Analysis of the Impact of U.S. Sanctions on Venezuela on the International Oil Market and Investments

The new round of U.S. sanctions on Venezuela’s Maduro regime (effective December 23, 2025) [1][4], whose core measure is to intercept and block oil tankers carrying Venezuelan crude oil, has triggered multi-dimensional chain reactions in the market.

1. International Oil Market
   : The sanctions triggered concerns about supply risks; Brent crude and WTI crude prices rose by approximately 2-3% respectively compared to before the sanctions (December 17), closing at $62/bbl and $58/bbl on December 23 [3][5][6]. However, due to the continued pressure of global oversupply, oil prices did not fluctuate sharply, as the market weighed supply risks against weak demand [3].
2. Energy Company Stock Prices
   : As energy giants with oil business ties to Venezuela, Chevron (CVX) and Exxon (XOM) saw their stock prices rise moderately after the sanctions [0]. Among them, Exxon’s stock price rose by 0.80% on December 23, reflecting the market’s moderate pricing of supply risks [0].
3. Latin America Investment Risks
   : The sanctions have intensified regional geopolitical tensions, and the escalation of U.S. military operations has led to a decline in investor confidence [9]. Market risk aversion has heated up, with gold and silver prices rising sharply [9]. Meanwhile, analysts worry that the sanctions may push Latin American countries to seek cooperation with U.S. geopolitical rivals, further affecting the regional investment environment [10].

1. Limitations of Sanction Effectiveness
   : Although analysts expect Venezuela’s oil exports to drop by about 20% [10], the existence of the “dark fleet” (informal tanker network) may ease the pressure of export decline [10], resulting in the actual impact of the sanctions on the oil market being lower than expected.
2. Differentiation in Market Sentiment
   : The moderate rise in energy stocks coexists with the surge in safe-haven asset prices, reflecting different market expectations of the sanctions’ impact: the energy market focuses on supply contraction, while the investment market is more worried about the spread of geopolitical risks [0][9].
3. Long-term Geopolitical Impact
   : The U.S. blockade measures may weaken its influence in Latin America [10], pushing countries in the region to adjust their diplomatic and economic strategies, which will have a structural impact on the long-term investment environment.

• Risks
  : 1. Escalation of sanctions may trigger geopolitical conflicts between Venezuela and the U.S. and neighboring countries, intensifying instability in Latin America [7][9]; 2. If Venezuela’s oil production cuts exceed expectations, it may lead to fluctuations in global oil prices [10]; 3. Rising investment risks in Latin America may lead to capital outflows [9].
• Opportunities
  : The sanctions may provide market share expansion opportunities for other oil-producing countries (such as OPEC members); the increased demand for safe-haven assets brings short-term opportunities for precious metal investments [9].

The new U.S. sanctions on Venezuela have had a moderate impact on the international oil market, with oil prices rising slightly before stabilizing; energy company stock prices have reacted limitedly, showing a moderate upward trend; investment risks in Latin America have heated up, pushing up the prices of safe-haven assets. The effect of the sanctions is limited by factors such as the “dark fleet”, and the long-term geopolitical impact remains to be observed.

(Note: Some remarks about the U.S. going to war with Venezuela have not been officially confirmed [7], and the specific magnitude of Venezuela’s oil export decline is still an analyst’s forecast.)