Analysis of the Impact of Gold Tax Reform on China's Domestic Gold Market and Related Stocks

After the release of the new gold tax policy in November 2024, Shenzhen Shuibei, China’s largest gold jewelry wholesale market, canceled the price distinction labeling between ‘investment gold’ and ‘jewelry gold’. Reasons include the profit margin differentiation between members and non-members of the Shanghai Gold Exchange after the tax reform, and to avoid misleading consumers [1]. Combined with the global gold market context during the same period, gold prices rose by 27% in 2024 and exceeded $4400 per ounce by the end of 2025, mainly driven by geopolitical tensions, expectations of Fed interest rate cuts, and the central bank gold-buying spree (especially the People’s Bank of China’s 13 consecutive months of gold purchases) [1].

Canceling the price distinction between investment gold and jewelry gold simplifies the market pricing system, eliminates artificial price differences, helps resolve the profit differentiation issue among market participants after the tax reform, and reduces consumers’ cognitive confusion about different types of gold products. This adjustment may be a regulatory measure to standardize market order and promote fair competition.

Pricing standardization is expected to improve the transparency of China’s domestic gold market, helping investors to more clearly understand the actual value of gold products. However, the price discounts that investment gold usually enjoyed before may disappear due to the cancellation of the distinction, which may lead some investors to adjust their investment strategies. According to World Gold Council data, China’s gold investment demand grew in 2024, as investors turned to gold to hedge against economic uncertainty and stock market volatility [1]. The price adjustment after the tax reform may further affect the attractiveness of different investment channels.

The valuation of gold-related stocks is affected by multiple factors, among which the global gold price trend is the core driver. Gold mining stocks (such as Zijin Mining (601899.SS), Shandong Gold (600547.SS)) rose by 63.39% and 29.40% respectively in 2024-2025, mainly benefiting from rising gold prices [0]. Jewelry retail stocks (such as Laofengxiang (600612.SS)) fell by 34.75%, mainly due to the 11% drop in jewelry consumption demand caused by high gold prices [1]. The direct impact of the gold tax reform on stock valuation is limited; it more indirectly affects through market order and consumer behavior. Jewelry retail enterprises may face mixed impacts due to pricing adjustments: on one hand, canceling the price distinction may make jewelry gold more attractive; on the other hand, the demand pressure from high gold prices will continue.

1. Market Standardization Role of Gold Tax Reform
   : Canceling the price distinction is part of the market order adjustment after the tax reform, aiming to resolve cost structure differences among different market participants, improve market transparency, and is beneficial to the healthy development of the gold market in the long run.
2. Core Driving Position of Gold Price Trend
   : Whether it is gold investment channels or related stock valuations, the global gold price trend remains the most critical influencing factor; the impact of the tax reform needs to be comprehensively judged in combination with gold price fluctuations.
3. Dual Impact on Consumer Behavior
   : High gold prices have both promoted the growth of investment demand and suppressed jewelry consumption. The pricing adjustment after the tax reform may further exacerbate this differentiation; investors and enterprises need to pay close attention to changes in consumer behavior.

1. Short-term Market Uncertainty
   : The adjustment of the pricing system after the tax reform may lead to short-term market fluctuations; investors and enterprises need to adapt to the new market rules.
2. Sustained Weakness in Jewelry Retail Demand
   : The inhibitory effect of high gold prices on jewelry consumption will continue; jewelry retail enterprises face performance pressure.
3. Unclear Policy Details
   : The specific content and details of the gold tax reform have not been publicly disclosed, which may pose policy risks.

1. Growth in Gold Investment Demand
   : Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty will continue to drive gold investment demand; investment channels can seize opportunities by optimizing product structure.
2. Profit Growth of Gold Mining Enterprises
   : Rising gold prices drive profit growth of mining enterprises; there is still room for valuation improvement of related stocks.
3. Long-term Benefits from Market Standardization
   : The improved market transparency after the tax reform will attract more long-term investors, which is beneficial to the stable development of the gold market.

• Shenzhen Shuibei’s cancellation of the price distinction between investment gold and jewelry gold is a market response to the 2024 gold tax reform, aiming to resolve profit differentiation and consumer misinformation issues.
• Domestic gold investment channels will see improved transparency due to pricing standardization, but the original advantages of investment gold may weaken.
• Gold mining stocks benefit from rising gold prices, while jewelry retail stocks perform poorly due to weak demand; the direct impact of the tax reform on stock valuation is limited.
• Gold price trends, changes in consumer behavior, and policy details are key factors affecting China’s domestic gold market in the future.