Analysis of Investors' Offensive and Defensive Balance Strategies During Bull-Bear Transition Phases

1. Core Theme and Strategy Verification
   : The 15 suggestions shared by blogger ‘61’ at the Snowball Carnival focus on three major themes: bull-bear transition, asset allocation, and diversified investment, emphasizing margin of safety and discipline. This viewpoint is highly consistent with traditional investment theories—for example, the Merrill Lynch Clock and stock-bond balance strategy both take risk control during bull-bear transitions as the core [0].
2. Market Background and Index Performance
   : At the time of the event (2025-12-22 UTC+8), the Shanghai Composite Index (000001) closed at 3917.36 points, showing a slight upward trend compared to 10 days ago, reflecting that the market is in a subtle phase of potential bull-bear transition [0].
3. ETF Target Relevance
   : Although the three specific ETFs mentioned by the blogger could not be directly verified, based on the liquidity and representativeness of the A-share market, the most likely targets are CSI 300 ETF (510300), CSI 500 ETF (510500), and SSE 50 ETF (510050). These three ETFs cover different market capitalization dimensions and can achieve basic diversified allocation [0].

1. Essence of Offensive and Defensive Balance
   : The offensive and defensive balance during the bull-bear transition phase is not simply ‘half offense and half defense’, but reducing single-market risk through diversified allocation of asset classes. For example, combining broad-based ETFs, bond funds, and cash assets can both retain upside return space and enhance downside risk resistance [0].
2. Importance of Discipline
   : During the transition phase with large market sentiment fluctuations, investors are prone to the mistake of chasing ups and selling downs. The disciplined execution emphasized by the blogger (such as regular rebalancing and adhering to margin of safety) is the key to avoiding emotional interference and achieving long-term returns [0].
3. Implementation Path of Diversification
   : Diversifying individual stock risks can be effectively achieved by allocating ETFs of different styles (such as large-cap, mid-small-cap, and industry themes). Taking the three guessed targets as examples: SSE 50 ETF (510050) focuses on blue-chip stocks, CSI 500 ETF (510500) covers growth stocks, and CSI 300 ETF (510300) combines the characteristics of both, forming a basic style-diversified portfolio [0].

1. Risk Points
   : Market volatility is usually high during the bull-bear transition phase. If investors fail to strictly implement allocation discipline, they may suffer losses due to emotional decisions; at the same time, ETF tracking errors and liquidity risks need to be paid attention to [0].
2. Opportunity Window
   : The transition phase is often accompanied by valuation repair and style switching. Through disciplined rebalancing operations, high-quality assets can be increased in low-valuation intervals, laying a foundation for long-term returns [0].

During the bull-bear transition phase, investors should follow the following principles: 1) Take diversified allocation as the core (such as stock-bond balance, portfolios of ETFs with different styles); 2) Adhere to margin of safety and disciplined execution (such as regular rebalancing, avoiding excessive chasing of highs); 3) Formulate strategies based on market data and long-term goals. It should be noted that this analysis does not directly verify the specific 15 suggestions mentioned by the blogger, but only expands based on his core viewpoints and market common sense [0].