Reassessment of 2025 Investment Value of Lithium Battery Leaders Amid Supply-Demand Mismatch and Policy Tightening

Event background is December 19, 2025 (UTC+8), based on December 2024 lithium battery sector supply-demand, policy and industry dynamics. Core influencing factors include: 1) Lithium carbonate price rose to over 110,000 CNY/ton due to supply-demand mismatch; 2) Lithium demand reached 1.6 million tons in 2024, achieving tight balance and destocking exceeding expectations; 3) Policy tightening such as Jiangxi Natural Resources Access Negative List regulated the industry; 4) CATL’s production schedule adjustment attracted market attention; 5) JXW project EIA delay may exacerbate supply-demand mismatch in 2025-2026.
Combined with internal market data [0], lithium battery leaders’ stock prices performed strongly in 2025: CATL (300750) rose 44.60%, Ganfeng Lithium (002460) rose 53.17%, Tianqi Lithium (002466) rose 39.95%. Financial conditions are clearly differentiated: CATL’s ROE is 22.84% and net profit margin is 16.53%, showing stable financial performance; Ganfeng and Tianqi Lithium have net profit margins of -7.18%/-19.46% respectively, showing phased losses. It should be noted that some core data (such as lithium carbonate price, 2024 demand scale) have not been directly verified through public channels, but the logic of long-term EV battery demand growth supports industry development expectations.

1. Significant industrial chain differentiation
   : Downstream battery manufacturers (such as CATL) have stable financial performance and rising stock prices due to technological and scale advantages; upstream lithium suppliers are under short-term profit pressure but still achieved significant stock price growth due to the certainty of long-term lithium demand.
2. Investor sentiment focuses on long-term demand
   : Despite short-term negative factors such as policy tightening and project delays, the market pays more attention to the long-term demand potential of the EV battery industry, driving lithium battery leaders’ stock prices upward.
3. Tightening regulation becomes industry norm
   : Regulatory measures such as Jiangxi natural resources policies reflect stricter environmental protection requirements, and the impact of lithium battery project approval efficiency on supply-demand balance will continue to emerge.

1. Core data pending verification
   : Key information such as lithium carbonate price and 2024 demand scale has not been directly verified, which may affect the accuracy of trend judgment.
2. Risk of exacerbating supply-demand mismatch
   : Policy tightening and project EIA delays may further expand the supply-demand gap in 2025-2026, intensifying cost fluctuations.
3. Supplier profit pressure
   : The sustainability of the phased loss situation of Ganfeng and Tianqi Lithium is questionable; attention should be paid to cost transmission and demand implementation progress.

1. Long-term growth of EV battery demand
   : The development of the global new energy vehicle industry will continue to support lithium demand, providing growth momentum for the industry.
2. Strong risk resistance of leading enterprises
   : Enterprises with technological and scale advantages such as CATL have shown strong stability amid industry fluctuations.

This analysis objectively presents the December 2024 lithium battery sector’s supply-demand, policy and industry dynamics, 2025 leaders’ stock price performance, industrial chain financial differentiation and investor sentiment characteristics, and prompts unverified data and potential risks. The analysis conclusion is a comprehensive summary of information and does not constitute specific investment advice; investors should make decisions based on their own risk preferences and more verified data.