Analysis of the Sustainability and Investment Value of Guodian Power's Transformation from a Thermal Power Cyclical Stock to a Value Stock

Guodian Power (600795.SS) is transforming from a traditional thermal power cyclical stock to a value stock, and this process has multiple supporting factors. Traditional thermal power has obvious cyclical properties due to coal price fluctuations and unstable profitability, while Guodian Power has reduced cyclical fluctuations through multiple measures:

1. Positive Changes in 2024
   :
   • Decline in coal costs: The unit price of standard coal input into furnaces decreased by 12.79 yuan/ton year-on-year to 922.17 yuan/ton, and the proportion of long-term contract coal reached 94%, effectively stabilizing procurement costs [3].
   • Dividend commitment: Formulated a cash dividend plan for 2025-2027; the proposed cash dividend per share for 2024 is 0.20 yuan (including tax), accounting for 36.28% of net profit attributable to parent company shareholders [1][3].
   • Management optimization: The major shareholder replaced the chairman, bringing positive changes at the management level [2].

2. Policy and Market Mechanism Support
   :
   The implementation of the capacity electricity price mechanism has improved the profit structure of thermal power and guaranteed part of the stable profit; the promotion of auxiliary service income has tapped the flexible value of thermal power and enhanced profit stability [2].

3. Future Development Highlights
   :
   • Expansion of Dadu River Hydropower Station: Planned to put into operation 1.365 million kilowatts in 2025 and 2.155 million kilowatts in 2026, which will increase the profit contribution of hydropower business [3].
   • Green power development: Planned to put into operation 6.4159 million kilowatts of new energy in 2025, reducing dependence on traditional thermal power [3].
   • Major shareholder asset injection: The National Energy Group has promised to take Guodian Power as an integration platform for conventional energy power generation business and gradually inject relevant assets within 5 years [1].

1. Clear Transformation Logic
   : The core of transforming from a cyclical stock to a value stock lies in improving profit stability. Guodian Power has formed a clear transformation path through long-term contract coal to stabilize costs, capacity electricity price mechanism to guarantee profits, and new energy business to diversify risks.

2. Strong Support from Major Shareholders
   : The asset injection commitment from the National Energy Group provides a solid foundation for the company’s long-term growth, showing the major shareholder’s recognition of Guodian Power’s platform value.

3. Favorable Industry Trends
   : The thermal power industry is moving from cyclical to value, with improved profit stability and enhanced dividend capacity. As a leading enterprise in the industry, Guodian Power is expected to fully benefit from this trend [5].

• The sustainability of the transformation is affected by coal price trends; if coal prices rebound sharply, it will put pressure on the profitability of thermal power business [5].
• The specific timing and scale of asset injection have not been clarified, and there is certain uncertainty [1].
• Green power development faces challenges in new energy consumption, subsidy policies, etc. [3].
• The transformation process is affected by macroeconomic impacts and power market competition pressures [5].

• The promotion of the capacity electricity price mechanism will further enhance the profit stability of thermal power business [2].
• The expansion of Dadu River Hydropower Station and green power development will continuously improve the company’s business structure and profit quality [3].
• Asset injection by major shareholders will increase the company’s installed capacity and profit space [1].

Guodian Power has a clear direction of transforming from a thermal power cyclical stock to a value stock; the positive changes in 2024 and future development plans provide strong support for the transformation. Through cost control, mechanism innovation, business diversification, and major shareholder support, the company gradually improves profit stability and dividend capacity.

However, there are still uncertainties in the transformation process; it is necessary to closely monitor coal price trends, policy changes, asset injection progress, and new energy development. Professional institutions believe that the company has advantages in thermal power costs, rapid development of hydropower, wind power, and solar power, and maintain a “Buy” rating [2].