2026 Investor Portfolio Allocation Optimization and Oil & Gas + Internet Portfolio Analysis

Based on the latest market data and industry analysis, I will provide professional insights from two dimensions: investment strategy balance and portfolio sustainability.

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This investor’s ‘half value investing, half swing trading’ strategy

; the key lies in clear differentiation and strict execution:

• CNOOC Limited (0883.HK):
  P/E ratio is only 6.93x, ROE reaches 16.65%, strong cash flow (EV/OCF: 4.08x), a typical value stock [0]
• Qingdao Port:
  Port assets have monopoly attributes, stable cash flow, suitable for long-term holding

• Holding Period:
  Over 3-5 years, to ride through industry cycles
• Trading Frequency:
  Adjust positions only based on fundamental changes, not short-term fluctuations
• Profit-Taking Strategy:
  Reduce positions when valuation is significantly higher than historical average (e.g., P/E > 10x) or fundamentals deteriorate

• Tencent Holdings (0700.HK):
  Although it has long-term value, it has high volatility (Beta 0.85) due to AI technology changes and policy environment [0]
• Industry Theme Rotation:
  High-growth but high-volatility sectors like internet, AI applications, new energy

• Holding Period:
  Weeks to months, based on technical indicators and market sentiment
• Trading Trigger:
  Technical indicators (KDJ, MACD), event-driven factors, earnings season
• Stop-Loss Mechanism:
  Strictly implement 5%-8% stop-loss to control single loss

1. Total Position Control:
   Single stock should not exceed 40% of the portfolio to avoid over-concentration
2. Rebalancing Mechanism:
   Review quarterly, adjust when value/swing position ratio deviates by 5 percentage points
3. Capital Separation:
   Use independent capital account for swing trading to avoid affecting mentality

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Financial Indicators	Value	Evaluation
P/E Ratio	6.93x	Significantly undervalued, high safety margin
P/B Ratio	1.13x	Low risk of breaking net asset value
ROE	16.65%	Excellent profitability
Net Profit Margin	31.83%	Stable leading position in the industry [0]

• Cost Advantage:
  CNOOC’s offshore oil extraction cost is in the global first tier; it can still profit when oil price falls below $50/barrel
• High Dividend:
  Based on current valuation, dividend yield is expected to exceed 6%, providing stable cash flow
• Supply-Demand Balance:
  Although there was oversupply in 2025 (1.72 million barrels/day surplus), OPEC+ announced to suspend production increase in Q1 2026, which is expected to ease pressure [1]

Key Data:

JPMorgan predicts Brent crude oil average price will be only $57-$58/barrel in 2026; if OPEC+ does not cut production, oil price may drop to $30/barrel by end of 2027 [1]. This will have a substantial impact on oil and gas companies’ profits.

• Holding Strategy:
  Continue to hold as high-dividend bottom position, but not suitable to increase positions further
• Key Indicators to Watch:
  Closely monitor OPEC+ production cut implementation, U.S. shale oil production, global inventory levels
• Hedging Tools:
  If holding a large position, consider buying put options to protect against downside risk

Indicator	Value	Evaluation
Market Cap	HK$5.48 trillion	Solid position as internet giant
P/E Ratio	22.08x	Valuation has recovered to reasonable range
ROE	20.29%	Excellent capital return
YTD Increase	+44.95%	Significant rebound in 2025 [0]

1. Technology Change:
   Marked by the release of DeepSeek-R1 in 2025, AI has “changed the game rules of Chinese tech stocks”, and related sectors’ market cap increased by over $2 trillion [2]

2. Commercialization Acceleration:
   UBS predicts Chinese AI applications will accelerate monetization in 2026; scenarios like intelligent agent business, AI-native advertising, multi-modal applications will mature [2]

3. Policy Support:
   “Anti-involution” policy has become a national strategy, which helps improve the profit environment of the internet industry [2]

• Tencent’s increase in 2025 has reached 44.95%, valuation has recovered from the bottom
• Current P/E of 22x is lower than U.S. tech stocks, but short-term revaluation space is limited
• Macro risks like Hong Kong stock market liquidity and China-U.S. relations still need to be considered

• Mainly Swing Trading:
  32% position is overweight; recommend reducing to 20%-25%
• Trading Rhythm:
  Use events like AI technology iteration and earnings season for high selling and low buying
• Long-Term Allocation:
  Keep 15%-20% as core position to share long-term AI dividends

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[Heavy Position Exposure Risk]
Oil & Gas (45%) + Internet (32%) =77% concentrated in two high-volatility sectors

[Excessively High Industry Concentration]
- Lack of defensive sectors (pharmaceuticals, consumer staples)
- Lack of policy-benefited sectors (high-end manufacturing, new energy)
- Overweight in Hong Kong stocks, lack of A-share diversification

1. Reduce Oil & Gas Position:
   From 45% to 30%-35%
   • Reason: Increasing downside risk of oil price; lock in partial gains from 2025

2. Optimize Internet Allocation:
   From32% to 25%
   • Keep Tencent at20% as core position
   • Add5%-10% allocation to A-share AI application companies (e.g., iFLYTEK, Kingsoft Office)

3. **Add Defensive Sectors:**10%-15%

   • High-dividend stocks: Power, operators (China Mobile)
   • Consumer staples: Liquor leaders (Kweichow Moutai), dairy products

4. **Layout Policy Themes:**10%-15%

   • “Going Global” leaders: Manufacturing companies with high overseas revenue share
   • “New Quality Productivity”: Semiconductor equipment, industrial automation

[Value Investing Position 50%]
├─ High Dividend Low Volatility30%
│  ├─ Oil & Gas Leader (CNOOC20%)
│  └─ Utilities/Operators10%
└─ Growth Value20%
   └─ Internet Core Assets (Tencent15% + A-share Tech5%)

[Swing Trading Position40%]
├─ AI Theme15%
├─ Going Global Concept10%
├─ Policy Theme10%
└─ Cash & Short-Term Bonds5%

[Flexible Cash10%]

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##4. Core Conclusions and Execution Recommendations

###4.1 Sustainability Assessment of Oil & Gas + Internet Portfolio

Dimension	Rating	Core Logic
Profit Sustainability	⭐⭐⭐	Oil & Gas faces oil price downside; internet enters AI monetization phase
Valuation Safety Margin	⭐⭐⭐⭐	CNOOC’s low valuation provides protection; Tencent’s valuation has recovered
Portfolio Balance	⭐⭐	Excessively concentrated in industries; lack of hedging allocation
Overall Sustainability	⭐⭐⭐	Need to adjust position structure to reduce concentration risk

This portfolio in2026 instead of simple replication. The oil & gas sector can be retained as a high-dividend bottom position, but its weight should be reduced to around30%; the internet sector should return from overweight to standard allocation, and seize AI theme opportunities through swing trading.

###4.2 Specific Recommendations for Investors

1. 2026 Q1 Action List:
   • [ ] Take profits on 10%-15% of CNOOC position (if oil price rebounds above HK$22)
   • [ ] Reduce Tencent position to 20%-25% range
   • [ ] Add 5%-10% of A-share AI application targets
   • [ ] Build10% high-dividend defensive portfolio (power, operators)

2. Key Monitoring Indicators:
   • Oil price: Can Brent crude hold the $60/barrel level
   • AI commercialization: Revenue growth rate of AI business of Tencent and Alibaba Cloud
   • Policy signals: “Anti-involution” policy details, internet regulatory attitude

3. Mental Preparation:
   • 22% return in 2025 is excellent; lower return expectation to10%-15% in 2026
   • Strictly execute swing trading discipline to avoid turning swing into long-term
   • Keep 10% cash to respond to unexpected opportunities

This investor’s ‘half value investing, half swing trading’ framework is mature, but specific allocation needs dynamic adjustment based on2026 market environment. The core logic of oil & gas + internet still holds in 2026, but risk control is needed by reducing position concentration and adding defensive allocation. .

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[0] Jinling API Data - Financial data, real-time quotes, technical analysis of CNOOC Limited (0883.HK) and Tencent Holdings (0700.HK)

[1] Investing.com - “Crude Oil Market Turning Point: Oversupply Pressure Looms, Will Oil Price Face Winter or Dawn Next Year?” (https://cn.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/article-3138855)

[2] Wall Street CN - “Goldman Sachs Reviews Top 10 Insights of Chinese Stock Market in2025: AI Revalues Tech, Anti-involution Restores Profits” (https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761884)

[3] Xinhuanet - “‘Technology Narrative’ Becomes Increasingly Clear, International Capital Increases Investment in Chinese Stock Market” (http://www.news.cn/tech/20251211/36a693da9f6b47f5bfd075b51fa8a1c0/c.html)

[4] Eastmoney.com - “Year-End Review｜2025, AI Industry Quietly Changes” (https://biz.eastmoney.com/a/202512253602214094.html)

[5] International Energy Agency (IEA) - World Energy Outlook2025 Executive Summary (https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/bb992cac-2515-490d-ae02-c83bf634c9cc/WEO2025_Executivesummary_Chinese.pdf)

The above analysis is based on data available as of December 28,2025. Market conditions may change; investment decisions should be combined with personal risk tolerance