2026 Growth Drivers and Business Model Strengths of ASTS, RKLB, and NBIS: Potential for High-Growth Returns

This analysis assesses the 2026 growth drivers and business model strengths of three high-potential companies: AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), Rocket Lab (RKLB), and Nebius Group (NBIS).

AST SpaceMobile operates a disruptive wholesale space-based cellular broadband model, partnering with existing telecom carriers (e.g., Verizon, AT&T, Rakuten) to eliminate customer acquisition costs and turn competitors into revenue-sharing partners [4]. For 2026, key growth drivers include the planned deployment of 45–60 BlueBird satellites (launches every ~45 days) to enable continuous mobile coverage, initial service activations in Canada, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and the UK, over $1.0 billion in contracted revenue commitments, and exclusive L-band spectrum rights via the Ligado acquisition [2][3][5].

Rocket Lab’s dual-segment business model combines small-lift launch services (Electron rocket, the world’s most frequently launched small-lift orbital rocket) and high-margin space systems (components and mission support) [9][10]. In 2026, the maiden flight of the Neutron medium-lift rocket (40x Electron’s capacity) will position RKLB as an alternative to SpaceX’s Falcon 9. Additional drivers include a $1.0 billion+ backlog ($586 million from space systems), an $805 million Space Development Agency defense contract, and an expanded launch schedule [6][8].

Nebius Group focuses on AI infrastructure, offering end-to-end solutions for the AI lifecycle and cloud services [11]. 2026 growth will be fueled by aggressive data center expansion (U.S. and Europe facilities in H1 2026) targeting 2.5 gigawatts of contracted power, a multi-billion dollar Microsoft AI infrastructure agreement, and an ambitious $7–$9 billion ARR target (up from 2025’s $900 million–$1.1 billion guidance) [11][13][14]. The company saw 355% YoY revenue growth in Q3 2025 with capacity fully sold out [14].

All three have experienced strong 2025 YTD growth: ASTS (243%, $21.14 to $75.84), RKLB (177%, $25.43 to $70.52), and NBIS (218%, $28.13 to $89.46) [0].

• ASTS’s Moat via Telecom Partnerships
  : By partnering with existing carriers instead of competing, ASTS avoids costly customer acquisition and gains access to global customer bases, positioning it to tap into the $15 billion annual market for space-based mobile communications [4].
• RKLB’s Diversified Revenue Model
  : The dual launch/space systems segments reduce reliance on launch services, improving margins (gross margins >30% in 2025H2) and creating resilience against launch delays [10].
• NBIS’s Alignment with AI Megatrend
  : The company’s focus on AI infrastructure addresses surging global demand, with the Microsoft partnership validating its technology and supporting rapid scaling to meet its 2026 ARR target [13][14].

• ASTS
  :
  • Opportunities: $15B market access, existing telecom partnerships, exclusive spectrum rights.
  • Risks: BlueBird satellite deployment delays, technical antenna challenges, competition from SpaceX’s Starlink [4].
• RKLB
  :
  • Opportunities: Neutron rocket’s potential as a Falcon 9 alternative, large defense contract, growing space systems backlog.
  • Risks: Neutron maiden flight success, launch schedule execution, defense contract delays [8][10].
• NBIS
  :
  • Opportunities: AI infrastructure boom, Microsoft partnership, aggressive capacity expansion.
  • Risks: Data center execution delays, competition from AWS/Google Cloud, valuation volatility [14].

ASTS, RKLB, and NBIS are positioned in high-growth sectors with distinct business models supporting 2026 growth. ASTS’s wholesale space-based cellular model leverages telecom partnerships, RKLB’s dual segments enhance revenue resilience, and NBIS’s AI infrastructure focus aligns with a booming market. All three have seen significant 2025 YTD growth, but investors should consider deployment, execution, and competitive risks. Market data and growth drivers indicate potential for high returns, but these are balanced by material uncertainties [0].