Assessment of the Impact of the Housing Voucher Policy on Chinese Real Estate Stocks

The Housing Voucher Policy, as a new monetary policy tool, has become the focus of current attention regarding its impact on China’s real estate market. Social media analysis indicates that no specific information about this policy was found in mainstream financial media, speculating it may be a niche policy or concept that has not yet been formally implemented or has a limited geographical scope. In terms of stock performance: Poly Developments (600048.SS) fell by 28.39% in 2025, with a cumulative drop of over 59% in the past five years; both its price-to-earnings ratio and return on equity are negative. Greentown China (3900.HK) dropped by 10.66% in 2025, with a cumulative decline of approximately 26% over the past five years, also showing negative earnings and negative return on equity. China Resources Land (1109.HK) performed relatively well: it rose by 20.88% in 2025, with a P/E ratio of 6.54 and a return on equity of 9.47%, and a cumulative decline of about 11% over the past five years. Technical analysis shows that all three stocks are currently in a sideways trading state. Poly Developments has a MACD golden cross (bullish), while Greentown China and China Resources Land have bearish MACD signals.

From the analysis, the specific content and implementation status of the Housing Voucher Policy are still unclear, which poses challenges to evaluating its impact on real estate stocks. The performance of the three real estate stocks is clearly divergent: China Resources Land’s fundamentals and stock price performance are better than those of Poly Developments and Greentown China, reflecting differences in competitiveness among different enterprises in the market. The sideways trading state on the technical side and diverging MACD signals indicate that there are disagreements in the market’s views on these stocks currently.

On the risk side: The uncertainty of the Housing Voucher Policy may lead to fluctuations in market expectations for the real estate industry. Among the three stocks, Poly Developments and Greentown China’s negative earnings and negative return on equity indicate that they are facing significant operational pressure. On the opportunity side: China Resources Land’s good performance shows that high-quality real estate enterprises still have investment opportunities. Investors should pay attention to the subsequent progress of the Housing Voucher Policy and changes in enterprise fundamentals.

The specific content and implementation status of the Housing Voucher Policy need to be further clarified. There are significant differences in stock price performance and fundamentals among Poly Developments, Greentown China, and China Resources Land, with China Resources Land performing relatively prominently. The technical side shows that all three stocks are in sideways trading with diverging MACD signals. Investors should closely monitor policy dynamics and changes in enterprise fundamentals, and carefully evaluate investment risks and opportunities.