Analysis of the Impact of China's Trade Surplus Exceeding $1 Trillion on A-Share Investment Opportunities

China’s goods trade surplus exceeded $1 trillion for the first time in the first 11 months of 2025, reaching nearly $1.08 trillion [1][2][3]. Although exports to the US decreased by 20-30%, strong export growth to emerging economies such as ASEAN, Latin America, and Africa offset the negative impact. Exports of high-tech manufacturing are an important support for surplus growth, with electric vehicle exports performing particularly prominently [4]. From the market performance perspective, from December 1 to 22, 2025, the STAR 50 Index (000688.SZ) fell by 1.34%, and BYD (1211.HK) fell by 4.29% during the same period [0], indicating that the market’s reaction to the surplus exceeding $1 trillion is neutral to negative, possibly affected by geopolitical tensions, concerns about domestic economic growth, and valuation factors.

The trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion reflects the optimization of China’s export structure, with an increased proportion of exports to emerging markets, reducing dependence on developed markets; the structural growth of high-tech manufacturing exports, especially against the background of the government promoting “independent and controllable”, is expected to continue driving surplus growth. There may be a divergence between the short-term adjustments of relevant A-share sectors and long-term industrial trends, and the independent and controllable policy will provide continuous support for the development of high-tech manufacturing.

: The structural growth of high-tech manufacturing exports and the promotion of independent and controllable policies bring long-term investment value to relevant sectors (such as electric vehicles, high-end equipment, etc.). Strong export growth to emerging markets may drive the development of cross-border trade and supply chain-related enterprises.

: Geopolitical risks may affect the stability of export growth; domestic economic growth pressure and market sentiment fluctuations may lead to short-term corrections in relevant sectors; overvaluation in some sub-sectors may limit short-term returns.

China’s goods trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion is mainly driven by export growth to emerging economies, with structural growth of high-tech manufacturing exports as an important support. The current A-share market’s reaction to this news is neutral to negative, with a divergence between short-term sector performance and long-term industrial trends. Investors need to pay attention to the sustained growth potential of high-tech manufacturing exports, the implementation effect of the independent and controllable policy, and the impact of multiple factors such as geopolitics and domestic economy on the market.