Hong Kong Hot Stock Analysis: XPeng Inc.-W (09868.HK)

XPeng Inc.-W (09868.HK) belongs to the consumer cyclical industry/automobile manufacturing sector [0]. Its current share price is approximately HK$77-78 (as of December 22, 2025) [4]. It has become a hot stock mainly driven by three catalysts: First, the L3 autonomous driving road test license was issued in Guangzhou and regular testing was launched, while it plans to mass-produce the second-generation VLA and Robotaxi models with L4-level capabilities in the first quarter of 2026 [1][2][3]; Second, it signed a cooperation agreement with Malaysian auto parts manufacturer EPMB to start production of G6 and X9 models in March and May 2026 respectively, accelerating its international production layout [5]; Third, Guangzhou City plans to add 300 million yuan in new car purchase subsidies, benefiting the new energy vehicle industry as a whole [1].

From the perspective of price and trading volume, XPeng Inc.-W has a year-to-date return of 64.67% and a 1-year return of 58.74% [4]; it had a range decline of over 34% since November 12, but rebounded on December 19 with an intraday increase of about 6% [1]; the trading volume on that day was 11,406,926 shares, lower than the average volume of 20,488,382 shares [4].

1. Synergistic Effect of Technological Breakthroughs and International Layout
   : Progress in L3/L4 autonomous driving technology demonstrates XPeng’s leading edge in intelligent driving, while the Malaysian production layout expands into emerging markets, and the two synergistically enhance market confidence in its long-term growth potential [1][2][5].
2. Contradiction Between Market Expectations and Profit Pressure
   : Although analysts’ average target price for XPeng Inc.-W reaches HK$115.55 and they are optimistic about its technology and growth prospects [4], the loss attributable to shareholders in the mid-term of 2025 expanded by 57% year-on-year to 1.1418 billion yuan [3], reflecting the contradiction between market expectations for long-term value and the reality of short-term profitability deficiencies.

• Technological Leading Edge
  : Continuous breakthroughs and implementation in intelligent driving are expected to strengthen its market competitiveness [2].
• International Expansion
  : The Malaysian production layout will help it enter Southeast Asian emerging markets and expand market share [5].
• Policy Benefits
  : Guangzhou City’s new car purchase subsidy policy directly benefits XPeng as a local enterprise [1].

• Profit Risk
  : Mid-term losses expanded, the company is still in a loss state, and profitability needs to be improved [3].
• Stock Price Volatility
  : A previous range decline of 34% occurred, with high stock price volatility [1].
• Industry Competition
  : The new energy vehicle market is highly competitive, requiring continuous innovation to maintain a leading position.

• Price Range
  : The 52-week price range is HK$44.000 (lowest) - HK$110.800 (highest) [4], and the current share price is approximately HK$77-78, which is in the upper middle position.
• Technical Level
  : Attention should be paid to whether it can break through the previous high of HK$110.800 and the lower support level of HK$44.000 [4].
• Market Sentiment
  : Analysts are optimistic about its intelligent driving technology and future growth potential [2][4], but profit pressure and stock price volatility risks need to be noted.