China’s 11% November 2025 Rare-Earth Magnet Export Decline to the U.S.: Supply Chain and Sector Valuation Impacts

This analysis is based on a Bloomberg report [1] and ts2.tech market update [2] detailing China’s 11% month-over-month (MoM) decline in rare-earth magnet exports to the U.S. in November 2025 (from 656 to 582 tons). Crucially, this decline is “within the average range since July” [2], and total Chinese magnet exports rose 12% MoM to 6,150 metric tons—their second-highest level on record—with exports to Japan surging 35% to 305 tons [2]. This indicates the U.S. decline stems from export allocation shifts, not domestic supply shortages.

Rare-earth magnets are a “sensitive choke point” in supply chains for electric vehicles (EVs), wind turbines, and defense technologies [2]. China’s earlier 2025 export restrictions had already forced manufacturers to de-risk their supply chains, with EV producers exploring alternative technologies [5]. In response to ongoing concentration risks, India approved an $816 million rare-earth permanent magnet manufacturing program on November 26, 2025, to reduce global reliance on Chinese supply [6].

Company performances in the sector reflect mixed dynamics:

• MP Materials (MP)
  : A U.S. rare-earth miner/processor with a 90.9% Buy consensus rating and 42% upside potential [0]. The stock declined 13.25% from November 3 to December 19, likely due to ongoing net losses (net profit margin: -50.55%) and execution risks [0].
• Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)
  : A major non-Chinese producer that faced power supply disruptions in November, leading to a production shortfall [7]. Its stock fell ~30% in late October-November but recovered slightly, with an average analyst target of +28% upside [7].

1. Short-Term Volatility vs. Structural Resilience
   : The U.S. export decline highlights near-term supply chain volatility but not an immediate crisis, given the overall rise in Chinese exports and allocation shifts.
2. Diversification Efforts Gain Momentum
   : The event accelerates policy-backed supply chain diversification, particularly in Asia (India) and the West, reducing long-term reliance on Chinese magnets.
3. Valuations Depend on Execution
   : Non-Chinese producers with proven operational stability stand to benefit from increased demand for resilient supply, while those facing execution risks (e.g., Lynas’ power disruptions) may experience volatile stock performance.
4. China’s Export Flexibility
   : The allocation shift to Japan demonstrates China’s ability to redirect rare-earth magnet exports, emphasizing the need for global manufacturers to build alternative supply sources.

• Non-Chinese rare-earth and magnet producers with stable execution capabilities could see higher valuations due to increased demand for supply chain resilience [0][2].
• Governments will likely expand policy support for critical mineral supply chain projects, as seen in the U.S. and India’s $816 million program [6].
• Western processing initiatives [2] may create new market opportunities for non-Chinese materials.

• China’s Future Policies
  : Uncertainty around potential export restrictions or regulations could disrupt long-term supply planning [2].
• Execution Risks
  : Operational challenges (e.g., Lynas’ power disruptions) may delay supply chain diversification efforts [7].
• Short-Term Price Volatility
  : Manufacturers adjusting their sourcing strategies could cause temporary price swings in rare-earth magnets [2].

China’s 11% November 2025 rare-earth magnet export decline to the U.S. is an allocation shift rather than a supply shortage, as total Chinese exports reached a near-record 6,150 metric tons. The event underscores the critical nature of rare-earth magnets in high-tech supply chains and accelerates global diversification efforts, including India’s $816 million manufacturing program. MP Materials (MP) has strong upside potential but faces execution challenges, while Lynas (LYC) rebounded after operational disruptions. Short-term volatility is likely, but structural resilience efforts are gaining policy and market support.