Non-ferrous Metals In-depth Analysis: Profit Drivers and Valuation Assessment of Zijin Mining and CMOC Group

On December 27, 2025, the LME copper price broke through the $12,000/ton mark for the first time, reaching an all-time high of $12,282 per ton [2], with an annual increase of about 37-40%, the largest annual gain since 2009 [1][2]. Citigroup predicts that copper prices will rise to $13,000/ton in early 2026 and challenge $15,000 in the second quarter [2].

1. Supply Disruptions
   : Production accidents occurred at multiple large mines worldwide (Kamoa-Kakula flood in Congo, tunnel collapse in Chile, Grasberg mudslide in Indonesia) [4]
2. Tariff Disturbances
   : The market expects the U.S. may impose tariffs on refined copper, triggering hoarding behavior; refined copper inflows into the U.S. increased by about 650,000 tons this year [2]
3. Structural Demand
   : Long-term demand growth driven by artificial intelligence, data centers, grid expansion, and energy transition [2][4]. Bloomberg notes that the global economy is shifting from “fossil fuel-based” to “metal technology as the core driver” [4]

Gold prices rose by about 60% in 2025, and silver prices surged by over 120% [3], providing strong profit support for Zijin Mining’s gold business.

Indicator	Value
Current Stock Price	$33.53 (+4.68%) [0]
Annual Increase	+120.88% [0]
3-Year Increase	+233.63% [0]
5-Year Increase	+255.19% [0]
Market Capitalization	$889.65B [0]
P/E Ratio	19.51x [0]
P/B Ratio	5.30x [0]
ROE	30.60% [0]
Net Profit Margin	13.91% [0]

• Kamoa-Kakula copper mine’s production guidance for 2026/2027 is 380-420k tons and 500-540k tons respectively [6]
• Macquarie raised the company’s 2025-2027 profit forecast by 20%/61%/35%, gold price forecast by 2%/22%/35%, and copper price forecast by 2%/13%/0% [6]
• Target price raised by 75% to HK$40 (H-share), corresponding to a forecast P/E ratio of 9.6x, implying about a 50% upside potential in the stock price [6]

Indicator	Value
Current Stock Price	$19.75 (+5.61%) [0]
Annual Increase	+200.15% [0]
3-Year Increase	+327.49% [0]
5-Year Increase	+231.93% [0]
Market Capitalization	$424.61B [0]
P/E Ratio	21.52x [0]
P/B Ratio	5.41x [0]
ROE	26.48% [0]
Net Profit Margin	9.59% [0]

• A globally important copper and cobalt producer, deeply benefiting from the development of new energy and electric vehicle industries
• The 200.15% annual increase far exceeds Zijin Mining’s 120.88%, reflecting the market’s high growth premium for new energy metals [0]

• Deutsche Bank warns that major miners’ production may decline by 3% in 2025, with further decline risks in 2026 [1]
• LME copper inventory has dropped by nearly 40% since the beginning of the year, with 40% already booked for pickup [2]
• Sustained inventory decline indicates worsening supply tightness

• AI development and data center construction require large amounts of copper materials [4]
• Global energy transition and electrification process accelerating [4]
• Structural demand changes provide long-term support for metal prices

• China Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Association announced that it will strictly restrict new copper smelting capacity and plans to shut down about 2 million tons of illegally built copper smelting capacity [5]
• Morgan Stanley believes that if this policy is implemented, it will be beneficial to copper prices and major copper producers [5]

• Benefiting from both gold’s safe-haven demand and copper’s industrial demand; business diversification reduces single commodity volatility risk
• ROE of up to 30.60% shows excellent asset utilization efficiency [0]
• Net profit margin of 13.91% is significantly higher than CMOC Group’s 9.59% [0]

• Cobalt, as a key battery material, has demand growth highly correlated with the global electrification trend
• 2025 increase of 200.15% reflects high growth premium of new energy metals [0]
• Valuation level (P/E 21.52x) is higher than Zijin Mining’s (P/E 19.51x) [0], reflecting growth premium

• Zijin Mining’s current P/E is 19.51x; Macquarie’s target price corresponds to a 2025 P/E of 9.6x [6]. Considering the 61% upward revision of profit expectations for the next 3 years (2026), current valuation has not fully reflected profit growth
• CMOC Group’s current P/E is 21.52x [0]; considering the high growth premium of new energy metals, valuation is at the upper edge of the reasonable range

• If copper prices remain above $12,000/ton, current valuation is reasonable
• If copper prices fall below $10,000/ton, valuation faces pressure
• Need to pay attention to the fulfillment of 2026 production guidance

• Currently in the “emotional peak at the end of a bull market” phase [3]
• Both companies’ P/B ratios exceed 5x, at historical high levels [0]
• Daily volatility rising (Zijin Mining: 2.32%, CMOC Group: 2.83%) [0]

• Goldman Sachs warns that recent prices mainly reflect bets on future supply tightening, not current actual supply and demand [1]
• China, as the world’s largest copper consumer (accounting for about 50%), has seen a recent decline in industrial usage [1]
• Some investment banks believe the current uptrend is “overheated” [1]

• Excessive annual increase (Zijin Mining:120%, CMOC Group:200%) [0]
• Technical indicators show rising volatility, daily volatility exceeding 2% [0]
• The “emotional peak at the end of a bull market” phase is prone to trigger profit-taking [3]

• China, as the world’s largest copper consumer (about50%), has seen a recent decline in industrial usage [1]
• Goldman Sachs believes current prices mainly reflect bets on future supply tightening, not current actual supply and demand [1]
• If China’s demand remains weak, it may suppress price upside potential

• U.S. tariff policy uncertainty remains, which may affect global trade flows [2]
• Both companies have mineral resources in Africa; need to pay attention to geopolitical risks
• There is uncertainty about the implementation intensity of China’s capacity policy

• Both companies’ P/B ratios exceed5x, at historical high levels [0]
• If commodity prices fall, high valuations face adjustment pressure

• Structural supply-demand gap supports copper prices to remain high [1][2]
• Copper prices are expected to challenge $13,000-$15,000/ton in2026 [2]
• Long-term demand growth driven by AI and energy transition has high certainty [4]

• China’s policy restricting new copper smelting capacity will improve the industry’s supply-demand pattern [5]
• Morgan Stanley believes that if this policy is implemented, it will benefit major copper producers [5]

• Zijin Mining’s ROE reaches30.60%, CMOC Group’s ROE reaches 26.48% [0]
• Macquarie significantly raised Zijin Mining’s profit forecast and target price [6]
• 2026 production guidance shows growth potential [6]

• Based on future profit growth, Zijin Mining’s valuation still has upside potential
• If copper prices remain high, current valuations will gradually be digested by profit growth

• Technical correction risk rising
• Volatility may further increase
• Not suitable to chase highs; need to be alert to short-term profit-taking pressure

• Strong fundamental support, structural supply-demand gap exists
• Long-term demand growth has high certainty
• Policy support remains strong

As of December27,2025, China’s non-ferrous metals sector has seen a strong rise, with both Zijin Mining (601899) and CMOC Group (603993) hitting all-time highs in their stock prices [0]. The LME copper price broke through $12,000/ton for the first time to a record high, with an annual increase of about37-40% [1][2].

• Gold and copper dual-drive; business diversification reduces single commodity volatility risk
• Kamoa-Kakula copper mine’s 2026/2027 production guidance is380-420k tons and500-540k tons respectively [6]
• Macquarie raised 2025-2027 profit forecast by 20%/61%/35% [6]
• ROE up to 30.60%, net profit margin of13.91% [0]

• Globally important copper and cobalt producer, deeply benefiting from new energy industry development
• 2025 increase of 200.15% reflects high growth premium of new energy metals [0]
• ROE reaches26.48% [0]

• Structural supply-demand gap (major miners’ production may decline by3% in 2025, LME copper inventory down nearly 40%) [1][2]
• Long-term demand growth certainty (AI, data centers, energy transition) [4]
• Policy support (China restricts new copper smelting capacity) [5]
• Strong profitability (ROE>25%) [0]

• Excessive short-term increase, technical correction risk rising
• China’s demand declined recently; Goldman Sachs believes the uptrend is “overheated” [1]
• Valuation at historical high range (P/B>5x) [0]

• Current P/E:19.51x; Macquarie’s target price corresponds to 2025 P/E:9.6x [6]
• Considering61% upward revision of profit expectations for next3 years (2026), current valuation not fully reflecting profit growth
• Implied stock price still has about50% upside to target price [6]

• Current P/E:21.52x, slightly higher than Zijin Mining [0]
• Considering high growth premium of new energy metals, valuation at upper edge of reasonable range
• Annual increase of200% has fully reflected cobalt price rise expectations

1. Price Sensitivity Analysis
   : Calculate EPS elasticity to copper and gold price changes
2. Reserve Value Reassessment
   : Reassess mineral resource value based on current metal prices
3. Growth Discounting
   : Discount future production growth to current valuation

• If copper prices remain above $12,000/ton, current valuation is reasonable
• If copper prices fall below $10,000/ton, valuation faces pressure
• Need to pay attention to fulfillment of2026 production guidance
• Focus on China’s demand recovery

Suitable for medium to long-term allocation, but not suitable to chase highs. It is recommended to adopt a fixed investment or phased buying strategy, focus on copper price trends and company production guidance fulfillment, set stop-loss levels, and control downside risks.

1. Data Timeliness
   : This analysis is based on data as of December27,2025; market conditions may change rapidly
2. Price Volatility Risk
   : Commodity prices are affected by multiple factors and are highly volatile
3. Policy Risk
   : There is uncertainty about China’s capacity policy and U.S. tariff policy
4. Geopolitical Risk
   : Both companies have mineral resources in Africa; need to pay attention to geopolitical risks
5. Liquidity Risk
   : Excessive short-term increase may lead to liquidity tightening