Analysis of the Impact of State-Owned Shareholder Support on the Reconstruction of Guodian Power's Valuation System

As a state-owned thermal power enterprise, Guodian Power experienced important changes in operations and valuation in 2024. First, the improvement in coal costs directly supported the company’s performance. According to external research, China’s coal prices fell to a four-year low in 2024, leading to a significant drop in fuel costs for power generation enterprises, which is a direct benefit to Guodian Power, whose main business is thermal power [1]. At the same time, the company’s stock price has performed strongly since 2024, rising from 4.14 yuan per share to 5.87 yuan, an increase of 41.79%, with a current P/E ratio of 14.26x, which is in a reasonable valuation range for the utilities sector [0]. In addition, the company’s Dadu River Hydropower Project is mentioned to have the potential to double its capacity in the next 5-10 years, which will bring stable renewable energy income and improve the business structure.

The substantial support from state-owned shareholders is the core driver of the reconstruction of Guodian Power’s valuation system. Although no public information on dividend floor commitments and specific asset injections has been found yet, the state-owned background provides a basis for the feasibility of these support measures. The decline in coal costs not only improves short-term profitability but also reduces the performance volatility of the thermal power business, which will change the market’s expectations for the stability of the company’s earnings. At the same time, the long-term growth potential of the hydropower project brings growth attributes to the company, breaking the cyclical valuation logic of traditional thermal power enterprises.

: If the trend of falling coal costs continues, it will further improve the profitability of the company’s thermal power business; the expansion of hydropower projects will increase the proportion of renewable energy installed capacity, which is in line with the direction of energy transition and is expected to obtain a market valuation premium. : Coal prices have cyclical fluctuation risks; if prices rebound in the future, profits will be eroded; asset injections and dividend commitments have not yet been implemented, and there is uncertainty; the construction cycle of hydropower projects is long, and short-term performance contributions are limited.

With the support of state-owned shareholders, Guodian Power is undergoing a reconstruction of its valuation system through cost improvement and business structure optimization. The decline in coal costs has improved profit stability, and the expansion of hydropower projects has given it growth attributes. These changes have altered the valuation logic of traditional thermal power enterprises. The rise in the company’s stock price reflects the market’s initial recognition of these changes, but attention still needs to be paid to cost fluctuations and the implementation of asset support measures.