Analysis of Robotaxi Commercialization Prospects and Profit Models of Leading Enterprises

The December 2025 special report by Guosen Securities [0] points out that the operating cost per kilometer of Robotaxi has dropped to 0.81 yuan, which has a significant cost advantage over fuel ride-hailing (1.93 yuan) and pure electric ride-hailing (1.43 yuan). The cost reduction is mainly due to lower vehicle procurement costs (Baidu RT6 dropped to 205,000 yuan), improved cloud-based driving efficiency (1 person managing 50 vehicles), and improved operational efficiency (24-hour operation, 22 orders per day on average).

From the perspective of industry development, Waymo’s operational data [2] shows that as of December 2025, it completes 450,000 paid rides per week, with an annual revenue run rate exceeding 350 million US dollars, verifying the large-scale potential of Robotaxi. Statista predicts [3] that the global AV market will grow from 106 billion US dollars in 2021 to 2.3 trillion US dollars in 2030, and the industry has broad long-term growth prospects.

For leading enterprises, WeRide’s Q3 2025 revenue increased by 144% year-on-year, gross margin rose to 32.9%, and it obtained fully driverless operation licenses in overseas markets (Abu Dhabi, Switzerland), with unit economics approaching break-even [1]. Pony.ai’s revenue increased by 72% year-on-year in the same period, with a gross margin of 18.4%, but net loss expanded by 46%, still in the “burning money for market share” stage [1].

1. Cost Advantage is the Foundation of Commercialization
   : If the cost advantage of Robotaxi (0.81 yuan per kilometer) can be sustained, it will provide strong support for the 2026 commercialization boom. However, it should be noted that this data currently only comes from the Guosen Securities report and has not been verified by other sources, so it needs to be treated with caution [0].

2. Significant Differentiation Among Leading Enterprises
   : WeRide has made breakthroughs in overseas markets, with unit economics approaching break-even and relatively optimistic profit prospects [1]; while Pony.ai’s revenue has grown, its net loss has expanded, and its profit model still needs optimization [1].

3. Technology and Scale are Core Drivers
   : Improved cloud-based driving efficiency (1 person managing 50 vehicles) and operational efficiency (24-hour operation, 22 orders per day on average) are key prerequisites for Robotaxi profitability [0]. Waymo’s large-scale operation data [2] shows that when the operation scale reaches a certain level, the profit potential of Robotaxi will gradually be released.

• Cost advantage is significant; if commercialization boom is achieved in 2026, leading enterprises will face development opportunities [0].
• Global AV market size forecasts show that the industry has huge long-term growth potential [3].
• Breakthroughs by enterprises such as WeRide in overseas markets provide new paths for international development [1].

• The data of Robotaxi’s cost of 0.81 yuan per kilometer has not been widely verified; if the actual cost is higher than this level, the commercialization process may slow down [0].
• Enterprises such as Pony.ai are still in the “burning money for market share” stage, with expanding net losses, and the sustainability of their profit models is questionable [1].
• Factors such as technological maturity and regulatory environment may still affect the commercialization process [0].

Robotaxi has significant cost advantages, and the industry has great long-term growth potential; 2026 is expected to be the first year of commercialization. However, there is significant differentiation in profitability among leading enterprises: WeRide has relatively optimistic profit prospects, while Pony.ai still needs to optimize its profit model. Investors need to pay attention to technological maturity, scale effects, regulatory environment, and the verification of cost data to objectively evaluate the development potential of the industry and enterprises.

It should be noted that this analysis is based on existing public information and does not constitute investment advice. The Robotaxi industry is still in the early stage of development, with many uncertainties, and investors should carefully evaluate the risks.