Analysis of Junlebao Milk Powder Market Share and 2026 Revenue Growth Drivers

According to the latest market data, Junlebao achieved multiple key breakthroughs in 2024. In the low-temperature yogurt segment, the group and its low-temperature yogurt products

in market share, successfully achieving counter-trend growth [1]. Its high-end fresh milk brand “Yuexianhuo” performed particularly well, with growth doubling for three consecutive years; in 2024, it held in the bottled high-end fresh milk market, firmly ranking first in the high-end fresh milk market [2]. In terms of milk powder business, Junlebao was the first to pass the European double certification, achieving the market position of [1].

From the perspective of historical performance, Junlebao maintained a strong growth trend from 2017 to 2021, with revenue rising from 10.2 billion yuan to 20.3 billion yuan, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.77% [3]. Despite the overall downward pressure on the dairy industry currently, Junlebao has shown strong anti-cyclical capabilities relying on its channel advantages and product differentiation strategy in the low-temperature milk segment.

are the core driver for Junlebao’s counter-trend growth. The Yuexianhuo brand adopted two parallel paths in channel expansion: on one hand, leveraging the channel resources of the group’s original yogurt products “Chunxiang” and “Jianchun” to enter convenience store channels, accurately reaching young consumer groups in first-tier cities; on the other hand, fully utilizing the advantages of e-commerce channel layout, ranking first in the low-temperature fresh milk category on multiple platforms such as Tmall, Douyin, and JD.com [2]. This online-offline integrated channel strategy enabled Yuexianhuo to successfully transition from a regional brand to a national brand.

provide sustained growth momentum for Junlebao. According to industry research data, the low-temperature fresh milk market has a CAGR of 8% in the past five years, significantly higher than the 5% of room-temperature white milk [4]. In the first quarter of 2025, the sales of low-temperature fresh milk increased by 2.51% year-on-year, while the sales of room-temperature pure milk and room-temperature yogurt decreased by 13.44% and 18.45% year-on-year respectively [5]. Consumers’ demand for dairy products is shifting from “quantity” to “quality”, paying more attention to nutritional components, functionality, and quality; this consumption upgrade trend continues to support the penetration rate of the low-temperature milk market.

Junlebao’s omni-channel layout in the low-temperature milk segment has built a significant competitive barrier. Through the advantages of self-owned pasture milk sources, the company has achieved full-chain cost control from production to sales, providing solid support for front-end market competitiveness.

will become an important engine for Junlebao’s revenue growth in 2026.

is an important new growth driver for Junlebao. In the first half of 2025, the proportion of Junlebao’s B-side revenue increased from 12% in the same period of 2024 to , nearly doubling [5]. The B-side market is represented by new consumption scenarios such as tea drinks, coffee, and baking, with a demand scale of nearly 100 billion yuan, but 70%-80% of the share is still occupied by imported dairy enterprises [6]. By strengthening cooperation with B-side customers, Junlebao is expected to achieve domestic substitution and accelerate market expansion.

provides a new performance growth point for Junlebao. According to statistics, the market size of children’s milk powder is expected to exceed 40-50 billion yuan in 2025 [7]. Junlebao’s “Little Luban” brand occupies an important position in the children’s milk powder market; as consumers pay more attention to nutritional supplements for all age groups, children’s milk powder will become an important growth pole for the company’s milk powder business.

However,

cannot be ignored. Affected by the decline in the number of new-born population, the market size of the infant formula food industry is expected to drop from 163.526 billion yuan in 2024 to 112.885 billion yuan in 2028, with a CAGR of -8.85% [8]. At the same time, the industry generally faces the dilemma of continuously falling milk prices; in the second quarter of 2025, the average price of raw milk was only 3.04 yuan/kg, far below the break-even line of 3.5 yuan/kg for most pastures [5].

Overall, Junlebao has strong revenue growth drivers in 2026, with main supporting factors including:

bringing structural growth opportunities, rapid expansion of B-side business optimizing the revenue structure, and incremental contributions from the children’s milk powder segment market. However, achieving the 50 billion yuan sales target still faces great challenges, requiring continuous optimization of the cost structure at the bottom of the industry cycle, strengthening brand high-end transformation, and effectively controlling product quality risks.

Junlebao’s core competitiveness lies in its layout advantages in the low-temperature whole industry chain and its market position established through differentiated channel strategies. If it can successfully grasp the consumption upgrade trend of low-temperature milk, continue to deepen B-side market penetration, and maintain investment in product innovation and quality control, the company is expected to achieve steady revenue growth in 2026.

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[1] 16th China Dairy Conference Top 20 Dairy Forum & 2025 China Dairy Exhibition Official Information

[2] Tianxia Wangshang - “One out of every two bottles sold is it!” A veteran enterprise incubates a new brand to top the list in six years (2025/04/10)

[3] International Finance News - Summary of Revenue of Leading Dairy Enterprises

[4] 2025 China Dairy Industry White Paper - Shunweirenhe Enterprise Consulting

[5] Tencent News - Competing for “Top Spot”, Snatching B-side Market: Dairy Enterprises’ Involution Reaches New Heights (2025/09/12)

[6] Speech by Li Shengli, Chief Scientist of the National Dairy Cow Industry Technology System

[7] China Food Safety Network - 2024 China Children’s Milk Powder Market Development Trend Analysis Report

[8] Leadleo Research Institute - 2025 China Infant Formula Food Industry Overview