Hainan Ruizhi (002596) Limit-Up Analysis and Future Trend Prediction

1. Core Catalyst for Limit-Up
   : Hainan Ruizhi (002596) has hit the limit-up for 3 consecutive trading days, mainly due to the positive policy impact from the official launch of Hainan’s closed customs operation. On December 23, 2025, Hainan entered the full implementation phase of closed customs, and on the same day, the sales volume of Sanya Duty-Free City exceeded 100 million yuan, hitting a historical high [1]. As a leading local building materials company in Hainan, investors expect that demand for infrastructure, hotel tourism supporting facilities, etc., will grow after the closed customs operation, promoting the company’s business expansion.

2. Price and Trading Volume Performance
   : On December 23, it closed at the limit-up price of 6.48 yuan, with an increase of 10.02%; from December 22 to 23, the cumulative increase was 21.12%, and the cumulative deviation value was 20.02%, triggering abnormal fluctuations [2]. The turnover on the limit-up day was 1.193 billion yuan, the turnover rate was 16.13%, far higher than the historical average. The Dragon and Tiger List shows that both institutions and hot money participated, with net capital inflow.

3. Market Sentiment Interpretation
   : Hainan Free Trade Port is a major national strategy, and the closed customs operation marks the entry into the substantive stage of policy implementation. The market has strong expectations for local enterprises. The Hainan sector has strengthened overall, with tourism, duty-free, and building materials stocks rising in linkage, forming a sector effect, and short-term investor sentiment is exuberant.

• Policy Drive and Fundamental Divergence
  : The company’s revenue in the first three quarters of 2025 was 894 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.77%; net profit was 81.1977 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.70%. The short-term stock price increase does not reflect the actual performance. Market sentiment is mainly driven by policy expectations rather than performance.
• Obvious Capital Game Characteristics
  : High turnover rate and Dragon and Tiger List data show high participation of speculative funds, and there may be suspicion of over-speculation in consecutive limit-ups.

: ① Speculative risk: After consecutive limit-ups, market sentiment is exuberant, and there is greater short-term correction pressure. Vigilance is needed for profit-taking by speculative funds; ② Uncertainty in policy implementation: The actual impact of closed customs on the company will take time to manifest, and short-term positive impact is more driven by sentiment; ③ Fundamental pressure: The company’s revenue and profit are both declining, and long-term growth momentum needs to be verified.

: ① Long-term policy dividends: After Hainan’s closed customs operation, the construction of the free trade port will gradually advance. If demand for infrastructure and tourism supporting facilities grows, the company may usher in development opportunities; ② Sector linkage effect: The overall strength of the Hainan sector may drive individual stocks to remain active in the short term.

Hainan Ruizhi (002596)'s limit-up is driven by policy expectations of Hainan’s closed customs operation and the growth of duty-free sales. Market sentiment is exuberant in the short term, but there is a divergence between fundamentals and stock price. Investors need to pay attention to: ① The current price of 6.48 yuan is a short-term strong resistance level; a breakthrough requires sustained amplification of trading volume; ② 5.35 yuan is a previous important support level; attention should be paid to the defense situation during correction; ③ The actual impact of the policy implementation pace and the company’s performance changes on the stock price.

This report is a comprehensive analysis of information and does not constitute investment advice. Investors need to make prudent decisions based on their own situation.