2025 U.S. Holiday Retail Sales: Consumer Resilience Amid Shortened Season

This analysis is based on the CNBC “Squawk Box” segment featuring Michael Zakkour of 5 New Digital on December 26, 2025, discussing 2025 U.S. holiday retail sales data [Event Source]. The key context is a shortened holiday shopping season due to Thanksgiving falling on November 27, the latest possible date, which reduced the shopping window between Thanksgiving and Christmas by approximately 6 days [0].

Despite this compression, preliminary data reveals strong holiday performance:

• Black Friday online sales hit a record $11.8 billion, up 9.1% YoY, with e-commerce growth (10.4% YoY) outpacing in-store sales growth (1.7% YoY) [1].
• Cyber Monday online sales reached $14.25 billion, up 7.1% YoY, with buy now/pay later (BNPL) usage hitting a record $1.03 billion [2].
• The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts November–December 2025 holiday sales to exceed $1 trillion for the first time, representing 3.7–4.2% YoY growth [3].

Consumer behavior played a critical role in offsetting the shortened season: a record 202.9 million shoppers (16 million more than forecast) shopped between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, leveraging promotions, shopping early, and using BNPL to spread costs [2]. Michael Zakkour emphasized this consumer resilience as a key takeaway [Event Source].

1. Digital Transformation Accelerates
   : The gap between e-commerce and in-store sales growth widened further, continuing a long-term trend. E-commerce drove much of the 2025 holiday success, indicating sustained consumer preference for online shopping channels [1][2].
2. Consumer Savviness Mitigates Seasonal Constraints
   : Shoppers adapted to the shortened window by planning early and using flexible payment options like BNPL, demonstrating financial acumen amid inflationary pressures [2].
3. Market Size Reaches Milestone
   : The NRF’s $1 trillion forecast reflects nominal growth and modest real growth after inflation adjustment, signaling the holiday retail market’s enduring robustness [3].

• Retail Sector Opportunities
  : Digital-first retailers (e.g., Amazon) and omnichannel players (e.g., Walmart) are well-positioned to benefit from strong e-commerce results, which may boost their quarterly earnings [1][3].
• Brick-and-Mortar Risks
  : Slower in-store sales growth could pose challenges for traditional physical retailers, highlighting the need for continued omnichannel adaptation [1].
• Economic Policy Context
  : Resilient consumer spending may influence the Federal Reserve’s 2026 interest rate decisions, as it reflects both consumer confidence and modest real growth amid inflation [1][2].

• The 2025 holiday shopping season was shortened by ~6 days due to a late Thanksgiving (November 27) [0].
• Preliminary sales data shows record online sales on Black Friday ($11.8B) and Cyber Monday ($14.25B), with BNPL usage also hitting a record on Cyber Monday [1][2].
• The NRF forecasts $1 trillion in holiday retail sales for 2025, with 3.7–4.2% YoY growth [3].
• Consumer resilience was driven by savvy behavior (early shopping, promotions, BNPL) offsetting the shortened season [2].
• Full November–December sales data will be released in January 2026, and a detailed transcript of Zakkour’s “Squawk Box” appearance is unavailable, creating information gaps [1][2].