Analysis of Moutai's Cyclical Adjustment Response Strategies and Investment Timing

Moutai (600519.SS), as a leading baijiu enterprise in A-shares, entered a cyclical adjustment phase after its stock price reached a historical high of 2216.96 CNY per share in December 2021 [0]. As of December 2025, the stock price has fallen by 27.69% cumulatively, with the current stock price at 1410.00 CNY per share and a market value of 1.75 trillion USD [0]. Despite being in a cyclical adjustment period, Moutai’s financial performance remains stable, with a net profit margin of 51.51% and an ROE of 36.48%, showing strong anti-cyclical capabilities [0].

Regarding whether price reduction and shipment reduction can solve the supply-demand imbalance, it needs to be analyzed in combination with the overall trend of the baijiu industry. Currently, the baijiu industry has entered a deep adjustment period of “stock competition” [1], with market demand growth slowing down and competition intensifying. The price reduction strategy may alleviate inventory pressure in the short term, but may damage the brand’s premium capacity in the long term; while reducing shipments can reduce market supply, it is necessary to balance channel interests and short-term performance pressure. The response experience of the 2012 plasticizer crisis is of reference significance for the current situation, but the specific strategies still need to be further verified.

1. Moutai’s cyclical adjustment is closely related to the overall industry trend, not a problem of a single enterprise. After the baijiu industry enters the stage of stock competition, enterprises need to shift from scale expansion to value enhancement, and Moutai’s brand moat still provides strong support for it.
2. The price reduction and shipment reduction strategies need to be implemented cautiously. Price reduction may affect brand positioning, while reducing shipments needs to consider channel inventory and dealer relationships, and adjust flexibly in combination with changes in market demand.
3. Moutai’s financial stability provides a buffer space for it to cope with cyclical adjustments, and investors need to pay attention to the effect of the company’s strategic adjustments and the marginal changes in industry demand.

• The price reduction strategy may damage the brand’s premium and affect long-term profitability.
• Reducing shipments may lead to a short-term decline in performance and affect market confidence.
• The stock competition in the baijiu industry is intensifying, and leading enterprises are facing greater market pressure.

• Moutai’s brand resilience and financial stability enable it to have strong cyclical recovery capabilities.
• The industry adjustment period provides an opportunity for Moutai to optimize its channel structure and enhance product strength.
• The bottom of the cycle may provide high-quality buying opportunities for long-term investors.

Moutai is currently in a cyclical adjustment phase, with a significant cumulative decline in stock price, but its financial indicators remain stable. The effectiveness of the price reduction and shipment reduction strategies needs to be evaluated in combination with industry trends and changes in market demand, and implemented cautiously to avoid damaging brand value. When looking for buying opportunities, investors need to pay attention to the marginal changes in industry demand, the effect of the company’s strategic adjustments, and the valuation level of the stock price, and comprehensively judge the bottom of the cycle based on macro and industry data.

It should be noted that this analysis has not fully verified the specific response strategies of the 2012 plasticizer crisis, the actual effect of the price reduction and shipment reduction strategies still needs to be observed, and the judgment of the cycle bottom needs to be supported by more data.