Analysis of Moutai's Cyclical Crisis and Evaluation of Current Investment Window

As the ‘king of stocks’ in A-shares, Moutai entered an adjustment cycle after reaching a price peak of 3500 yuan per bottle in December 2021, facing cyclical issues such as overcapacity, excessive channel inventory, and saturated consumer inventory [0]. By comparing Moutai’s cyclical crisis history with that of companies like Dong-E-E-Jiao and Li-Ning, it is currently in the slow phase of the cycle, and price reduction and shipment cuts may be the path to recovery [0]. Financial data shows that Moutai has low debt risk and strong profitability (ROE 36.48%, net profit margin 51.51%), but the channel inventory and price reduction situation have not yet been fully verified by the latest specific data [0].

From the perspective of price trends, Moutai’s stock price has fallen by approximately 29.5% from its 2021 peak, with the P/E ratio dropping to 19.49x, which is at a relatively low valuation level [0]. DCF valuation analysis indicates that Moutai’s fair value is approximately 1577.40 yuan, which is about 12.6% higher than the current price of 1410 yuan, with a probability-weighted upside potential of 24.5%. The current price may be undervalued [0]. The core of cyclical investment lies in seizing the opportunity to lock in gains at high points and deploy high-quality assets at low points. Moutai’s current valuation and cycle phase give it deployment potential.

: The uncertainty of channel inventory and price reduction still needs attention. The recovery duration of the cyclical crisis is difficult to accurately judge, and market sentiment fluctuations may lead to further short-term stock price adjustments [0].
: The low valuation level and strong fundamentals provide a window for long-term investors to deploy high-quality assets. If Moutai effectively resolves the channel inventory problem through measures such as price reduction and shipment cuts, it is expected to usher in a cycle reversal [0].

Moutai is currently in a cyclical adjustment phase after its 2021 peak, facing cyclical challenges such as production capacity and inventory. The stock price has fallen significantly, and the valuation is at a relatively low level. DCF valuation shows that the current price has upside potential. Although there are uncertainties about channel inventory and price reduction, the strong fundamentals and low valuation provide investors with potential deployment opportunities.