Impact of Novo Nordisk's Semaglutide Cardiovascular Indication Approval on China's Weight Loss Drug Market and Performance

On December 22, 2025, Novo Nordisk’s weight loss version of semaglutide (Nuoheyin) received NMPA approval for cardiovascular indication [1], becoming the first GLP-1 weight loss drug in China to obtain this indication. As China’s obesity rate continues to rise (projected to reach two-thirds by 2030 [2]), demand for weight loss drugs in the domestic market is growing rapidly. Currently, the global market is dominated by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, the only companies with FDA-approved anti-obesity drugs [3]. This approval gives semaglutide a unique competitive advantage in China, especially for adult patients with BMI ≥27kg/m² and comorbid cardiovascular diseases, meeting the unmet needs of this segment.

The approval of semaglutide’s cardiovascular indication is a critical step in its differentiated competition. The cardiovascular protective effect of GLP-1 drugs has been confirmed [6], and this approval will help Novo Nordisk gain an advantageous position in competition with Eli Lilly’s Zepbound. Meanwhile, Chinese local companies like Innovent Biologics and Ascletis Pharma are actively布局 the weight loss drug market [4], and this approval will intensify market competition and drive industry acceleration. Additionally, semaglutide’s patent in China will expire in 2026 [5], and the expectation of generic competition and the positive impact of this approval form a game, affecting market judgments on its long-term performance.

In terms of opportunities, this approval expands semaglutide’s applicable population and brings new performance growth points for Novo Nordisk. The differentiated positioning of cardiovascular indication will enhance product competitiveness and consolidate its market leading position. In terms of risks, generic competition after patent expiration, challenges from international competitors like Eli Lilly, and the rise of domestic local companies may all affect its market share. Furthermore, the stock price fell by 2.01% the day after the event [0], reflecting market digestion of positive news and concerns about long-term competition.

The approval of semaglutide’s cardiovascular indication is a significant event in China’s weight loss drug market. Novo Nordisk will further consolidate its position in the domestic market with this differentiated advantage. The continuous growth of China’s obesity rate provides a broad space for the weight loss drug market, and the cardiovascular protective effect of GLP-1 drugs will become an important dimension of future competition. The approaching generic competition and challenges from international and domestic competitors make the market pattern full of variables.