Weekly Market Recap & Weekend Outlook - November 7, 2025

This weekly market analysis is based on comprehensive market data and news sources covering the week ending November 7, 2025. The week concluded with notable divergence across major indices, as the S&P 500 (+0.71%) and Dow Jones (+0.75%) posted modest weekly gains, while the Nasdaq Composite experienced its worst week since April [0][4]. This divergence reflects a significant sector rotation away from technology and AI-related stocks toward defensive positioning.

The week’s performance revealed clear leadership patterns, with defensive sectors outperforming on Friday: Utilities (+4.68%), Financial Services (+2.30%), and Energy (+1.81%) led gains [0]. In contrast, Technology (+0.05%) and Consumer Cyclical (+0.08%) sectors lagged significantly, highlighting the ongoing rotation from growth to value. The Russell 2000’s strong Friday performance (+1.03%) [0] suggests small-cap resilience amid broader market uncertainty.

Several major developments drove this week’s price action:

1. Federal Reserve Policy Uncertainty
   : Fed officials signaled caution regarding December rate cuts, with San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly favoring a measured approach and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee remaining “undecided” due to inflation concerns [2]. The market is currently pricing in approximately -17bps of rate cuts for the December FOMC meeting [6].

2. Government Shutdown Impact
   : Ongoing government shutdown concerns continued to weigh on sentiment throughout the week, with traders closely monitoring any progress toward resolution [4]. This uncertainty contributed to risk-off positioning.

3. Trump’s Meatpacking Investigation
   : President Trump announced a Justice Department investigation into foreign-owned meatpacking companies, accusing them of “illicit collusion, price fixing and price manipulation” in beef markets [1][2][3]. This announcement came as beef prices reached record highs, with ground beef averaging $6.32 per pound in September 2025, up from $4.86 in September 2022 [3].

4. AI Stock Valuation Concerns
   : Technology and AI infrastructure stocks faced persistent pressure throughout the week as investors questioned sky-high valuations [4]. This contributed significantly to the Nasdaq’s underperformance.

The third-quarter earnings season largely concluded successfully, with 75% of S&P 500 companies having reported and beaten consensus estimates by 6% [2]. Strong results from major technology companies like Alphabet and Amazon provided some support, though broader valuation concerns limited positive impact on tech-heavy indices.

The stark outperformance of utilities (+4.68%) and financial services (+2.30%) on Friday [0] indicates an accelerated defensive rotation. This shift reflects growing investor caution amid multiple uncertainties including Fed policy, government shutdown, and geopolitical developments. The relative strength in small-caps (Russell 2000 +1.03%) [0] suggests investors are seeking value opportunities outside of large-cap growth names.

Friday’s trading revealed extreme volatility in individual stocks, with several notable decliners: e.l.f. Beauty (-35.04%), Duolingo (-25.49%), Remitly Global (-25.12%), Celsius Holdings (-24.80%), and CarMax (-24.33%) [8]. This concentration of losses in specific names rather than broad market weakness suggests stock-specific catalysts and potentially crowded positioning being unwound.

With the Fed entering its blackout period ahead of the December meeting, markets will become increasingly sensitive to economic data releases and any unexpected developments. The current pricing of -17bps of rate cuts [6] reflects considerable uncertainty, suggesting markets could react strongly to upcoming inflation and employment data.

The meatpacking investigation announcement [1][2][3] adds to geopolitical tensions and could have broader implications for trade policy and international relations. This development, combined with ongoing government shutdown concerns, suggests an elevated risk premium that could persist through year-end.

• Government Shutdown Resolution
  : Any progress toward ending the shutdown could provide a significant positive catalyst for Monday’s trading session [4]
• Fed Communications
  : Watch for any unexpected Fed official comments during the blackout period that could shift rate cut expectations [2]
• Geopolitical Escalation
  : Monitor developments related to the meatpacking investigation or potential trade tensions [1][2][3]
• International Developments
  : G20 meetings over the weekend could influence global market sentiment [6]

Key technical levels to watch include S&P 500 support around 6,630 and resistance near 6,800, Nasdaq support at 22,500 and resistance at 23,200, and Dow support at 46,500 and resistance at 47,500. The elevated volatility in individual stocks suggests increased uncertainty and potentially broader market consolidation ahead.

Major events for November 10-14 include earnings from Paramount, Occidental Petroleum, Tyson Foods (Monday), Cisco Systems (Wednesday), Applied Materials and Walt Disney (Thursday), and key economic data including US Core PPI and Retail Sales (Friday) [5][6].

The week concluded with mixed performance across major indices, reflecting ongoing sector rotation from growth to defensive names. Technology and AI stocks faced valuation pressure while utilities, financials, and energy provided relative strength. Key drivers included Fed policy uncertainty, government shutdown concerns, and geopolitical developments surrounding the meatpacking investigation. Earnings season largely concluded with strong results, though valuation concerns limited positive impact. Markets enter the weekend with elevated uncertainty, with the Fed blackout period and potential government shutdown resolution serving as key catalysts for next week’s trading. Defensive positioning appears prevalent, suggesting investors are bracing for continued volatility through year-end.