Analysis of Supporting Factors for Guodian Power (600795) Transition from Cyclical Stock to Value Stock

Guodian Power (600795), as a large state-owned power enterprise in China, is promoting the transition from a traditional cyclical stock to a stable value stock. Its core strategies include: weakening the cyclicality of the thermal power sector through major shareholder concessions, committing to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 60% to ensure performance stability, and relying on the Dadu River hydropower project and major shareholder asset injection to obtain sustained growth momentum [0].

From the perspective of market data, the company’s stock price performed strongly in 2025, with a YTD increase of 33.86%. The current stock price ($5.93) is far higher than the 200-day moving average ($4.86), indicating an obvious upward trend [0]. In terms of financial indicators, a P/E ratio of 14.26 times, a P/B ratio of 1.73 times, and an ROE of 12.72% reflect relatively reasonable valuation and stable profitability [0]. At the industry level, China’s power marketization reform and the improvement of the coal-power linkage mechanism provide policy support for reducing the cyclicality of thermal power business [0].

1. Correlation between Major Shareholder Concessions and Weakened Cyclicality
   : The cyclical fluctuations of the thermal power business are the core challenge for Guodian Power’s transformation. The major shareholder stabilizes the thermal power sector through supporting measures for market-oriented reforms, essentially using the resource advantages of state-owned enterprises to smooth industry cycles, which is the foundation for realizing the transition from cyclical stock to value stock.
2. Signaling Significance of High Dividend Commitment
   : If the 60% dividend payout ratio commitment is implemented, it will significantly improve the company’s cash flow stability, conform to the characteristics of value stocks (“high dividend, low volatility”), and help attract long-term investors.
3. Sustainability of Growth Momentum
   : As an important hydropower resource base in China, the development of the Dadu River project and the injection of high-quality assets by major shareholders will promote the increase in the proportion of clean energy in the company, which not only aligns with the national energy transition policy but also reduces long-term profit volatility.

• Some strategies (such as specific measures for major shareholder concessions, 60% dividend payout ratio commitment) have not been verified through official announcements, with uncertainties;
• The specific content, time, and effect of asset injection are uncertain;
• Changes in power industry regulatory policies may affect the transformation process.

• National energy transition policies’ support for clean energy provides development space for the Dadu River project;
• Market preference for state-owned enterprise reform and value stocks may further promote valuation improvement;
• Stable financial status and cash flow provide basic guarantee for the transformation.

Guodian Power (600795)‘s transformation strategies (major shareholder concessions, high dividend commitment, asset injection expectations) align with the market’s demand for value stocks, and the current stock price performance reflects investors’ positive expectations. However, some strategy details have not been officially implemented yet, so investors need to pay attention to company announcements and financial reports to obtain more accurate information.

All data and analysis are based on the Jinling Analysis Database [0] and public industry information.