on references from called tool results and public information to ensure no speculation.

I. Long-term Investment Logic for Oil & Gas: Dual Support from Cycles and Dividends (Scenario Differentiation Required)

1. Demand Side: Peak Time and Scenario Differences

• The executive summary of the IEA World Energy Outlook 2025 states: Under the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), global oil demand is expected to peak at approximately 102 million barrels per day around 2030, then enter a slow decline phase [1]. Notes:
  • Different scenarios (APS, NZE, etc.) lead to differences in peak time and peak value;
  • Demand structure and rhythm have regional and technological path uncertainties; simple linear extrapolation is not advisable.
• McKinsey’s 2025 Global Energy Perspective suggests: Under the three scenarios of “Slow Evolution/Continuous Momentum/Sustainable Transformation”, the share of fossil energy will remain high, with cost and supply security as key constraints [2].

2. Price and Cycle: High Volatility and Coexistence of Multiple Scenarios

• Goldman Sachs report (relayed by Xueqiu) predicts: The average Brent crude oil price in 2026 will be approximately $56 per barrel (quarterly details: Q1 ~ $58, Q2 ~ $54, Q4 rebounds to $57) [2]. If oil prices are significantly lower than current levels, profits and valuations may face pressure.
• Some market views (Xueqiu columns) lean towards the long-term average judgment of “average oil price of about $80 per barrel over the next five years”, corresponding to a calculation of CNOOC’s annual return of about 10% (capital appreciation ~5.4% + dividend ~4.57%) [2].
• Trading level: WTI oil prices have repeatedly fluctuated near the 50-day moving average; short-term geopolitics and macro data provide support, but technical analysis indicates that an upward trend will be confirmed only after breaking key resistance levels [1].
• Cycle positioning: In the two historical downward cycles, CNOOC’s valuation (PB/PE) bottomed out when oil prices were $35-$40 per barrel (PB ~0.58-0.60) and peaked when oil prices were around $75-$80 per barrel (PB ~1.4 or above) [2]. Which cycle position current oil prices and valuations are in needs dynamic assessment combining marginal supply-demand and geopolitical events.

3. Supply Side: Key Inflection Point in 2026

• Goldman Sachs report also suggests: 2026 may be the year when supply falls after the peak of the “last wave of supply surge”, which will have a structural impact on the balance and price between 2026-2030 [2].

II. Data Verification and Risk Points of Your Current Holdings

• CNOOC (0883.HK): Real-time P/E ~7.20, market price HK$20.60 (52-week range: 15.50-23.30) [0]. Under low oil price scenarios (e.g., Brent $56), profits and valuations may come under pressure; under neutral to optimistic scenarios (e.g., long-term average Brent $80), the valuation and dividend logic remain attractive.
• Tencent (0700.HK): Current P/E ~24.53, market price HK$603 (52-week range: 364.80-683.00) [0]. Internet volatility is more from regulation, business structure, and valuation shifts, belonging to the “growth + cash flow” logic, with low correlation to energy cycles.
• Qingdao Port (6198.HK): Current P/E ~7.77, market price HK$6.99 (52-week range:5.44-7.74) [0]. Port business has cash flow and defensive attributes but is susceptible to global trade and freight rate cycles.

III. Traditional vs. New Energy Allocation: Guided by Scenarios and Rhythms

1. Principles

• Traditional and new energy should not be viewed from the perspective of “linear substitution”. Fossil energy will still occupy an important share in the foreseeable decade-plus [2], and allocation should be dynamically adjusted in stages and scenarios.
• New energy (wind, solar, energy storage, power grid equipment, digitalization) has a long-term upward trend, but there are fluctuations due to technical routes, capacity cycles, electricity prices/subsidies/grid access, etc.

2. Optional Layered Thinking (Scenario + Cycle, Not Fixed Ratio)

• Defense layer: Represented by CNOOC with “high cash flow + dividends + cost advantages”, suitable for increasing weight in low valuation ranges (e.g., oil prices falling to cycle bottom areas); moderately reduce positions when oil prices are high and valuations are elevated.
• Growth layer: Allocate new energy leaders with technical moats and overseas expansion capabilities (e.g., inverter/component leaders, power grid digitalization/equipment leaders), track technical iterations and market share changes quarterly/semi-annually, and dynamically adjust weights with valuations.
• Hedge layer: Moderately focus on energy transition infrastructure (e.g., LNG, power grid upgrades, flexibility resources) to reduce exposure to single oil prices or single technical routes.

IV. Executable Optimization Points for 2026 (Operational Level)

• Establish a three-dimensional tracking table (monthly) for oil price-profit-valuation: Brent/WTI spot and futures structure, CNOOC’s quarterly production and barrel oil cost, valuation multiples (P/E, P/B), dividend yield and share repurchase rhythm.
• Set phased position management for CNOOC: For example, moderately increase holdings when high-frequency data indicates tight supply, rising geopolitical premiums, and low valuations; reduce positions to lock in gains when supply expands rapidly, inventories accumulate, and oil prices break key support levels.
• New energy positions follow “technical cycle + industry rhythm”: Increase weight when industry capacity is cleared, leading companies’ profits improve, and policies are marginally clearly upward; reduce weight during overcapacity, price wars, and valuation bubble phases.
• Ports and internet serve as structural diversification layers, not directly hedging energy positions; they are used to smooth industry beta, enhance portfolio non-correlation, and stabilize cash flow.

V. Summary Recommendations for You (Based on Current Data and Public Research)

• CNOOC faces profit and valuation pressure under low oil price scenarios (e.g., Brent $56), but the long-term dividend logic and valuation elasticity at cycle bottoms still have allocation value; it is suitable for phased, dynamic position management rather than mechanical heavy holdings [2].
• Allocation should be scenario and cycle-oriented: Traditional energy focuses on timing and phased entry/exit; new energy focuses on technical cycles and industry rhythms; no fixed ratio, dynamically adjusted with marginal information.
• It is recommended to establish monthly tracking of oil prices (spot/futures/forward curves), company indicators (production, cost, valuation, dividends), and new energy policies/technologies/capacity; conduct rhythmic operations based on your band trading capabilities.

References
[0] Jinling API data (real-time quotes and valuations for CNOOC (0883.HK), Tencent (0700.HK), Qingdao Port (6198.HK)).
[1] IEA World Energy Outlook 2025 Executive Summary (Chinese version): https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/bb992cac-2515-490d-ae02-c83bf634c9cc/WEO2025_Executivesummary_Chinese.pdf.
[2] Relayed from Xueqiu and McKinsey reports/columns:

• Xueqiu columns: Posts like “Oil prices are too pessimistic; the average oil price over the next five years should be around $80 per barrel” and “Where is this oil cycle now?” (views on Brent $56/$80 scenarios, historical cycle valuations, 4.57% dividend yield, etc.): https://xueqiu.com/4629476821/363991146; https://xueqiu.com/S/00883; https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20251218082010782524550.
• Relayed from McKinsey’s 2025 Global Energy Perspective report: http://www.sinopecnews.com.cn/xnews/content/2025-12/04/content_7138458.html.