Analysis of Guizhou Moutai's Channel Inventory and the Authenticity of Its 2025 Financial Report Revenue

According to the latest market data, the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai made a historic breakthrough in December 2025:

Time Point	Loose Bottle Wholesale Price	Original Case Wholesale Price	Gap vs. Guide Price
Dec 10, 2025	1,500 yuan/bottle	1,520 yuan/bottle	Approaching 1499 yuan
Dec 11, 2025	1,495 yuan/bottle	1,450 yuan/bottle	Fell below 1499 yuan [1][2]
Dec 12, 2025	1,485 yuan/bottle	-	Hit a new all-time low[2]

This is the first time the wholesale price has fallen below the guide price since Moutai raised Feitian Moutai’s guide price from 1,299 yuan to 1,499 yuan in 2018, marking the official end of Moutai’s years-long price ‘myth’.

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According to data from Hurun Research Institute and China Alcoholic Drinks Association:

Time	Industry Average Inventory Turnover Days	YoY Change
2024	862 days	-
End of Q3 2025	1,424 days	+65.21% [3]
2025 Full-Year Forecast	900-1,100 days	Significantly deteriorated[4][5]

: The 2025 liquor industry inventory turnover days have reached as high as 900 days, meaning it takes to clear the channel inventory, which is a systemic risk facing the liquor industry[4].

Indicator	Data	Risk Assessment
Moutai Channel Inventory Turnover Days	600-900 days (estimated)	High Risk [3]
Dealer Pickup Cycle	3-6 months (previously 1-3 months)	Significantly Deteriorated [3]
Channel Inventory Value	300-500 billion yuan (estimated)	Severe Capital Occupation

From the financial data perspective, Guizhou Moutai’s 2025 revenue growth rate showed a

:

Quarter	Revenue Growth Rate	QoQ Change	Risk Signal
Q1 2025	10.54%	-	Surface Stability
Q2 2025	7.28%	-3.26pp	Started to Slow
Q3 2025	0.56%	-6.72pp	Nearly Stagnant [3]
Q4 2025E	Negative Growth	-	Expected to Deteriorate

: Although the full-year 2025 revenue may remain at around 173 billion yuan (YoY growth of about 1.2%), this growth is based on rather than real consumption demand growth.

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In the past, the liquor industry has long relied on the ‘channel stockpiling’ model, where alcohol companies transfer inventory pressure to dealers to achieve ‘paper growth’[3]. However:

• Dealers’ willingness to pay has dropped significantly
  : Moutai’s continuous price decline has exposed dealers to inventory loss risks
• Direct Sales Channel Also Declined
  : Moutai’s direct sales channel revenue in Q3 2025 was 15.546 billion yuan,
  down nearly 15% YoY
  [3]
• iMoutai Platform Revenue Plummeted by 57.24%
  : Online channel contribution shrank sharply[3]

According to statistics from ‘Zishi Hui’[3]:

• In the first three quarters of 2021, 20 alcohol companies had inventory of about
  105 billion yuan
• At the end of Q3 2025, the total inventory of 20 listed alcohol companies was
  176.686 billion yuan
  , up 11% YoY
• Increased by 63% over four years
  , meaning tens of billions of yuan of capital was ‘frozen’ in inventory

According to financial analysis, Guizhou Moutai is classified as having an ‘

’ with a low depreciation/capital expenditure ratio, which means [0].

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Dimension	Assessment	Explanation
Revenue Growth Quality	Questionable	Growth mainly relies on channel stockpiling, not real consumption
Profit Sustainability	Under Pressure	Double squeeze from price decline and inventory backlog
Cash Flow Quality	Deteriorated	Extended dealer payment cycle
Channel Health	High Risk	Inventory turnover days hit a new high

From the perspective of channel inventory turnover days, the authenticity of Guizhou Moutai’s 2025 reported revenue is

:

1. ‘Paper Growth’ Is Unsustainable
   : Channel inventory turnover days extended from 862 days in 2024 to over 1400 days in 2025, indicating that the actual sales speed is far lower than the reported revenue growth rate[3][4]

2. Price Signal Broke First
   : The wholesale price falling below the guide price is a direct reflection of channel inventory pressure,预示着 reported revenue growth is about to face an inflection point[1][2]

3. De-stocking Cycle Has Just Started
   : The liquor industry has fully entered the ‘stock competition’ era, and the era of growth driven by government consumption, investment speculation, and channel hoarding has ended[2][5]

• Short-Term Risk
  : Channel inventory clearance may lead to further decline in wholesale prices, compressing dealers’ profit margins
• Mid-Term Risk
  : Reported revenue growth rate may further slow down or even turn negative
• Long-Term Risk
  : If the channel inventory problem cannot be effectively solved, it may affect Moutai’s brand value and pricing power

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[1] Weikehao - “From Belief to ‘Price Break’: Moutai’s Unprecedented Price Change in a Decade, Rewriting the Liquor Industry Pattern” (https://mp.ofweek.com/digitaleconomy/a356714349567)

[2] Sina Finance - “Feitian Moutai’s Wholesale Price Falls Below Guide Price, Signaling the Start of a New Era for the Industry?” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2025-12-12/doc-inhaprxe7007699.shtml)

[3] Jiemian News - “Fell Below 1499 Yuan, Even Moutai Can’t Sell” (https://www.jiemian.com/article/13730766.html)

[4] 36Kr - “Fell Below 1499 Yuan, Even Moutai Can’t Sell” (https://m.36kr.com/p/3585007030434953)

[5] Hurun Research Institute - Related Reports on “2025 China Food Industry Top 100 List” (https://cn.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/article-3139688)

[0] Jinling AI Financial Database - Guizhou Moutai Company Overview and Financial Analysis Data