Analysis of the Interaction Between Commercialization Progress of Controlled Nuclear Fusion and Valuation of Concept Stocks

Recently, the “controlled nuclear fusion” sector has become active again, mainly due to the resonance of two internal and external logics: On one hand, the capital market’s expectations for order-driven growth in core materials (high-temperature superconducting tapes, vacuum equipment, etc.) and system integration links are continuously increasing. For example, upstream “shovel-selling” enterprises like Yongding and Guoguang are regarded as direct beneficiaries that are gradually entering the delivery phase from engineering demonstration reactors (such as CRAFT, BEST, CFETR); On the other hand, policy and international events have strengthened industry imagination—domestic production rate of global key devices has reached 96%, and the “15th Five-Year Plan” includes fusion as a new economic growth point. These factors combined form a short-term catalyst for capital to revalue the sector. [1][2][3]

1. Short-term Valuation: Dominated by Concept and Capital Games
   
   The sector’s limit-up and rapid capital rotation reflect short-term speculation triggered by “concept + events”: For example, CNNC Technology’s recent limit-up stemmed from the renewed activity of the nuclear fusion concept, with a significant increase in trading volume, indicating that the market uses technological breakthroughs and overseas acquisition news as premium bases; however, this sentiment-driven trend often leads to a surge in valuation multiples and concentrated risks. The record gains do not come from performance paths or cash flows, but from the superposition of market imagination of “ultimate energy”, which is prone to rapid retracement when policy or technology progress falls short of expectations. [2][3]

2. Mid-term Valuation: Value Determined by Orders and Technical Barriers
   
   Judgment from CITIC Construction Investment points out that the industry’s valuation is shifting from “thematic narrative” to “industrial trend”. The core logic is that enterprises that obtain supply chain qualifications for fusion demonstration reactors can switch from the P/E ratio logic to the valuation method of “order book value + market share”. [3] This means that leading enterprises in sub-sectors such as materials, power supplies, and cryogenics that have technical accumulation, mass production capabilities, and have entered demonstration reactor projects have stronger long-term value bearing capacity.

1. Short-term: Dominated by “news-driven + capital sentiment” games.
   Once the sector has positive policy news, overseas acquisition events (such as the acquisition of TAE by DJT) or demonstration reactor milestones, it will experience a rapid rise, but this rise lacks performance support and has limited valuation elasticity, belonging to the typical “concept speculation” category. Short-term funds are prone to violent fluctuations after chasing highs. [2][3]
2. Mid-to-long term: Core track companies have structural opportunities.
   Although controlled nuclear fusion is a long cycle (commercialization target is around 2040~2050), the upstream “shovel-selling” industrial chain (high-temperature superconductivity, special alloys, power supplies, cryogenic systems) is gradually realizing performance as demonstration reactor and engineering orders are landed. Once the supply chain enters the stable delivery stage, those that win key projects (such as CFETR/BEST) can form structural growth with high barriers, and valuation will also shift from imagination to the substantive judgment of “orders + profits”. [1][3]

• Focus on leading enterprises with real orders and technical barriers
  (such as core superconducting material, vacuum system, and power system suppliers), strictly distinguish between “business-supported” and “pure concept speculation”, and avoid blindly chasing hotspots.
• Key milestone tracking
  : Demonstration reactor project acceptance, mass production stability of superconducting materials, supply chain qualifications for foreign projects, etc. Re-evaluate immediately when negative events occur.
• Valuation management
  : For stocks with a current PE ratio above 40 times (such as CNNC Technology) and whose core growth has not yet been substantially realized, higher stop-profit/stop-loss plans should be set, and core positions should be reserved for later entrants.
• **Long-term allocation needs to wait for “order verification”: If enterprises can successively disclose demonstration reactor supply contracts, enter overseas projects, or achieve growth in related business revenue within 6-12 months, then consider gradually increasing positions.

The controlled nuclear fusion concept will still be periodically active under the resonance of capital sentiment and policies, but the continuous expansion of valuation needs to be based on real orders and technological breakthroughs. If investors can distinguish between upstream leaders with “substantial delivery expectations” and targets that “rely only on concept speculation”, and stop losses in time when major milestones fall short of expectations, the sector has long-term allocation value; otherwise, it is more suitable to look for short-term arbitrage opportunities driven by events.

[0] Broker API Data (CNNC Technology 000777.SZ Real-time Quotes, Company Overview and Financial Analysis, 2025-12-27)
[1] “Controlled Nuclear Fusion Track Core Targets Sorting”, Dongcai Wealth Channel, 2025-12-26, https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20251226073716057138490
[2] “Controlled Nuclear Fusion Concept Repeatedly Active, CNNC Technology Hits Limit-up”, Jiemian News, https://www.jiemian.com/article/13808105.html
[3] “CITIC Construction Investment: Controlled Nuclear Fusion Industry Investment Logic is Shifting from Thematic Narrative to Industrial Trend”, Current News, https://shishixinwen.news/news/sina/live/4577199