Timeline of Commercialization in the Humanoid Robot Industry and Outlook for the 2026 Milestone

According to public reports, leading enterprises have deployed humanoid robots in multiple vertical scenarios: Unitree (Yushu Technology) has delivered thousands of units in automotive manufacturing, logistics and other scenarios, is expected to ship nearly 2,000 humanoid robots in 2025 and plans to expand production capacity through China’s capital market [1]. Meanwhile, Figure AI’s partnership pilot with BMW and Boston Dynamics’ strategic layout indicate that industrial clients are initiating evaluations of the ‘trial production - small-batch deployment - gradual scaling’ path for humanoid robots. These implemented cases show that current commercialization is still advancing with ‘customization + scenario leadership’ and has not yet reached large-scale assembly line replication, but already has the technical and capital foundation to shift from pilot to scale deployment.

According to Goldman Sachs’ analysis, the manufacturing cost of humanoid robots has dropped by about 40% in one year, far exceeding previous expectations [2]. Cost reduction mainly comes from modularization of actuator kits, power management and perception systems, as well as procurement bargaining power brought by supply chain scale. If this declining trend continues in 2026, even if mass production still faces challenges, the ex-factory price of the whole machine is expected to approach the ‘enterprise-acceptable’ range (currently some products are priced within several hundred thousand RMB). On the technical side, there are already voices pointing out that 2026 will witness a higher level of ‘Autonomy + Embodiment’, and multiple OEMs (such as BMW and Figure) expect to deploy humanoid robots in automation and collaborative tasks, exploring the differentiated value of using ‘humanoid form to solve unstructured environments’ rather than replacing traditional industrial robots [3].

1. Controllable Cost and Modular Manufacturing
   : Cost reduction provides the basis for ‘unit economics’; if core joints, batteries and perception radar modules are further generalized, it is expected to provide a path for ‘10,000-unit level’ deliveries before 2026.
2. Clear Enterprise Demand
   : Currently, enterprises adopt humanoid robots mainly in scenarios requiring human collaboration and automated emergency handling (maintenance, handling, logistics supply). If these deployments can be standardized into ‘robot-as-a-service’ packages and bundled with software subscription models in 2026, the commercialization pace will accelerate significantly.
3. Capital and Policy Promotion
   : Institutions like Morgan Stanley predict that the humanoid robot market size could reach $5 trillion by 2050; huge long-term expectations have already attracted capital and policy windows from various countries to jointly promote the optimization of standards, ethics and testing environments in this track [4]. If a closed loop of ‘industry standards - pilot implementation - scale replication’ is formed before 2026, the trust of capital and customers will be further enhanced.

If balanced breakthroughs can be achieved in the following three aspects in 2026, the humanoid robot industry can enter the ‘rapid growth phase’: ① System capabilities with high stability and maintainability to meet industrial on-site needs; ② Total cost of ownership (including deployment and maintenance) approaching or lower than the existing combination of labor + collaborative robots; ③ Service ecosystem (e.g., data platforms, remote operation and maintenance, industry customization) having breakthrough operational efficiency. Otherwise, it will still face the cold start risk of ‘over-reliance on laboratory environments and value lower than investment costs’. In addition, regulatory and safety compliance need to be promoted simultaneously to eliminate enterprise concerns.

In the short term, 2026 can be regarded as a key window for ‘pilot validation and partial scaling’: if manufacturers can continue to compress costs, verify ROI in high-frequency applications like logistics/automotive, and build targeted operation and service systems, they are expected to transition from ‘demonstrative commercialization’ to ‘batch deployment’ in the next two to three years. It is recommended to focus on leading enterprises with supply chain control, software platform capabilities and existing specific industry collaborations (such as those with orders and factory deployments), while carefully tracking cost curves and regulatory trends. Once these factors form synergy before 2026, the humanoid robot industry is expected to enter the ‘rapid growth’ track.

[1] Yahoo Finance Hong Kong - “China’s Version of Boston Dynamics: Yushu Technology Passes IPO Guidance, Expected to Become a STAR Market Robot Leader in 2026” (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/132天创纪录-中國版波士頓動力-宇樹科技ipo輔導通關-2026年有望成科創板機器人龍頭-023004789.html)
[2] Forbes - “Giving AI A Body: Why Robots Are Evolving So Quickly Today” (https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2025/12/08/giving-ai-a-body-why-robots-are-evolving-so-quickly-today/)
[3] Forbes - “Why AI Era Job Descriptions Will Prioritize Cognition Over Tasks” (https://www.forbes.com/councils/forbestechcouncil/2025/12/08/why-ai-era-job-descriptions-will-prioritize-cognition-over-tasks/)
[4] Wall Street Journal Chinese Edition - “Tesla Doubles Down on AI: What’s the Outlook for 2026?” (https://cn.wsj.com/articles/特斯拉加碼押注ai-2026年前景几何-8653c45a)