Analysis of the Impact of the Progress of the Russia-Ukraine Tripartite Talks on Global Markets and Asset Valuations

This analysis is based on external media reports such as Bloomberg and market data [0][1][2][3][4], focusing on the progress of the tripartite talks regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The core of the event is that Ukrainian President Zelensky supports the tripartite talks proposal put forward by the United States, emphasizing the need for substantive results, which reflects a new trend in diplomatic resolution of the conflict.

From the perspective of fact-checking: Zelensky’s support for the U.S. proposal [1][2][3] and the constructive progress of the Ukraine-U.S. dialogue in Florida [3] have been confirmed, but Russia denied discussions of tripartite talks [4]. Currently, only Russian and U.S. officials have held bilateral talks in Florida, and tripartite talks have not been confirmed.

At the market level: From December 1 to 23, 2025, major global stock market indices showed an upward trend: Germany’s DAX index +2.57%, France’s CAC40 index +0.51%, U.S. S&P 500 index +1.43%, U.S. Dow Jones Industrial Average +1.81% [0]. Crude oil prices rose sharply on December 19 due to the Venezuela blockade and attacks on Russian ports, but no direct correlation with the progress of Russia-Ukraine talks was found [0].

1. Geopolitical Risk Pricing and Market Sentiment: Although the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues, the current progress of the talks has not triggered significant market fluctuations, possibly because the market has already priced in geopolitical risks in advance, while paying more attention to factors such as global economic growth and monetary policies [0].
2. Uncertainty in Diplomatic Process: Russia’s denial of tripartite talks has created uncertainty in the process, limiting the market’s expected response to conflict mitigation.
3. Differentiated Impact on Asset Valuations: The rise in stock market indices indicates that the market’s focus on global economic fundamentals outweighs short-term geopolitical dynamics, while crude oil prices are more affected by supply events in other regions and have not formed a direct linkage with the progress of the talks.

1. Risks: Geopolitical risks still exist; drone and missile attacks and other incidents continue in the Ukraine-Russia conflict [0]; the specific content and results of the tripartite talks are still unclear. If the process is blocked, it may trigger market sentiment fluctuations.
2. Opportunities: If the talks achieve substantive progress and regional stability is improved, it may promote the valuation repair of risk assets, especially European stock markets and energy-related assets.
3. Time Sensitivity: In the short term, attention should be paid to the specific progress of the talks and the statements of all parties; in the long term, a comprehensive judgment should be made combining the direction of the conflict and global economic factors.

The progress of the Russia-Ukraine tripartite talks reflects efforts to resolve the conflict diplomatically. The Ukraine-U.S. dialogue has achieved initial constructive results, but Russia denied tripartite talks, so there is uncertainty in the process. Major global stock market indices have generally risen recently, market sentiment is stable, possibly due to geopolitical risks having been priced in. Crude oil price fluctuations are mainly affected by other supply events, with no direct effect from the talks observed. Geopolitical risks still exist, so continuous attention should be paid to the specific progress of the talks and the dynamics of the conflict.