Can Three Squirrels' Life Store Model Support Its Revenue Return to 10 Billion Yuan?

Three Squirrels (stock code: 300783.SZ) is a well-known nut snack brand in China, founded in 2012, and once became a leading enterprise in China’s leisure food industry. Founded by Zhang Liaoyuan, the company reached a revenue peak of 10.17 billion yuan in 2019 with the rapid rise of e-commerce channels, becoming a benchmark enterprise in the domestic nut snack industry [0][1].

However, in recent years, the company has faced severe challenges. According to the latest financial data, the company’s current market capitalization is about 9.38 billion US dollars (approximately 65.6 billion yuan), with a price-to-book ratio of 3.16 times and a price-to-earnings ratio of 41.33 times [0]. From the stock price performance, the company has fallen by 36.45% in the past year and 40.13% YTD, showing the capital market’s concern about the company’s development prospects [0].

According to public data, Three Squirrels’ revenue has experienced a significant decline [1][2]:

Year	Revenue (100 million yuan)	YoY Change
2019	101.7	Peak year
2023	71.1	Down about 30%

From the 10-billion-yuan level revenue in 2019 to 7.11 billion yuan in 2023, the decline is close to 30%, which reflects the pressure the company faces in market competition. The latest quarterly financial report shows that the company’s revenue in Q3 2025 was 2.28 billion US dollars (about 16 billion yuan at the current exchange rate), but this data is based on US stock financial report standards and may have statistical differences [0].

From the perspective of financial indicators, Three Squirrels’ profitability is obviously under pressure [0]:

• Net profit margin
  : Only 2.03%, at a low level
• Operating profit margin
  : 2.14%, indicating limited profitability of the main business
• ROE (Return on Equity)
  : 7.69%, at the mid-level of the industry
• Free cash flow
  : 337 million yuan in the latest year, and the cash flow situation is relatively stable

The company’s financial attitude is analyzed as ‘aggressive’, which means that it may have adopted some more aggressive strategies in accounting treatment [0]. At the same time, the company’s debt risk is assessed as ‘low risk’, which provides a certain financial buffer space for future development.

Three Squirrels Life Store is an offline retail strategy that the company has focused on promoting in recent years, aiming to create a comprehensive store integrating product sales, brand experience, and social interaction [1][2]. The core concept of this model is to build a full-link management system from ‘field to table’:

:

• Internal R&D and collaborative development system
• Dual-track operation of self-operated factories and preferred suppliers
• Perfect warehousing and logistics distribution network

:

• B2B channels (bulk procurement, corporate customization)
• B2C channels (online-offline integration)
• Retail stores (direct operation and franchising in parallel)

The strategic positioning of the Life Store model is to become a ‘community-level comprehensive service terminal for leisure food’, which not only sells nut snacks but also provides diversified product lines such as baked goods, dried fruits and preserves, and imported foods. This model draws on the concepts of Japan’s ‘convenience store+’ and China’s ‘new retail’, emphasizing experiential consumption and community stickiness.

From the perspective of positioning, the Life Store model forms differentiated competition with traditional street snack shops and convenience stores, targeting middle-to-high-end consumer groups who pursue quality life and are willing to pay for experiences.

The competition in China’s leisure food market is becoming increasingly fierce, and the pressure from the following aspects continues to increase:

• International brands
  : Multinational enterprises such as Mondelez International are increasing their investment in the Chinese market
• Local emerging brands
  : Brands such as Bestore and Be&Cheery continue to make efforts
• Channel changes
  : New channels such as live-streaming e-commerce and community group buying are diverting traditional retail

According to industry reports, the rise of local leisure food enterprises is challenging international brands, and Three Squirrels needs to maintain its differentiated advantages in this competitive pattern.

From the financial data, the company faces multiple cost pressures:

• Risk of raw material price fluctuations
• Store rent and labor costs continue to rise
• Increased marketing and promotion expenses

The current net profit margin of 2.03% and operating profit margin of 2.14% mean that the company’s profit margin is extremely limited. If the revenue scale expands but the profit margin cannot be improved, the company’s profitability will face greater pressure.

The income level of Chinese residents continues to increase, and the trend of consumption upgrade is obvious. As a middle-to-high-end nut brand, Three Squirrels is expected to benefit from this trend. The Life Store model can better meet the needs of consumption upgrade by providing high-quality shopping experiences and high-end product combinations.

After the e-commerce dividend period, the value of offline channels is being re-recognized. Functions such as brand experience, instant consumption, and social scenarios are difficult to replace by online channels. If the Life Store model can successfully create a differentiated offline experience, it is expected to form a unique competitive advantage.

From industry experience, the franchise model can help enterprises quickly achieve channel sinking and market coverage. If Three Squirrels can establish a mature franchise system, it can theoretically achieve rapid growth in the number of stores in a short period of time, thereby promoting revenue scale expansion.

After comprehensive analysis, the following judgments exist regarding the supporting role of Three Squirrels’ Life Store model for the goal of revenue returning to 10 billion yuan:

Dimension	Evaluation	Explanation
Business logic	★★★☆☆	Reasonable model design, but insufficient innovation
Execution ability	★★★☆☆	Need to verify store operation and franchise management capabilities
Market space	★★★★☆	Consumption upgrade and offline experience demand exist
Competitive barrier	★★★☆☆	Differentiation level needs to be improved
Financial feasibility	★★★☆☆	Need to balance scale expansion and profitability

If Three Squirrels wants to achieve revenue returning to 10 billion yuan through the Life Store model, it needs to pay attention to the following key factors:

1. Single-store model success
   : Indicators such as per-square-meter efficiency, per-person efficiency, and repurchase rate of the first store and early stores need to reach a healthy level
2. Improved franchise system
   : Establish standardized franchise management systems to ensure brand consistency and service quality
3. Product differentiation
   : Life stores need to provide exclusive products or experiences different from online channels
4. Cost control ability
   : Keep costs under control during store expansion to avoid diseconomies of scale
5. Capital support
   : Store expansion requires a lot of capital investment, and it is necessary to ensure stable funding sources

(Revenue returns to 10 billion yuan):

• The Life Store model is recognized by the market, and the number of stores expands rapidly
• Monthly average revenue per store reaches excellent industry level
• The franchise system operates smoothly, and brand potential continues to improve
• It is expected to achieve revenue returning to 10 billion yuan in 2026-2027

(Moderate revenue growth):

• The Life Store model progresses steadily, but the expansion speed is lower than expected
• Some stores perform below expectations and need adjustment and optimization
• Revenue may回升 to the range of 8-9 billion yuan, but there is still a gap from the 10-billion-yuan target

(Revenue continues to be under pressure):

• The Life Store model is hindered in promotion, and store operation problems occur frequently
• Market competition intensifies, and market share is eroded by competitors
• Revenue may further decline to below 6 billion yuan

1. Execution risk
   : There is high execution difficulty in transforming from e-commerce genes to offline retail
2. Capital risk
   : Store expansion requires continuous capital investment, which may put pressure on the company’s cash flow
3. Competition risk
   : The Life Store model may be quickly imitated by competitors
4. Consumption risk
   : Macroeconomic fluctuations may affect consumption willingness

Three Squirrels’ Life Store model has certain feasibility in business logic, and can support the company’s channel diversification and brand upgrading strategy to a certain extent. However, from the current situation, it is very difficult for this model to support the revenue returning to 10 billion yuan target alone, for the following reasons:

1. Large base gap
   : Returning from 7.11 billion yuan to 10 billion yuan requires a growth of about 41%, which is a significant challenge
2. Profit margin constraint
   : Even if revenue growth is achieved, the current profit margin of about 2% is difficult to translate into substantial profit improvement
3. Insufficient model verification
   : The Life Store model is still in the early stage of development, and its long-term sustainability needs to be verified
4. Fierce competitive environment
   : The competition pattern of the leisure food industry is complex, and the Life Store model faces competition from multiple aspects

: Three Squirrels’ Life Store model can be an important part of the company’s strategic transformation, but it is recommended to regard it as a medium-to-long-term layout rather than the only engine for short-term revenue growth. While maintaining the advantages of online channels, the company needs to prudently promote offline store expansion to ensure the balanced development of ‘scale and efficiency’.

For investors, it is recommended to continue to pay attention to key indicators such as the company’s store expansion progress, single-store operation indicators, and franchise system maturity to evaluate the actual effect of the Life Store model. At the current valuation level (P/E ratio of 41.33 times), the market has relatively high growth expectations for the company, and investors need to carefully evaluate the risk-return ratio.

[0] Jinling AI Brokerage API - Three Squirrels (300783.SZ) Company Overview and Financial Data (December 27, 2025)

[1] Food Industry Research Report - Analysis of Three Squirrels’ Life Store Business Model (https://static.foodtalks.cn/image/post/)

[2] Industry Analysis Report - Three Squirrels’ Revenue Change Trend (2019-2023) (https://static.foodtalks.cn/image/post/)

[3] Wall Street Journal Chinese Website - Analysis of the Rise of Chinese Local Leisure Food Enterprises (https://cn.wsj.com/articles/)