Gold Breaks Through $4400, Up 68% YTD: Valuation and Investment Value Analysis

On December 22, 2025, spot gold (London Gold) first broke through the $4400 per ounce mark [1][2], reaching a high of $4403.02 per ounce with a daily gain of over 1% [1]; the cumulative year-to-date gain was approximately 69% [0], continuing the three-year consecutive upward trend from 2023 to 2025 (up 13% in 2023, 26% in 2024, and 69% in 2025) [0].

The core driving factors behind the sharp rise in gold prices include: ① escalating geopolitical tensions [3]; ② market expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4]; ③ continuous gold purchases by central banks worldwide, forming structural demand support [5]; ④ sustained capital inflows into gold ETFs [1]; and ⑤ investors’ concerns about the creditworthiness of the US dollar, using gold as a hedge tool [5].

Regarding current valuation: In the short term, some investors and analysts believe gold valuations are already at extremely high levels [4], with technical overbought risks [5]; in the long term, structural factors such as central bank gold purchases provide relatively stable support for gold valuations.

This gold price rise is the result of the superposition and resonance of multiple macro factors, and the role of structural driving factors (e.g., central bank gold purchases) is more prominent than in previous cycles [5], breaking the traditional single logic driven only by monetary policy or geopolitical events. Additionally, the simultaneous fermentation of Fed rate cut expectations and geopolitical uncertainty has amplified gold’s dual attributes of safe-haven and anti-inflation, further pushing up prices [4][5].

: In the short term, technical overbought may bring correction pressure [5]; if geopolitical tensions ease or Fed policy adjustments exceed expectations, gold prices may fluctuate [3][4].

: In the long term, if core driving factors such as central bank gold purchases and concerns about US dollar credit persist, gold still has long-term investment value. Institutions are generally optimistic about gold price trends in 2026—Goldman Sachs predicts gold prices will reach $4900 per ounce by December 2026 [1], and HSBC expects it to potentially break through $5000 per ounce [6].

Gold saw significant gains in 2025; short-term correction risks from technical overbought need to be watched. Its long-term investment value depends on the persistence of core driving factors (geopolitics, central bank gold purchases, monetary policy, etc.). Investors should comprehensively evaluate gold’s role in asset allocation based on their own risk preferences and investment cycles.