Analysis of the Impact of Hainan Free Trade Port Customs Closure on Global Supply Chains and the A-Share Market

1. Global Supply Chain Restructuring
   : The customs closure of Hainan Free Trade Port is an important measure for China to respond to the “nearshoring” and “friendshoring” practices of Europe and the United States. Through the institutional framework of “first-line opening, second-line management, and free flow within the island” and the policy of “30% value-added in processing exempt from tariffs”, as of October 2025, 129 enterprises have been approved for trials, with tariffs exempted of approximately 860 million yuan, verifying the path of “policy dividends—capacity migration—revenue jump” [1][2][3]. As the geographical center between ASEAN and China, Hainan has the potential to become a regional supply chain hub and will reshape the Asia-Pacific value chain division system through the dual channels of “domestic sales of value-added processed products” and “duty-free transit trade” [10][11].

2. Structural Impact on the A-Share Market
   : After the customs closure on December 18, the A-share Hainan Free Trade Zone sector surged [12]. Main board stocks such as Hainan Development and Haiqi Group rose by over 33% in 3 trading days, while ChiNext stocks like Shennong Seed Industry and Kangzhi Pharmaceutical rose by over 38%, and the Hainan Free Trade Zone Index rose by over 7%. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for China’s GDP growth in 2026 to 4.8%, predicting 14% corporate profit growth in 2026 and a 38% stock market rise in 2027 [4][5][6]; since 2025, global ETFs investing in Chinese assets have seen a cumulative net inflow of 83.1 billion US dollars, with the technology sector receiving 9.5 billion US dollars in foreign inflows [6], driving optimistic market sentiment.

• Policy and Strategic Synergy
  : The Hainan customs closure aligns with China’s supply chain transformation strategy, promoting China’s upgrade from a “world factory” to an “innovation hub” in the Asia-Pacific value chain and restructuring the regional supply chain pattern [0].
• Foreign Investment and Sentiment Resonance
  : The optimistic forecasts from international investment banks like Goldman Sachs resonate with investors’ confidence in the consumer, AI sectors, and economic prospects at the Snowball Carnival (though there are cautious views, overall optimism prevails), driving the rise of the A-share Hainan sector [4][7][8][9].
• Long-Term Industry Support
  : The Hainan customs closure will attract the agglomeration of enterprises in high-end manufacturing, biopharmaceuticals, etc., providing long-term structural support for relevant industries in the A-share market [0][12].

• Supply Chain Hub Dividend
  : After Hainan becomes a “super converter”, enterprises related to high-end manufacturing and trade will benefit, and the A-share Hainan sector and industrial chain stocks will usher in growth opportunities [0][12].
• Foreign Investment Inflow Opportunities
  : Foreign capital continues to flow into sectors like technology and consumption in the A-share market, enhancing market valuation and liquidity [6].

• Policy Implementation Risk
  : The effect of the customs closure policy depends on regulatory coordination and execution capacity, and there may be efficiency attenuation [1].
• Homogenization Competition Risk
  : Hainan’s attraction of manufacturing enterprises may lead to homogenization competition with other regions, so industrial diversion needs to be警惕 [1].
• Market Volatility Risk
  : Despite optimistic sentiment, the stock market is still volatile, and investors need to pay attention to risk control [9].
• Economic Structure Challenge
  : China’s economy faces structural challenges such as a weak real estate industry, so policy responses need to be watched [5].

Through measures like “30% value-added in processing exempt from tariffs”, the Hainan Free Trade Port customs closure will restructure the Asia-Pacific supply chain pattern and become a hub connecting China and Southeast Asia. The optimistic forecasts from international investment banks like Goldman Sachs and the recovery of investor sentiment have driven the surge of the A-share Hainan sector, and the trend of foreign capital inflow continues. Overall, the Hainan customs closure brings long-term structural opportunities to China’s economy and the A-share market, but risks such as policy implementation and market volatility need to be watched.