VanEck CEO Jan Van Eck's "AI Bubble Already Popped" Statement & Market Reactions

On December 23, 2025, after U.S. stock market close (19:15:01 EST), VanEck CEO Jan Van Eck appeared on Fox Business Network’s The Claman Countdown and claimed the “AI bubble already popped,” while noting companies are missing large macro trends [1]. The full interview transcript was unavailable due to technical limitations, leaving critical context (e.g., specific macro trends, supporting evidence) unknown.

Short-term market reactions on December 24 (the first trading day post-event) were mixed:

• NVIDIA (NVDA), a leading AI chip maker and top holding (16.91%) in VanEck’s Semiconductor ETF (SMH), declined 0.27% [0][2].
• Microsoft (MSFT), a major AI software player with OpenAI partnerships, rose 0.44%, outperforming the broader market [0].
• VanEck’s SMH ETF, focused on AI infrastructure, increased 0.25%, roughly in line with the S&P 500’s 0.28% gain [0].

This muted reaction is likely due to reduced holiday Eve trading volume (SMH volume was 788,163 shares on December 24 vs. 3.54M on December 23 [0]) and the lack of detailed context from the interview. Van Eck’s claim contradicts recent analyst consensus: Gabelli Funds stated AI isn’t a bubble (not valuation or earnings-driven) in mid-December [3], while “Big Short” trader Danny Moses warned of an AI bubble but didn’t declare it popped [4].

1. Muted Short-Term Market Response
   : Holiday Eve trading conditions likely dampened immediate investor reaction, limiting the significance of December 24 price movements.
2. Conflicting Analyst Perspectives
   : Van Eck’s bubble claim contrasts with other market experts, highlighting ongoing debate about AI sector valuation and sustainability.
3. Critical Context Gap
   : The absence of the full interview transcript prevents a complete assessment of Van Eck’s reasoning, including which macro trends he believes are being missed.

• AI Sector Correction Pressure
  : If Van Eck’s view gains traction with investors, AI-related stocks and ETFs could face downward pressure.
• Valuation Vulnerability
  : High P/E ratios for many AI leaders may make the sector susceptible to profit-taking.
• Unmet AI Expectations
  : Failure of companies to deliver on AI revenue promises could shift investor sentiment negatively.

• Monitoring ETF Flows
  : Tracking investor demand for AI-related funds (like SMH) in the coming weeks may signal emerging sentiment shifts.
• Earnings Guidance Clarity
  : Upcoming 2026 AI spending guidance from AI companies could resolve uncertainty around sector growth.
• VanEck’s Portfolio Actions
  : Additional public statements or portfolio adjustments by VanEck may provide clarity on the firm’s AI sector positioning.

This analysis centers on VanEck CEO Jan Van Eck’s December 23, 2025, claim that the AI bubble has already popped, made on Fox Business’ The Claman Countdown. Short-term market reactions on December 24 were mixed, with NVDA declining 0.27% and SMH rising 0.25% (in line with the S&P 500). The lack of the full interview transcript creates a critical context gap, while conflicting analyst views highlight ongoing sector debate. Investors should monitor AI company earnings guidance, VanEck’s subsequent statements, and AI ETF flows to gain further clarity on the sector’s trajectory.