Crypto Market Rebound Analysis: Bitcoin's Volatile Week Below $100,000

This analysis is based on the CNBC report [1] published on November 7, 2025, which covered cryptocurrency markets rebounding after Bitcoin dropped below $100,000. The event represents a significant psychological test for the crypto market, occurring just after Bitcoin plunged to $99,966 on November 4, 2025 - its lowest level in over four months [4].

The cryptocurrency market experienced severe volatility throughout early November 2025, with Bitcoin declining approximately 20% from its October 6 all-time high of $126,198 [2]. The broader crypto market capitalization fell to $3.49 trillion, down 0.7% on November 7, with the total market value losing roughly $1 trillion during the 48-hour correction period [3]. Despite these declines, trading volumes remained robust at $180.4 billion, indicating sustained market participation and liquidity [3].

The $100,000 level represents a critical psychological support threshold for Bitcoin [4]. Technical analysis suggests that failure to maintain this level could trigger further corrections toward $98,500 and $96,800, while a sustained close above $103,000 could open the path toward $105,000-$107,000 resistance levels [3]. This marks Bitcoin’s first significant test of six-figure support since establishing it earlier in 2025.

The crypto sell-off demonstrated increasing correlation with traditional equity markets, particularly technology stocks. The Nasdaq Composite dropped more than 1% on November 4, with AI-linked stocks like Palantir facing valuation concerns [4]. Asian markets mirrored Wall Street losses, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 falling 1.75% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declining 0.74% [3].

Several macroeconomic factors contributed to the market weakness:

• Ongoing U.S. government shutdown effects on market visibility and trading patterns [3]
• Federal Reserve policy uncertainty regarding rate-cut expectations
• Labor market weakness indicated by 153,074 job cuts in October [3]

Institutional demand showed signs of cooling, with Kraken economist Thomas Perfumo noting slowed demand from major treasuries like MicroStrategy [3]. However, Bitcoin ETFs demonstrated some recovery with $240.03 million in net inflows on November 6, suggesting continued institutional confidence at lower price levels [3]. Bitcoin ETF trading volume reached $4.77 billion on November 6, indicating sustained institutional interest despite price weakness [3].

Market sentiment deteriorated significantly, with the CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropping to 21 (“Fear”) from 24 the previous day and 62 a month ago [3]. This shift from “Greed” to “Fear” territory suggests potential for panic selling if support levels fail to hold.

The current market behavior resembles October-November 2018 patterns, when Bitcoin fell 37% in November after failing to rise on seasonal tailwinds in October [4]. This historical precedent suggests potential for additional 20-30% declines if similar patterns repeat, though current market fundamentals differ significantly from 2018.

Despite severe price declines, trading volumes remained elevated at $180.4 billion, creating a liquidity paradox [3]. This indicates that market participants are actively trading rather than exiting positions entirely, suggesting the correction may be more of a redistribution event than a capitulation phase.

The Bitcoin ETF market showed remarkable resilience with $4.77 billion in trading volume on November 6 and positive net inflows of $240.03 million [3]. This suggests the ETF structure is providing crucial liquidity support during market stress, potentially mitigating more severe downside scenarios.

The increasing correlation between crypto and technology stocks, particularly AI-related equities, represents a structural shift in market dynamics [4]. This correlation may expose crypto to traditional market volatility but could also provide validation as a legitimate risk asset class.

• Support Level Failure:
  Bitcoin’s inability to hold the $100,000 psychological level could trigger automated selling algorithms and deeper corrections toward $96,800 [3]
• Leverage Amplification:
  High leverage in derivatives markets could magnify downside movements during periods of elevated volatility
• Institutional Withdrawal:
  Continued cooling of institutional demand could signal a longer-term trend reversal [3]

• Government Shutdown Impact:
  Prolonged federal shutdown could delay economic data releases and affect market sentiment [3]
• Fed Policy Divergence:
  Any deviation from expected rate-cut trajectory could negatively impact risk assets including cryptocurrencies
• Economic Slowdown:
  Recent labor market weakness suggests broader economic risks that could affect crypto adoption

• The 20% decline from all-time highs may present attractive entry points for long-term investors
• ETF inflows suggest institutional value buying at lower levels [3]
• High trading volumes indicate market liquidity for position sizing

• ETF maturation could lead to more stable price discovery mechanisms
• Correlation with traditional markets may attract mainstream investors seeking diversification
• Regulatory clarity could emerge from current market stress testing

The cryptocurrency market experienced significant volatility in early November 2025, with Bitcoin dropping below $100,000 for the first time since June 2025 before showing signs of recovery [1, 4]. The correction resulted in approximately $1 trillion of market value loss over 48 hours, though trading volumes remained robust at $180.4 billion [3].

Technical analysis identifies the $100,000 level as crucial psychological support, with potential for further declines toward $96,800 if this level fails to hold, or recovery toward $105,000-$107,000 if sustained above $103,000 [3]. Market sentiment has deteriorated to “Fear” territory with the Fear and Greed Index at 21, down from 62 a month ago [3].

Institutional demand appears to be cooling according to some analysts, though Bitcoin ETFs showed $240.03 million in net inflows on November 6, suggesting continued institutional interest at lower prices [3]. The market’s increasing correlation with technology stocks, particularly AI-related equities, represents a structural shift that may provide both risks and opportunities for crypto investors [4].

Historical parallels to 2018 market patterns suggest potential for additional declines, though current market fundamentals and ETF infrastructure differ significantly from the previous cycle [4]. The current market environment requires careful monitoring of institutional flow patterns, technical support levels, and macroeconomic developments.